Upshot Presidential Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Ranked Choice Voting, Other Election Changes Impact NYC Mayoral Primary
Democratic nominee - who will be a heavy favorite in November - may not be known for several weeks
New Feature: 2021 House of Representatives Map
In advance of redistricting, a look at the current partisan composition of the House, including a table of incumbents and 2020 margins
Overview & Live Results: Battleground State House Special Election in Georgia
Georgia will fill two vacancies in its state house, including a battleground district in suburban Atlanta. There's also a special primary in Wisconsin.
Poll: Adams Leads Competitive NYC Mayoral Race; Primary is Next Tuesday
Adams, Garcia, Wiley and Yang all see double-digit support, with Adams reaching majority support in the ranked choice simulation
New Orleans State Senate District 7 Special All Party Primary Election
The former incumbent, Democrat Troy Carter, resigned after being elected to Congress in an April special election.
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