FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Sen. Mike Braun to Run for Indiana Governor in 2024
The freshman Republican will attempt to succeed termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb
Virginia Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin Dies at 61
He had been elected to a fourth term in Congress earlier this month
Alaska Ranked Choice Runoff Results
The tabulation will determine winners in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races
House Update: Four Seats Uncalled; GOP Majority Will Have 220-222 Seats
The outcome of two of the races is all but certain, the other two - in California - could go either way
Republicans Clinch House Majority; Divided Government Returns to DC in January
It will be a narrow majority; eight seats remain to be called
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