2016 Election: Clinton vs. Trump

This isn’t a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election as a Trump vs. Clinton forecast. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

This is the final pre-election polling map. See the State Winners Map for who actually won each state. This map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2016 presidential election primarily based on recent polling. You can see how the map has changed over time. For more information and individual poll results, see the polling averages page. 

Close states (poll difference between Clinton and Trump averaging 5 points or less) are shown as toss up (tan). Leaning states (5-10 points) are a lighter blue/red. Darker blue/red states are averaging a spread of greater than 10 points.

no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
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ME
NE

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Headlines

Cook Political Updates 12 House Ratings

October 21, 2020

The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election

The Road to 270: Iowa

October 19, 2020

After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.

Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight House Forecast

October 15, 2020

Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.

The Road to 270: Florida

October 12, 2020

The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.

Sabato's Crystal Ball Updates Election Outlook

October 8, 2020

Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.

States of Play: Florida

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The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

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Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away

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