FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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VT
NH
MA
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CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Top Democratic Donor Gives to Nikki Haley Super PAC

New York Times: “Reid Hoffman, the billionaire co-founder of LinkedIn and a...

Fewer Young People Plan to Vote Next Year

“Fewer voters under age 30 plan to vote in the upcoming presidential election...

The Danger Ahead

David Frum: “In his first term, Trump’s corruption and brutality were mitigated...

Trump Shares Column Warning About His Second Term

Donald Trump shared a Washington Post op-ed warning that his second term will be...

Trump Turns to Fringe Theories as His Legal Defense

There’s never been a clear line between Donald Trump’s presidential campaign...

Headlines

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum Suspends Presidential Campaign

December 4, 2023

Despite qualifying for the first two debates, he was unable to gain much traction in his quest for the Republican nomination

George Santos Expelled from House of Representatives

December 1, 2023

311 members voted to remove the New York Republican from office

Celeste Maloy Sworn In; U.S. House Back at Full Strength

November 30, 2023

The Utah Republican won a special election earlier this month to fill the vacancy created when Chris Stewart resigned

California Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo to Retire Next Year

November 21, 2023

First elected in 1992, she will complete her 16th term in 2024