2020 Battleground 270

This isn't a popularity contest™

Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results. This lets us see the full range of plausible range of electoral college outcomes, as well as the current probabilities of victory in each state.

Election Winner

Percentage of wins for each candidate

Sep 25
Biden 79.3%
Trump 20.1%
Tie 0.6%

Median Electoral Votes

The midpoint outcome

Sep 25
Biden 329
Trump 209

95% of all simulations fall within the full range displayed.

Results Distribution

All outcomes and frequency of occurrence

Sep 25
Biden
Trump

Chart displays electoral votes for the selected candidate.

Results by State - September 25

Click or tap a state to see its trends over time

State Biden Ties Trump Bellwether1 Tipping Point2
Overall Winning % 79.3% 0.6% 20.1%
Alaska 9.8% 90.2% 30.1% -
Arizona 61.9% 38.1% 76.4% 6.8%
Colorado 93.3% 6.7% 83.8% 2.7%
Connecticut 99.9% 0.1% 79.9% -
Florida 59.4% 40.6% 77.9% 17.7%
Georgia 39.5% 60.5% 59.0% 3.9%
Illinois 99.9% 0.1% 79.9% -
Indiana 1.1% 98.9% 21.3% -
Iowa 42.6% 57.4% 60.9% 1.8%
Kansas 1.5% 98.5% 21.7% -
Louisiana 0.2% 99.8% 20.4% -
Maine 96.9% 3.1% 82.0% 0.2%
Maine 1st 99.9% 0.1% 79.9% -
Maine 2nd 56.8% 43.2% 71.0% 0.8%
Michigan 82.0% 18.0% 86.6% 10.0%
Minnesota 88.3% 11.7% 85.2% 5.0%
Mississippi 0.4% 99.6% 20.6% -
Missouri 1.8% 98.2% 22.0% -
Montana 7.0% 93.0% 27.2% -
Nebraska 1st 0.2% 99.8% 20.4% -
Nebraska 2nd 56.7% 43.3% 71.6% 0.8%
Nevada 84.2% 15.8% 84.7% 2.9%
New Hampshire 79.8% 20.2% 83.5% 2.2%
New Jersey 99.9% 0.1% 79.9% -
New Mexico 99.0% 1.0% 80.6% 0.2%
North Carolina 55.1% 44.9% 72.3% 7.9%
Ohio 42.3% 57.7% 61.7% 5.7%
Oregon 99.7% 0.3% 80.1% 0.1%
Pennsylvania 77.8% 22.2% 86.4% 14.9%
South Carolina 6.7% 93.3% 26.9% -
Texas 28.1% 71.9% 48.4% 3.5%
Utah 0.1% 99.9% 20.3% -
Virginia 94.1% 5.9% 83.6% 4.3%
Wisconsin 78.0% 22.0% 84.6% 7.4%

1 Percentage of simulations where nominee winning state wins the election.
2 The state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering from largest to smallest margin of victory.

Trump >99.9%

1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated nominee.