PredictWise Presidential Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from the PredictWise state-level probabilities. PredictWise uses the wisdom of the crowd, via real-money prediction markets, to determine the likelihood of events. In this case, it is the likelihood of a state going to Clinton or Trump. 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.

no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 at 16:30 UTC (12:30 PM EDT)

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Tossup 3P
           
       
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Headlines

The Road to 270: South Dakota

January 27, 2020

This deep red state has only voted Democratic in a presidential election four times since it was admitted to the union in 1889.

Andrew Yang Qualifies for February 7 Democratic Debate

January 26, 2020

Entrepreneur returns to the stage after missing the cut in January

Poll: Sanders Takes Lead in Iowa Caucuses

January 25, 2020

The Vermont Senator received 25% support, up 6 points from the same poll in late October

Current Polling Averages: National and Four Early States

January 24, 2020

Biden has a small lead over Sanders nationally, but it's a four-way battle in Iowa

The Road to 270: Vermont

January 20, 2020

A deep-blue state today, but also one that voted Republican in 27 consecutive presidential elections

Trump Not Immune to the Usual Down-Ballot Presidential Penalty

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After just three...

In the South, Congressional Black Caucus Members Win Uncommon Crossover

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Across the South,...

Ratings Changes: Senate, House, and Governor

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Kansas Senate...