Upshot Presidential Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.
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Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 at 16:26 UTC (12:26 PM EDT)
Headlines
Rep. Steve King Loses Primary; Seat Moves to Safe Republican in November
Nine-term term incumbent becomes 2nd member to lose primary in 2020
Nine States and DC Hold Primaries Today: Overview and Live Results
On one of the busier days of the reshuffled calendar, Joe Biden has a chance to clinch the nomination. However, a late change in Pennsylvania may delay that opportunity.
The Road to 270: Washington
An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.
The Road to 270: Mississippi
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.
Hawaii Democratic Primary Results
Rescheduled from April 4, this party primary was conducted exclusively by mail
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