Election News

Rep. Greg Pence (IN-06) said Tuesday that he will not run for reelection this year. He is the fifth Republican to announce a planned departure from the U.S. House since the beginning of the year. Overall, however, there are still more Democrats leaving than Republicans - the count is now 23-17. This includes two pending resignations, one from each party.

Rep. Larry Bucshon (IN-08) announced his retirement Monday. The seven-term Republican will leave the House at the end of this term.

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— Larry Bucshon, MD (@RepLarryBucshon) January 8, 2024

Indiana's 8th Congressional District is located in the southern part of the state, bordering Illinois to the west, and Kentucky to the south. It includes the cities of Evansville and Terre Haute. Bucshon won his final term by a 34% margin in 2022 and the district is seen as safely Republican despite the loss of incumbency.

Bucshon is the fourth House departure - all Republicans - announced in the past week. This brings the total to 39 current members who are retiring, resigning before the end of the term, or running for another office. The list now includes 23 Democrats and 16 Republicans.

Rep. Doug Lamborn of Colorado said Friday that he will not seek reelection this year. He was reelected for his 9th term by a 16% margin in 2022.

Lamborn is the 38th current U.S. House member to announce they are retiring, resigning before the end of the term, or seeking another office.

As CBS News reports, "His retirement opens up all three Republican-controlled seats in the upcoming 2024 election. Rep. Ken Buck, who represents Colorado's 4th Congressional District (Douglas County, Eastern Plains, and northeast Colorado) announced his retirement from Congress in November 2023, and Rep. Lauren Boebert, who currently represents Colorado's 3rd Congressional District (Western Slope and southern Colorado) announced in late December that she will run for Buck's current seat in CD-4."

Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer said Thursday that he will retire at the end of this term. 

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— Blaine Luetkemeyer (@RepBlaine) January 4, 2024

Luetkemeyer represents the oddly-shaped, safely Republican 3rd congressional district. He was reelected to his eighth term in 2022 by a 30% margin. 

This brings to 37 the number of current House members not seeking reelection this November. This includes two members who have announced they will be leaving before the end of the term.  

Rep. John Curtis (UT-03) is joining an increasingly crowded field seeking the 2024 Republican nomination for U.S. Senator from Utah. Incumbent Mitt Romney is retiring from the safely Republican seat. 

Other notables in the race include Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson, as well as Brent Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch. The elder Hatch held this same seat for 42 years before retiring in 2018. The Utah statewide primary (for offices other than president) is June 25.  

Curtis is completing his 4th term in the U.S. House. As with all four of the state's congressional districts, it is safely Republican. Curtis was reelected with a 35% margin of victory in 2022.

The second day of the year brings the first election of 2024. 

South Carolina State Senate District 19

Republicans hold a 30-14 partisan edge over Democrats in the South Carolina State Senate. There is one independent. Members serve four-year terms; the next regular elections are this November.

2024 begins with two vacancies in the U.S. House. One is in CA-20, where former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's resignation was effective as of December 31. The other vacancy is in NY-03; George Santos was expelled on December 1. 

With these departures, the Republican majority has narrowed. When the House reconvenes next week, the party will hold 220 seats, with Democrats controlling 213.

Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert said Wednesday that she will seek reelection to Congress in Colorado's 4th congressional district, switching from District 3, where she is currently completing her second term. 

The move allows her to avoid a prospective rematch against Adam Frisch, a well-funded Democrat who came within roughly 500 votes of defeating the incumbent in 2022. The race was the closest U.S. House race that year, despite the conservative lean of the district. 

We wrote earlier this month about several Oklahoma legislative special elections as the final ones for 2023.  It turns out things weren't quite finished, which brings us to Thursday's State House special election in Delaware.

Delaware State House District 37

Democrats hold a 26-14 partisan edge in the Delaware House of Representatives. There is one vacancy to be filled with this special election. Members serve two year terms; the next regular elections are in 2024.

While clearly not today's biggest news around the 2024 presidential election, we wanted to note two ratings changes from The Cook Political Report.

The forecaster moved Michigan and Nevada from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. These were the first updates since their initial ratings were released this past summer. Read the analysis ($)>