Upshot Presidential Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley Will Seek an 8th Term in 2022
Ending months of suspense, the 88 year old Republican announced his intention early Friday morning
Republican Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez Not Running in 2022
He was one of ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump
Early Voting Begins in Virginia Gubernatorial Election
Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin look to succeed term-limited Gov. Ralph Northam (D).
Overview and Live Results: California Gubernatorial Recall Election
An expensive effort to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office ends with Tuesday's vote. Recent polling indicates the recall will fail.
Overview and Live Results: State House Special Elections in Iowa and Tennessee
Winners will complete the term of two legislators who died earlier this year
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