FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Overview and Live Results: Wyoming, Alaska Primaries and Congressional Special Election
Two vociferous critics of Donald Trump will face primary voters; only one is likely to move on to the general election
Overview and Live Results: Hawaii Primary
Open Seats for Governor and Congressional District 2; Democratic nominees will be heavy favorites in November
Republican Brad Finstad Sworn In to the U.S. House; Democrats Hold 220-211 Edge in Seats
Finstad won a special election earlier this week to fill a vacancy in Minnesota's First District
Live Results: Special Election in MN-01; Primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin
Several compelling storylines; the most competitive primary appears to be for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Wisconsin.
Overview and Live Results: Tennessee Primary
Of particular interest is the GOP primary in U.S. House District 5, a Democratic-held seat made much more GOP-friendly in redistricting.
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