FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Wyoming, Alaska Primaries and Congressional Special Election

August 15, 2022

Two vociferous critics of Donald Trump will face primary voters; only one is likely to move on to the general election

Overview and Live Results: Hawaii Primary

August 12, 2022

Open Seats for Governor and Congressional District 2; Democratic nominees will be heavy favorites in November

Republican Brad Finstad Sworn In to the U.S. House; Democrats Hold 220-211 Edge in Seats

August 12, 2022

Finstad won a special election earlier this week to fill a vacancy in Minnesota's First District

Live Results: Special Election in MN-01; Primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin

August 9, 2022

Several compelling storylines; the most competitive primary appears to be for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Wisconsin.

Overview and Live Results: Tennessee Primary

August 4, 2022

Of particular interest is the GOP primary in U.S. House District 5, a Democratic-held seat made much more GOP-friendly in redistricting.

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 10, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes...

Reassessing the Race for the Senate

Dear Readers: Today through Tuesday, we’re celebrating...

Notes on the State of Politics: August 3, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes...