October 7, 2016
A very busy week for poll releases has been mostly favorable for Hillary Clinton, with the Democratic nominee taking a larger lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Including the lastest figures, Clinton now is ahead by more than five points in states representing 240 electoral votes.
While still close overall, perhaps the biggest shift this past week has come in Ohio. Trump was consistently ahead by about 4-5 points in most pre-debate polling; while several polls this week have shown Clinton with a small lead. She now leads by one point on average. This gives her 340 electoral votes in the 'no toss-ups' version of the polling map, where any lead is shown as red or blue.
Another key milestone in the presidential race is this Sunday's 2nd debate. A strong performance by Trump could change the narrative and reverse Clinton's recent bounce. Absent that, particularly with early voting underway in many places, time may be running short on the Republican nominee's efforts to find 270 votes on the electoral map.