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NBC Places Candidates for First Presidential Debate

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn't a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Map Features | Pundit Forecasts | Historical Elections Timeline

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Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 at 16:26 UTC (12:26 PM EDT)

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Headlines

NBC Places Candidates for First Presidential Debate

Elizabeth Warren and Beto O'Rourke have center stage night one, with Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders side-by-side on the 2nd night

Rep. Susan Brooks to Retire, Putting a Safe GOP Seat in Play for 2020

One of only 13 Republican women in the U.S. House

Groupings for First Democratic Debate

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, who have been 1-2 in most polls, will appear together on the 2nd night

DNC Names Debate Qualifiers

The first Democratic debate will take place over two nights in Miami later this month

Oregon Joins National Popular Vote Compact

15 states and DC, for a total of 196 Electoral Votes have joined; agreement only effective when number reaches 270




About this Site
270towin.com is an interactive Electoral College map for 2020 and a history of Presidential elections in the United States. Since electoral votes are generally allocated on an "all or none" basis by state, the election of a U.S President is about winning the popular vote in enough states to achieve 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 that are available. Receiving the most votes nationwide is irrelevant, as we have seen in two of the most recent five presidential elections where the electoral vote winner and the popular vote winner were different.
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