Upshot Presidential Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.

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Headlines
Overview & Live Results: Primary Day in Georgia, Alabama, and Arkansas; Runoff Elections in Texas
The value of an endorsement from Donald Trump will be put to the test in a number of nominating contests.
Live Results: Minnesota Congressional District Special Primary Election
The district has been vacant since the February death of Republican Jim Hagedorn. Special general election will be August 9.
Live Results: State House Special Elections in New York and South Carolina
There is one vacancy in each state that will be filled Tuesday
New York Court Finalizes Congressional Map; Shapes Added to Interactive Map
The map replaces one ruled a Democratic gerrymander by this same court in late March
Florida Court of Appeals Reinstates Previously Enacted Redistricting Map
Further litigation, in front of the Florida Supreme Court, is likely

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