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New FiveThirtyEight Governors Forecast

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

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The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Map Features | Map Library | Pundit Forecasts | Historical Elections Timeline
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184
Republican
153

54
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Excl. faithless electors Details >>
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District 1 2 3
ME 2 1 1
NE 2 1 1 1
Split Electoral Votes
Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 8:26 AM (ET)

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Headlines

New FiveThirtyEight Governors Forecast

The site's forecast models now cover the Senate, House and this year's 36 gubernatorial contests.

Three Weeks Out: Updating the Battle for Senate Control

Democratic hopes for gaining control of the Senate seem to have narrowed in recent weeks

Uncontested: 42 House Races with no Major Party Opposition

There are 39 seats held by Democrats and 3 by Republicans that will not have a candidate of the other major party on the ballot this November.

House Simulator Update and New Feature

You can now see which seats flipped to the other party in your most recent simulation.

Five Weeks Out: Consensus Forecasts for Senate, House, Governor

Democrats have plenty of opportunities to gain the 23 seats they need for control. While Democrats also have a path in the Senate, that's a much tougher climb.




About this Site
270towin.com is an interactive Electoral College map for 2020 and a history of Presidential elections in the United States. Since electoral votes are generally allocated on an "all or none" basis by state, the election of a U.S President is about winning the popular vote in enough states to achieve 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 that are available. Receiving the most votes nationwide is irrelevant, as we have seen in two of the most recent five presidential elections where the electoral vote winner and the popular vote winner were different.
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