FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Map :
Top Democratic Donor Gives to Nikki Haley Super PAC
Fewer Young People Plan to Vote Next Year
The Danger Ahead
Trump Shares Column Warning About His Second Term
Trump Turns to Fringe Theories as His Legal Defense
Headlines
Live Results: December 5 Legislative Special Elections
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum Suspends Presidential Campaign
Despite qualifying for the first two debates, he was unable to gain much traction in his quest for the Republican nomination
George Santos Expelled from House of Representatives
311 members voted to remove the New York Republican from office
Celeste Maloy Sworn In; U.S. House Back at Full Strength
The Utah Republican won a special election earlier this month to fill the vacancy created when Chris Stewart resigned
California Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo to Retire Next Year
First elected in 1992, she will complete her 16th term in 2024
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