FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 at 16:26 UTC (12:26 PM EDT)

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
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Headlines

The Road to 270: Washington

June 1, 2020

An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.

The Road to 270: Mississippi

May 25, 2020

At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.

Hawaii Democratic Primary Results

May 23, 2020

Rescheduled from April 4, this party primary was conducted exclusively by mail

House Ratings Changes from Inside Elections

May 23, 2020

15 seats were updated, 7 of which moved to safe for the November elections

2020 Electoral Map Based on Polling Averages

May 21, 2020

This far out, polling may be of limited predictive value, but it will become more and more relevant as November draws closer

Republican Presidential Primary Turnout: Trump vs Bush

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Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden

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Trump-Pence: The Ticket That Seems (Almost) Certain for a 2020 Reprise

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Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016

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