FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 at 16:26 UTC (12:26 PM EDT)
Headlines
The Road to 270: Washington
An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.
The Road to 270: Mississippi
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.
Hawaii Democratic Primary Results
Rescheduled from April 4, this party primary was conducted exclusively by mail
House Ratings Changes from Inside Elections
15 seats were updated, 7 of which moved to safe for the November elections
2020 Electoral Map Based on Polling Averages
This far out, polling may be of limited predictive value, but it will become more and more relevant as November draws closer
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