FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley Will Seek an 8th Term in 2022
Ending months of suspense, the 88 year old Republican announced his intention early Friday morning
Republican Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez Not Running in 2022
He was one of ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump
Early Voting Begins in Virginia Gubernatorial Election
Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin look to succeed term-limited Gov. Ralph Northam (D).
Overview and Live Results: California Gubernatorial Recall Election
An expensive effort to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office ends with Tuesday's vote. Recent polling indicates the recall will fail.
Overview and Live Results: State House Special Elections in Iowa and Tennessee
Winners will complete the term of two legislators who died earlier this year
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