Polling Update for March 5 Through March 8 Primary and Caucus Events

March 3, 2016

Update March 7: For the latest info on the March 8 events, we've created this separate article.


Update March 4: There have been a few more polls since we wrote this yesterday (Thursday). Two changes worth noting:

In Michigan, new polls have pushed Trump's average up into the mid 30s, with Cruz also moving up slightly. A poll today gave Kasich 18%, his strongest showing to date. As Michigan is the largest delegate prize for both parties in the days ahead, expect to see several more polls before Tuesday. (Likely Trump)

Additionally, we have our first Kansas Republican poll with a decent sample size. It gives Trump a 6 point lead over Cruz, with Rubio well back in 3rd. (Leaning Trump).


After Super Tuesday, Donald Trump has approximately 25% of the 1,237 delegates needed for the Republican nomination, while Hillary Clinton is approaching 45% of the 2,382 needed for the Democratic nomination; Clinton's count has benefited from the heavy support of Democratic superdelegates.

The next two debates will occur in Michigan. Republicans (except for Ben Carson) debate tonight in Detroit (Fox News, 9PM ET); Democrats do the same in Flint on Sunday (CNN, 8PM ET).

A summary of upcoming events and polling. Click/tap a state for more details. 


March 5

Kansas (Caucus, 40 delegates): No polling available*; Cruz won nearby Oklahoma primary on Super Tuesday

Kentucky (Caucus, 46): A late February poll had Trump leading Rubio, with Cruz third (Likely Trump)

Louisiana (Primary, 46): A new poll has Trump well ahead of Cruz, with Rubio third (Likely Trump)

Maine (Caucus, 23): No polling available; Trump easily won Massachusetts on Super Tuesday but had a narrow win in Vermont; Kasich finished 2nd in both states

March 6 

Puerto Rico (Primary, 23): No polling available

March 8

Hawaii (Caucus, 19): No polling available  Idaho (Primary, 32): No polling available

Michigan (Primary, 59): Recent polls have Trump averaging in the low 30's, about equal to combined support for Rubio & Cruz. Expect these two, along with Kasich, to battle for 2nd (Likely Trump)

Mississippi (Primary, 40): A poll out today gives Trump 41%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio (Likely Trump)


March 5

Kansas (Caucus, 37 delegates); Nebraska (Caucus, 30 delegates): No polling available*; Sanders won 'nearby' Oklahoma primary on Super Tuesday as well as the two mainland caucus states (Colorado, Minnesota) that day

Louisiana (Primary, 59): Clinton far ahead in two recent polls; one this week had Sanders at 14%, which is below the 15% threshold to receive any delegates (Solid Clinton)

March 6

Maine (Caucus, 30): No polling available; Sanders easily won his home state of Vermont on Super Tuesday, while Massachusetts was extremely competitive

March 8

Michigan (Primary, 147): Easily the biggest Democratic delegate prize during this period. Recent polls have shown an increasing lead for Clinton; now averaging 20 points over Sanders (Likely Clinton)

Mississippi (Primary, 41): A poll out today gives Clinton 65% to Sanders 11%. As in Louisiana, Sanders could be at risk of being shut out of delegates (Solid Clinton) 

* A very small sample Kansas poll was conducted by the Docking Institute at Fort Hays State University in late February. It showed Trump at about 25%, Rubio & Cruz in the mid-teens. Clinton had a lead over Sanders. Lots of undecided. Due to the small sample size, and in the absence of any other polling, caution should be exercised in relying too heavily on this data.

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