270toWin Redesign

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

1,237 Delegates Needed to Win

The Republican Party will nominate a 2016 presidential candidate at its convention in Cleveland the week of July 18, 2016. Primary and caucus events will go through early June.

Estimated Delegates Earned

1,237 delegates needed to win. Not shown: Huckabee, Fiorina and Paul (one each). Candidates in red have withdrawn from the race. Delegate Counts: New York Times

The map below shows the number of delegates each state will send to the Republican convention. Use the filters below the map to view it in different ways. Click a state to see polling detail and an overview of its primary or caucus.

MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
AS
GU
MP
PR
VI
February Super Tues March 2-31 April May June
133 595 868 374 199 303
2,472
Delegates
100%
% of Total

Select a radio button to display the map along the chosen dimension. Use the drop-down boxes to limit the display to specific time, type or allocation method. The number of delegates and percentage of all 2,472 delegates associated with your options will display. Information is estimated and subject to change. Some states have an extended process for choosing delegates; the time used on the map is generally the start of the process. Allocation methods and contest types are categorized based on best fit; select a state on the map for more detail and links to external resources. Special thanks to Greenpapers and FHQ for making it a lot easier to aggregate the data. Visit those sites for the finer details of the state-by-state allocation rules.

National Polls

The results of national polling for a preferred Republican nominee is shown below. While these national polls are directionally interesting, the nominee will ultimately be chosen based on delegates earned during state-by-state primary and caucus votes.

Source Date Sample Trump Cruz Kasich Other
Poll Averages* 45.2% 28.6% 19.2% -
Pew Research 5/05/2016 740 RV 44% 25% 20% 11%
CNN | ORC 5/02/2016 406 RV ±5% 49% 25% 19% 7%
IBD/TIPP 4/29/2016 397 RV ±5% 48% 29% 16% 7%
Suffolk University 4/25/2016 292 LV ±5.7% 45% 29% 17% 9%
NBC News / WSJ 4/18/2016 310 LV ±5.6% 40% 35% 24% 1%
CBS News 4/14/2016 399 LV ±6% 42% 29% 18% 11%
Fox News 4/14/2016 419 LV ±4.5% 45% 27% 25% 3%
PRRI / The Atlantic 4/07/2016 676 RV 37% 31% 23% 9%
McClatchy - Marist 4/06/2016 444 RV ±4.7% 40% 35% 20% 5%
IBD/TIPP 4/04/2016 388 LV ±5.1% 38% 31% 19% 12%
Show:

* The average includes the most recent poll from each source within the past 30 days, up to a maximum of five. If five polls are found, and there are other qualifying polls on that same calendar date, those will also be included.