FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
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Headlines

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley Will Seek an 8th Term in 2022

September 24, 2021

Ending months of suspense, the 88 year old Republican announced his intention early Friday morning

Republican Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez Not Running in 2022

September 17, 2021

He was one of ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump

Early Voting Begins in Virginia Gubernatorial Election

September 17, 2021

Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin look to succeed term-limited Gov. Ralph Northam (D).

Overview and Live Results: California Gubernatorial Recall Election

September 14, 2021

An expensive effort to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office ends with Tuesday's vote. Recent polling indicates the recall will fail.

Overview and Live Results: State House Special Elections in Iowa and Tennessee

September 14, 2021

Winners will complete the term of two legislators who died earlier this year

Can Democrats Win Back the White Working Class?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — One of the defining...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 22, 2021

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on...

The JFK Records Act: Will There Be a Final Chapter?

Dear Readers: While we usually focus on election-related...