FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
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NE

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Headlines

Sen. Mike Braun to Run for Indiana Governor in 2024

November 30, 2022

The freshman Republican will attempt to succeed termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb

Virginia Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin Dies at 61

November 29, 2022

He had been elected to a fourth term in Congress earlier this month

Alaska Ranked Choice Runoff Results

November 23, 2022

The tabulation will determine winners in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races

House Update: Four Seats Uncalled; GOP Majority Will Have 220-222 Seats

November 19, 2022

The outcome of two of the races is all but certain, the other two - in California - could go either way

Republicans Clinch House Majority; Divided Government Returns to DC in January

November 16, 2022

It will be a narrow majority; eight seats remain to be called

The New Crossover Members of the House

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Book Excerpt: The Republican Evolution: From Governing Party to Antigovernment Party

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2022’s Split Ticket States

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What Happened in the States

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