Upshot Presidential Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
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ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Headlines

Overview & Live Results: Primary Day in Georgia, Alabama, and Arkansas; Runoff Elections in Texas

May 24, 2022

The value of an endorsement from Donald Trump will be put to the test in a number of nominating contests.

Live Results: Minnesota Congressional District Special Primary Election

May 24, 2022

The district has been vacant since the February death of Republican Jim Hagedorn. Special general election will be August 9.

Live Results: State House Special Elections in New York and South Carolina

May 24, 2022

There is one vacancy in each state that will be filled Tuesday

New York Court Finalizes Congressional Map; Shapes Added to Interactive Map

May 23, 2022

The map replaces one ruled a Democratic gerrymander by this same court in late March

Florida Court of Appeals Reinstates Previously Enacted Redistricting Map

May 20, 2022

Further litigation, in front of the Florida Supreme Court, is likely

The Battle for State Legislatures

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Notes on the State of Politics: May 18, 2022

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The Kinds of Seats that Flip in Midterms

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Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022

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