FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 at 16:26 UTC (12:26 PM EDT)
Headlines
Democratic Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey to Switch to GOP
The freshman, who has been an opponent of impeachment, met with Trump on Friday
Rep. Ted Yoho of Florida Won't Run in 2020
Will honor pledge to only serve four terms in Congress
Andrew Yang Qualifies for Final Presidential Debate of 2019
He's the seventh candidate to make the December 19 debate stage
The Road to 270: Oklahoma
The fourth in a weekly series that will cover each state's political landscape leading up to the 2020 presidential election
Introducing the 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator
The road to 1,990 pledged delegates begins in Iowa on February 3. See how the candidates are doing based on polling.
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