Election News

Trump Wins Pennsylvania; 6 Electoral Votes from Presidency

November 9, 2016

Donald Trump won Pennsylvania early Wednesday morning, bringing his total to 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the 270 needed to win the presidential election.

 


Headlines From Political Wire

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Decision Time for Republicans to Avoid a Shutdown

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Dissatisfaction With Ryan, Congress Is Growing

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that Americans hold dim views of Congress and of House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). “Nearly three-quarters...

Trump Jokes About Firing Nikki Haley

President Trump joked that if members of the United Nations Security Council don’t like U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley, she “could easily be replaced,”...

Le Pen Steps Down as Party Leader

Marine Le Pen said she’s stepping aside as leader of far-right National Front party as she seeks French presidency in order to “unite all French...

Electoral Map as of 1AM

November 9, 2016

Here's the electoral map as of about 1:00AM Eastern Time

 
Quite a few states that haven't gone red in a generation remain, enough to put Hillary Clinton over 270 electoral votes. At this point, however, she looks to be the underdog. 
 

Election Night Content

November 8, 2016

If you'd like a summary of what to watch for tonight, see this excellent hour-by-hour election guide.

Here's where we'll be updating results on 270toWin tonight:

President: As states are called, they'll appear in the table in the bottom half of the page.  The electoral vote count will change, along with an updated probability of victory for Clinton and Trump and other stats. The electoral map on the top half of the page will also fill in.

We'll also be updating a map in the iPad App. Go to The Library > 2016 Projections.  The first map there is the Election Night Map.  Tap the Refresh button to see the latest state results.  

Senate: Democrats need to gain 4 (if Clinton wins) or 5 to take control. The map will fill in as states are called; use the Forecast button to see expectations for the uncalled races. The table to the right will summarize the results, making it easier to see who is on track to control the Senate.  Any party gains will be displayed in the table under the map.

House: Same concept as the Senate map; Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take control. The table below the map shows the most competitive races; click any state to see all the results for that state.

Governor: Only 12 gubernatorial elections this year; we'll fill in the map as those results are known.

The home page interactive electoral map will not be updated tonight. It remains available for you to create and share your own forecasts. For those looking for the Road to 270 combinations calculator, it is now available as a standalone version. There's also a related calculator for tie combinations.

Finally, here's a list of poll closing times. This is a guide for when results will begin to be reported by the media, not when your particular polling place may be open.


Final Tally of Electoral Map Forecasts

November 8, 2016

In our final look at the electoral projections, there remains quite a bit of variability in opinion across the experts we've been following. Aside from CNN, all have Clinton across 270 electoral votes, although most have her well short of that total when totaling the states that are the most secure (safe + likely ratings). Most of the forecasts have Clinton leading in states with either 274 or 322 electoral votes.  The main difference seems to be expectations for Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire: some have those lean Clinton, others still see them as toss-ups. 

You can review the forecasts, and associated maps on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

 

Aggregating the forecasts, and then placing them in categories, we end up with this consensus map.  Note that these aren't averages. For example, only states called 'safe' by 14 or 15 pundits are shown in the darkest color below.

 

In the final map here, we show all the toss-ups assigned to the candidate ahead when all the forecasts are aggregated. The pundits have a slight preference for Clinton to win all three of Florida, New Hampshire and North Carolina, with Trump seen as prevailing in Ohio. The closest to a coin flip is Maine's 2nd Congressional District; Trump will eke that out if the consensus is correct.


Final Crystal Ball: Clinton Wins with 322 Electoral Votes; Tied Senate Gives Democrats Control

November 7, 2016

The final projection from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is a Clinton victory with 322 electoral votes vs. 216 for Donald Trump. This is an increase of 29 over their prior forecast - as Florida moved to lean Clinton from toss-up. At the same time, however, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire were moved to the lean category from likely. As a result, Clinton's favored total (safe + likely) has dropped below 270. Texas was returned to safe Republican.

 

The accompanying Senate forecast projects a 50-50 tie in that body. If the prediction for a Clinton presidency is correct, that would give Democrats control of the Senate in January. In the House, Democrats are projected to gain 13 seats, well short of the 30 the party would need to gain control.


Final NBC Battleground Map Projects Clinton at 274 Electoral Votes

November 7, 2016

The NBC Political Unit's final battleground map projects Hillary Clinton at 274 electoral votes, four more than the 270 required to be elected president. Their forecast is little changed from the prior week. Utah was moved from toss-up to lean Trump and Georgia from lean Trump back to toss-up. Recent polling supports these changes. McMullin's momentum seems to have slowed in Utah, while the latest Georgia poll conducted for NBC showed just a one-point Trump lead.


Poll Closing Times Updated for 2016

November 4, 2016

We've updated our poll closing times page for 2016. This is not meant to be a guide for when any specific polling place is open, but rather to indicate the expected latest closing times for each state. This is important in that it should be the earliest time that the AP and/or broadcast networks will announce the winner of that state's electoral votes.  Other statewide contests, such as Senator and governor, if applicable, should also hold to these timeframes.  We'll be updating an electoral map on Tuesday night. In addition, we'll have Congressional pages, that include a map and a table that will let you track who is going to control the House and Senate in the 115th Congress. Links to follow on these.

 


Electoral College Ratings as of November 3rd

November 3, 2016

Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has continued to decrease since our last review of electoral forecasts on October 31st. One theme in recent days is forecasters moving some states that had previously been considered toss-ups into the leaning Trump category. Most notable are Ohio and Iowa, states that voted twice for Barack Obama.

Hillary Clinton now averages 288 electoral votes, down about five from the 31st. Donald Trump is at 193, a gain of ten. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters. 


Electoral College Projections as of October 31st

October 31, 2016

Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has eroded somewhat since our last review of electoral forecasts on October 26th. Much of the change has been around forecasters moving states to toss-up that they had previously characterized as leaning toward Clinton.

Several forecasters followed this reclassification with Florida as it has tightened considerably in the polls. Trump has led in two of the last four polls there and only trailing by one in the other two. With its 29 electoral votes, the Sunshine State is pretty close to a must-win for the Republican nominee.

Hillary Clinton now averages 293 electoral votes, down 13 from last Wednesday. Donald Trump is at 183, a gain of four. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Weekend Polling Update

October 30, 2016

Poll releases are generally less frequent on the weekend. Not the case on this, the 2nd to final weekend before the 2016 presidential election. The graphic below shows what we've seen this Sunday morning as of about 9:45 Eastern Time. Click it for all the most recent polling (both president and Senate). Click a row to see all the polling for that state.

 

In terms of the polling electoral map, there has been little change in where states fall (toss-up, leaning etc.)  However, Trump has regained a very small lead in Arizona, moving it to red in our 'no-tossups' polling map (below). This map shows which candidate is ahead in the polling average, regardless of how large or small that lead is.

 



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