270toWin Redesign

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 at 16:26 UTC (12:26 PM EDT)

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Tossup 3P
           
       
State District
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NE

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Headlines

Democratic Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey to Switch to GOP

December 14, 2019

The freshman, who has been an opponent of impeachment, met with Trump on Friday

Rep. Ted Yoho of Florida Won't Run in 2020

December 11, 2019

Will honor pledge to only serve four terms in Congress

Andrew Yang Qualifies for Final Presidential Debate of 2019

December 10, 2019

He's the seventh candidate to make the December 19 debate stage

The Road to 270: Oklahoma

December 9, 2019

The fourth in a weekly series that will cover each state's political landscape leading up to the 2020 presidential election

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