FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Overview & Live Results: Battleground State House Special Election in Georgia
Georgia will fill two vacancies in its state house, including a battleground district in suburban Atlanta. There's also a special primary in Wisconsin.
Poll: Adams Leads Competitive NYC Mayoral Race; Primary is Next Tuesday
Adams, Garcia, Wiley and Yang all see double-digit support, with Adams reaching majority support in the ranked choice simulation
New Orleans State Senate District 7 Special All Party Primary Election
The former incumbent, Democrat Troy Carter, resigned after being elected to Congress in an April special election.
GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler to Run for Open Missouri U.S. Senate Seat
She joins what will be a crowded field hoping to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Roy Blunt
Rep. Val Demings Announces 2022 Challenge to Sen. Marco Rubio
This move was widely expected and is now official. The Florida senate seat is one of 34 to be contested in 2022.
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