FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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VT
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DC

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Headlines

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10

November 10, 2024

One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 8

November 8, 2024

Republicans need to win just two of the 15 uncalled elections to retain the majority in the House.

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 7

November 7, 2024

Two Senate and two dozen House races remain uncalled. Republicans need six more House wins to retain the majority.

The Seven Presidential Battlegrounds

November 5, 2024

These seven states - worth 93 electoral votes - have been the focus of the presidential election since the beginning of the cycle

Secondary Presidential Battlegrounds

November 5, 2024

While the experts favor Harris or Trump in these states, one or more surprises can't be ruled out