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National, Early State Polling Averages as of 4th Democratic Debate

Upshot Presidential Forecast

This isn't a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.

Map Features | Pundit Forecasts | Historical Elections Timeline

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As of Sep. 30, 2019 Details >>
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
District 1 2 3
ME 2 1 1
NE 2 1 1 1
Split Electoral Votes
Map Updated: Jul. 7, 2017 at 16:26 UTC (12:26 PM EDT)

Customize your map by changing one or more states; return here to share it.

Headlines

National, Early State Polling Averages as of 4th Democratic Debate

Nationally, Biden maintains a small lead over Warren but trails her in Iowa and New Hampshire

Louisiana Gubernatorial Race Moves to Runoff Election

Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards finished with the most votes, but was short of the 50% needed to avoid runoff

Election for Governor of Louisiana: Overview and Results

Incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards is seeking a 2nd term. He needs a majority of the vote to avoid a November runoff

Dates Announced for General Election Presidential Debates

Three debates will be held, along with one between nominees for the vice-presidency

Last in, First Out? Gabbard Threatens Debate Boycott

The congresswoman from Hawaii was the final qualifier for next Tuesday's debate


About this Site
270towin.com is an interactive Electoral College map for 2020 and a history of Presidential elections in the United States. Since electoral votes are generally allocated on an "all or none" basis by state, the election of a U.S President is about winning the popular vote in enough states to achieve 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 that are available. Receiving the most votes nationwide is irrelevant, as we have seen in two of the most recent five presidential elections where the electoral vote winner and the popular vote winner were different.
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