Obama Leads Likely Republican Challengers

November 7, 2011

From October 25 through November 4, 270toWin conducted a straw poll on the website, asking visitors their preference in various hypothetical 2012 general election match ups. The goal was to not only take the popular vote temperature, but also to translate the votes into an electoral map, to see how that might vary based on the match-ups.

In our straw poll (see disclaimer at bottom), President Obama received more votes than each of the 5 Republicans. The popular vote was close against Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, less so against the other 3 challengers.  Of course, we don't elect our presidents based on popular vote, but rather the electoral vote.   

Match-Up

Popular %

Electoral

Obama   (D)

Romney (R)

46%

42%

252

181

 

Match-Up

Popular %

Electoral

Obama   (D)

Paul  (R)

47%

42%

258

178

 

Match-Up

Popular %

Electoral

Obama   (D)

Gingrich (R)

51%

38%

332

107

 

Match-Up

Popular %

Electoral

Obama   (D)

Cain (R)

51%

39%

347

82

 

Match-Up

Popular %

Electoral

Obama   (D)

Perry (R)

53%

35%

366

65

Caution:  It is important to note that this is a non-scientific poll, meaning those who participated were not chosen at random, nor necessarily distributed in a way reflective of the population as a whole. At this early point in the election cycle, 270toWin draws an audience that is far more interested in politics and the election than the population at large. This audience's opinions about specific candidates or match-ups may not reflect that of the population at large. Furthermore, even if the poll were random, the number of participants in most states was too small to draw a statistically valid conclusion.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

DNC Announces Qualifying Criteria for February 7 Debate

Candidates that earn any pledged delegates in Iowa will make the stage, with an alternate polling and donor path also available.

Minnesota First State to Begin In-Person Early Voting for 2020 Primaries

Vermont to follow Saturday; both states hold their primaries on Super Tuesday, March 3

Liz Cheney Passes on Senate Run, Will Remain in House

While the nominee will be someone else, the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Mike Enzi is safely Republican.

Cory Booker Drops Presidential Bid

The New Jersey Senator had been polling 2-3% nationally; missed the cut for Tuesday's debate

The Road to 270: Idaho

9th in our series: Idaho last voted Democratic in a presidential election back in 1964. Little reason to think that will change in 2020