FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast
Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight
The Road to 270: Texas
With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground
Polling Map with No Toss-ups
This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin
Delaware Wraps up the 2020 Primary Season: Overview and Live Results
The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection
The Road to 270: Wisconsin
50 days from the presidential election, we look at this Midwestern battleground that, prior to Trump's win, had not voted Republican for president since 1984
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