FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
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Headlines

Kentucky, Mississippi Added to House Map; Update on Redistricting in Remaining States

January 23, 2022

16 states, with a total of 157 districts, have not yet approved a new congressional map for the next 10 years

Overview and Live Results: New York Assembly District 68 Special Election

January 18, 2022

NYC district vacated when former incumbent, Democrat Robert Rodriguez resigned to be Secretary of State.

Two More Democratic House Members Announce Retirement, Bringing Total to 28

January 18, 2022

Jerry McNerney of California and Jim Langevin of Rhode Island will step away after this year

New York Republican Rep. John Katko Will Retire

January 14, 2022

Katko, in his 4th term, was one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Donald Trump

Ohio Supreme Court Invalidates State's New Congressional Map

January 14, 2022

The GOP controlled legislature has been ordered to create a map not dictated by partisan considerations

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