2020 Battleground 270

This isn't a popularity contest™

Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results. This lets us see the full range of plausible range of electoral college outcomes, as well as the current probabilities of victory in each state.

Election Winner

Percentage of wins for each candidate

Jul 12
Biden 85.0%
Trump 14.4%
Tie 0.5%

Median Electoral Votes

The midpoint outcome

Jul 12
Biden 337
Trump 201

95% of all simulations fall within the full range displayed.

Results Distribution

All outcomes and frequency of occurrence

Jul 12
Biden
Trump

Chart displays electoral votes for the selected candidate.

Results by State - July 12

Click or tap a state to see its trends over time

Biden Ties Trump
Overall Winning % 85.0% 0.5% 14.4%
Alaska 7.1% 92.9%
Arizona 64.9% 35.1%
Colorado 95.4% 4.6%
Florida 72.1% 27.9%
Georgia 44.3% 55.7%
Indiana 1.4% 98.6%
Iowa 46.3% 53.7%
Kansas 0.6% 99.4%
Louisiana 0.2% 99.8%
Maine 94.0% 6.0%
Maine 2nd 47.4% 52.6%
Michigan 86.7% 13.3%
Minnesota 91.0% 9.0%
Mississippi 0.7% 99.3%
Missouri 1.9% 98.1%
Montana 1.9% 98.1%
Nebraska 1st 0.1% 99.9%
Nebraska 2nd 56.1% 43.9%
Nevada 87.4% 12.6%
New Hampshire 84.0% 16.0%
New Mexico 99.3% 0.7%
North Carolina 65.7% 34.3%
Ohio 39.1% 60.9%
Oregon 99.8% 0.2%
Pennsylvania 83.8% 16.2%
South Carolina 2.7% 97.3%
Texas 24.1% 75.9%
Virginia 96.5% 3.5%
Wisconsin 74.6% 25.4%