FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Kentucky, Mississippi Added to House Map; Update on Redistricting in Remaining States
16 states, with a total of 157 districts, have not yet approved a new congressional map for the next 10 years
Overview and Live Results: New York Assembly District 68 Special Election
NYC district vacated when former incumbent, Democrat Robert Rodriguez resigned to be Secretary of State.
Two More Democratic House Members Announce Retirement, Bringing Total to 28
Jerry McNerney of California and Jim Langevin of Rhode Island will step away after this year
New York Republican Rep. John Katko Will Retire
Katko, in his 4th term, was one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Donald Trump
Ohio Supreme Court Invalidates State's New Congressional Map
The GOP controlled legislature has been ordered to create a map not dictated by partisan considerations
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