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Two Days Out: Super Tuesday Republican Polling Update

February 28, 2016

Super Tuesday is less than 48 hours away, with contests being held in 13 states on March 1. This will be the busiest date of the Republican nominating calendar. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Note that most delegates on this date will be allocated proportionately, either based on the statewide result, or some combination of statewide and each Congressional District. There is also usually a minimum threshold to claim any delegates. 

Click/tap a state for more details:

Alabama (Primary, 50 delegates): Two recent polls had Trump averaging 37%, Cruz and Rubio below 20% (Likely Trump)

Alaska (Caucus, 28): A January poll showed Trump & Cruz separated by 4 points (Toss-up)

Arkansas (Primary, 40): A poll earlier this month had Cruz, Trump & Rubio within 4 points (Toss-up)

Colorado (Caucus, 37): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 76): Several polls out this past week had Trump well ahead; Cruz & Rubio tight for 2nd. The state offers the 2nd most Republican delegates on Super Tuesday (Likely Trump)

Massachusetts (Primary, 42): Recent polls have Trump averaging in the mid-40s; Rubio & Kasich fighting for 2nd (Solid Trump)

Minnesota (Caucus, 38): A late January poll showed a pretty close 3-way race with Rubio, Cruz & Trump (Toss-up)

Oklahoma (Primary, 43): Trump appears to hold a small lead over a surging Rubio and neighboring state Senator Cruz (Leans Trump)

Tennessee (Primary, 58): A poll out today gives Trump 40%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio (Likely Trump)

Texas (Primary, 155): The big delegate prize on Super Tuesday; Cruz is averaging about 10 points ahead of Trump and will likely prevail in his home state (Likely Cruz)

Vermont (Primary, 16): A poll out this past week (very small sample size) had Trump well ahead of Rubio and Kasich (Likely Trump)

Virginia (Primary, 49): Two most recent polls give Trump a large lead; Rubio may have a slight lead over Cruz for 2nd (Likely Trump)

Wyoming (Caucus, 29): No polling; delegates won't be known until a later date

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