2016 Election: Clinton vs. Trump
This isn’t a popularity contest™
This is the final pre-election polling map. See the State Winners Map for who actually won each state. This map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2016 presidential election primarily based on recent polling. You can see how the map has changed over time. For more information and individual poll results, see the polling averages page.
Close states (poll difference between Clinton and Trump averaging 5 points or less) are shown as toss up (tan). Leaning states (5-10 points) are a lighter blue/red. Darker blue/red states are averaging a spread of greater than 10 points.
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Headlines
Cook Political Updates 12 House Ratings
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
The Road to 270: Iowa
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight House Forecast
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Road to 270: Florida
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
Sabato's Crystal Ball Updates Election Outlook
Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.
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