FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
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Headlines

Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

September 22, 2020

Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight

The Road to 270: Texas

September 21, 2020

With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground

Polling Map with No Toss-ups

September 16, 2020

This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin

Delaware Wraps up the 2020 Primary Season: Overview and Live Results

September 15, 2020

The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection

The Road to 270: Wisconsin

September 14, 2020

50 days from the presidential election, we look at this Midwestern battleground that, prior to Trump's win, had not voted Republican for president since 1984

Rating Changes: Maine Senate Moves to Leans Democratic

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The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasts of the 2020 Presidential Election

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The Dreaded 269-269 Scenario: An Update

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The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part Two: The Electoral College

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden is better...