2022 House Election Forecasts

These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast.

2022 House Forecast: Consensus Forecast

A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of these forecasters. Only districts rated safe by four of the five forecasts are shown in the darkest shade. You can also view these ratings as a table.

The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast.

August 10: AK-01, MN-01 and WA-03 move from Safe to Likely Republican. 

 

Crystal Ball 2022 House Ratings

The latest 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast.  You can also view these ratings as a table.

The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable

August 10: MN-01 moves from Safe to Likely Republican.

Cook Political Report 2022 House Ratings

The latest 2022 House ratings from The Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast.  You can also view these ratings as a table.

The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable.

August 10: MI-10 moves from Leans to Likely Republican; WA-03 moves from Safe to Leans Republican.

Inside Elections 2022 House Ratings

The latest 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast.  You can also view these ratings as a table.

The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable.

August 4: IL-17 moves from Tilts Democratic to Toss-up; MI-03 Toss-up to Tilts Democratic; MI-10 Tilts to Leans Republican

FiveThirtyEight House Forecast

This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022.

Fox News 2022 House Power Rankings

The latest 2022 House Power Rankings from Fox News.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast.

July 11: Initial ratings

Split Ticket 2022 House Ratings

The latest 2022 House ratings from Split Ticket, a political content and mapping site run by #ElectionTwitter veterans @thomas_armin, @HWLavelleMaps@lxeagle17, and @politicsmaps.  

The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable

Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast.

August 11: MN-01 moves from Safe to Likely Republican

Elections Daily 2022 House Ratings

The latest 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage.

The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable

Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast.

August 8: AZ-06 moves from Leans to Likely Republican; CA-27 Leans Republican to Toss-up; GA-02 Leans to Likely Democratic; MI-03 Toss-up to Leans Democratic; WA-03 Safe to Likely Republican. Read the analysis >