Forecasts in the Consensus Pundit Electoral Map

The Consensus Pundit Electoral Map aggregates the ratings from 15 organizations to come up with a composite forecast for the 2016 presidential election.

  1. Sabato's Crystal Ball
  2. Cook Political Report
  3. Rothenberg-Gonzales Political Report
  4. FiveThirtyEight (Polls-Plus)
  5. Associated Press
  6. NBC Political Unit 
  7. The Fix (Washington Post)
  8. ABC News
  9. NPR
  10. CNN
  11. Princeton Election Consortium
  12. Fox News
  13. Governing
  14. NYT Upshot
  15. PredictWise

To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, toss-up). From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one. For example, only states rated safe by thirteen or more of the fifteen pundits are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map.