LIVE ELECTION RESULTS Senate House Governor By State
 


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Kim Wins NJ-3; Midterm Election Sees the Garden State's GOP Delegation Cut from 5 to 1

2016 Presidential Simulation (Clinton vs. Trump)

This isn't a popularity contest™

As you land on this page, a simulated election will be conducted, with all states colored red or blue in about 15 seconds. Each run of the election simulator will populate the electoral map based on a calculated probability in each state.

Take a look at our Battleground 270 page to see the results of 10,000 elections run nightly. While perhaps not as much fun as doing individual simulations, looking at aggregated results can provide a better perspective on the range of plausible election outcomes.

Simulation Order:
Random
Simulation Order:
Poll Closing Times
Clinton
0
Trump
0
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
Split Electoral Votes
ME 3 1
NE 3 1 1

New for 2016: The simulator is no longer coded in Flash, so will work on your mobile device. Results can now split Maine & Nebraska. Finally, you can choose to populate the map randomly or more East-to-West, based on actual poll closing times.

The probabilities are calculated and updated based on recent polling. Where polling is outdated or unavailable, we look back to 2012 actual and/or consider pundit projections. Those probabilities reflect the frequency of victory in a state. For example, if Clinton has an 80% chance of winning Minnesota, she will, in the long run, win 80% of the simulations conducted. Some uncontested states (e.g., Wyoming) will always yield the same result.

The simulator is not a predictor of the election. It provides a range of electoral outcomes that are plausible if the state polls are accurate and if each state were a fully independent event. While each state is, in theory, a separate election, the reality is that there are usually correlations. As a result, this model underplays the likelihood of toss-up states breaking heavily for one candidate or the other.


Amaze your friends with trivial knowledge: There are over two quadrillion (15 zeros) ways that the U.S. map can be colored red or blue.

The calculation is 251, where we have 51 locations (50 states + DC) and two possible outcomes in each location. The number would be exponentially larger still if we included the possibility of a split in Maine/Nebraska or 3rd parties. Of course, with many states not competitive in November, the number of plausible map combinations is much smaller.


Headlines

Kim Wins NJ-3; Midterm Election Sees the Garden State's GOP Delegation Cut from 5 to 1

Only 19 term GOP Rep. Christopher Smith was re-elected

Democrats Win CA-10, Gaining 34th House Seat. 7 Races Remain Undecided

Overall, Democrats will have at least 229 seats heading into 2019. This is the 43rd party win in California alone.

Associated Press: Sinema Wins Arizona Senate Race

This is a Democratic gain -- the seat is currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake. It does not affect GOP control of the chamber, as the party has 51 seats heading into 2019

Uncalled Races Update: Sinema Takes Small Lead in Arizona

Arizona and Florida Senate, Georgia governor and 10 House races remain open

New Mexico 2nd Flips to Democrats; 14 Races Remain Uncalled

Democrats will control the U.S. House with at least 224 seats in 2019



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