FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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ME
NE

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Headlines

Live Results: Jacksonville Mayor, Georgia State House Special Election

March 21, 2023

Voters in the largest city with a Republican mayor select a replacement for the term-limited incumbent.

Live Results: Oklahoma Marijuana Legalization

March 7, 2023

A yes vote in this special election would make Oklahoma the 22nd state to legalize recreational marijuana

Live Florida Election Results: Tampa Mayor, House District 24 Special GOP Primary

March 7, 2023

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor should cruise to a 2nd term; five Republicans compete for an Ocala-area House vacancy

Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections

February 28, 2023

An early April runoff is all but certain; the big question for Tuesday is whether incumbent Lori Lightfoot will advance.

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate

February 27, 2023

She is looking to succeed her fellow Democrat, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who is not seeking reelection in 2024

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