2024 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of November 4, 2024

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including four independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

This map is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only seats rated safe by all are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party.

November 4: New Mexico Safe to Likely Democrat

Current Senate 118^th Congress

Interactive Map Contested 2024

2025 Senate 119^th Congress

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CT
NJ
DE
MD

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Senate Elections 2024


Current	51 47 4	0	49
Consensus Forecast	48 46 2	0	51	1
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

Current	2024	2026^	2028
47	19	13	15
4	4
49	11	19	19

^ Excludes Nebraska seat with a special election in 2024

The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. 50-50 tie decided by Vice-President (VP)

2024
2026
2028
Show 2024 Candidates

State	Incumbent	Since	Term
AK	Lisa Murkowski	2002	5th
AK
AK	Dan Sullivan	2015	2nd
AK
AL	Katie Britt	2023	1st
AL
AL	Tommy Tuberville	2021	1st
AL
AR	John Boozman	2011	3rd
AR
AR	Tom Cotton	2015	2nd
AR
AZ	Mark Kelly	2020	2nd
AZ
AZ	Kyrsten Sinema	2019	1st
AZ	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024. Ruben Gallego Kari Lake
CA	Alex Padilla	2021	2nd
CA
CO	Michael Bennet	2009	4th
CO
CO	John Hickenlooper	2021	1st
CO
CT	Richard Blumenthal	2011	3rd
CT
DE	Chris Coons	2011	3rd
DE
FL	Marco Rubio	2011	3rd
FL
FL	Rick Scott	2019	1st
FL	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Rick Scott*
GA	Raphael Warnock	2021	2nd
GA
GA	Jon Ossoff	2021	1st
GA
HI	Brian Schatz	2012	3rd
HI
IA	Chuck Grassley	1981	8th
IA
IA	Joni Ernst	2015	2nd
IA
ID	Mike Crapo	1999	5th
ID
ID	Jim Risch	2009	3rd
ID
IL	Tammy Duckworth	2017	2nd
IL
IL	Dick Durbin	1997	5th
IL
IN	Todd Young	2017	2nd
IN
KS	Jerry Moran	2011	3rd
KS
KS	Roger Marshall	2021	1st
KS
KY	Rand Paul	2011	3rd
KY
KY	Mitch McConnell	1985	7th
KY
LA	John Kennedy	2017	2nd
LA
LA	Bill Cassidy	2015	2nd
LA
MA	Ed Markey	2013	3rd
MA
MD	Chris Van Hollen	2017	2nd
MD
MD	Ben Cardin	2007	3rd
MD	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024. Angela Alsobrooks Larry Hogan
ME	Susan Collins	1997	5th
ME
MI	Debbie Stabenow	2001	4th
MI	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024. Elissa Slotkin Mike Rogers
MI	Gary Peters	2015	2nd
MI
MN	Tina Smith	2018	2nd
MN
MO	Eric Schmitt	2023	1st
MO
MS	Cindy Hyde-Smith	2018	2nd
MS
MT	Jon Tester	2007	3rd
MT	Jon Tester* Tim Sheehy
MT	Steve Daines	2015	2nd
MT
NC	Ted Budd	2023	1st
NC
NC	Thom Tillis	2015	2nd
NC
ND	John Hoeven	2011	3rd
ND
NE	Deb Fischer	2013	2nd
NE	Deb Fischer* Dan Osborn
NH	Maggie Hassan	2017	2nd
NH
NH	Jeanne Shaheen	2009	3rd
NH
NJ	Cory Booker	2013	3rd
NJ
NM	Martin Heinrich	2013	2nd
NM	Martin Heinrich* Nella Domenici
NM	Ben Ray Lujan	2021	1st
NM
NV	Catherine Cortez Masto	2017	2nd
NV
NV	Jacky Rosen	2019	1st
NV	Jacky Rosen* Sam Brown
NY	Chuck Schumer	1999	5th
NY
OH	J.D. Vance	2023	1st
OH
OH	Sherrod Brown	2007	3rd
OH	Sherrod Brown* Bernie Moreno
OK	James Lankford	2015	3rd
OK
OK	Markwayne Mullin	2023	1st
OK
OR	Ron Wyden	1996	6th
OR
OR	Jeff Merkley	2009	3rd
OR
PA	John Fetterman	2023	1st
PA
PA	Bob Casey	2007	3rd
PA	Bob Casey* David McCormick
RI	Jack Reed	1997	5th
RI
SC	Tim Scott	2013	3rd
SC
SC	Lindsey Graham	2003	4th
SC
SD	John Thune	2005	4th
SD
SD	Mike Rounds	2015	2nd
SD
TN	Bill Hagerty	2021	1st
TN
TX	Ted Cruz	2013	2nd
TX	Colin Allred Ted Cruz*
TX	John Cornyn	2003	4th
TX
UT	Mike Lee	2011	3rd
UT
VA	Mark Warner	2009	3rd
VA
VT	Peter Welch	2023	1st
VT
WA	Patty Murray	1993	6th
WA
WI	Ron Johnson	2011	3rd
WI
WI	Tammy Baldwin	2013	2nd
WI	Tammy Baldwin* Eric Hovde
WV	Joe Manchin	2011	3rd
WV	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024. Glenn Elliott Jim Justice
WV	Shelley Capito	2015	2nd
WV
WY	Cynthia Lummis	2021	1st
WY
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
CA	Laphonza Butler	2023	1st
CA	Not running for a full term Adam Schiff Steve Garvey
CT	Chris Murphy	2013	2nd
CT	Chris Murphy* Matt Corey
DE	Tom Carper	2001	4th
DE	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024. Lisa Blunt Rochester Eric Hansen
HI	Mazie Hirono	2013	2nd
HI	Mazie Hirono* Bob McDermott
IN	Mike Braun	2019	1st
IN	Retiring to run for governor Valerie McCray Jim Banks
MA	Elizabeth Warren	2013	2nd
MA	Elizabeth Warren* John Deaton
ME	Angus King	2013	2nd
ME	David Costello Demi Kouzounas Angus King*
MN	Amy Klobuchar	2007	3rd
MN	Amy Klobuchar* Royce White
MO	Josh Hawley	2019	1st
MO	Lucas Kunce Josh Hawley*
MS	Roger Wicker	2007	3rd
MS	Ty Pinkins Roger Wicker*
ND	Kevin Cramer	2019	1st
ND	Katrina Christiansen Kevin Cramer*
NE	Pete Ricketts	2023	1st
NE	Preston Love Pete Ricketts*
NJ	George Helmy	2024	1st
NJ	Helmy was appointed to replace Bob Menendez, who resigned Aug. 20 Andy Kim Curtis Bashaw
NY	Kirsten Gillibrand	2009	3rd
NY	Kirsten Gillibrand* Mike Sapraicone
RI	Sheldon Whitehouse	2007	3rd
RI	Sheldon Whitehouse* Patricia Morgan
TN	Marsha Blackburn	2019	1st
TN	Gloria Johnson Marsha Blackburn*
UT	Mitt Romney	2019	1st
UT	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024. Caroline Gleich John Curtis
VA	Tim Kaine	2013	2nd
VA	Tim Kaine* Hung Cao
VT	Bernie Sanders	2007	3rd
VT	Gerald Malloy Bernie Sanders*
WA	Maria Cantwell	2001	4th
WA	Maria Cantwell* Raul Garcia
WY	John Barrasso	2007	3rd
WY	Scott Morrow John Barrasso*