Election News

Final Tally of Electoral Map Forecasts

November 8, 2016

In our final look at the electoral projections, there remains quite a bit of variability in opinion across the experts we've been following. Aside from CNN, all have Clinton across 270 electoral votes, although most have her well short of that total when totaling the states that are the most secure (safe + likely ratings). Most of the forecasts have Clinton leading in states with either 274 or 322 electoral votes.  The main difference seems to be expectations for Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire: some have those lean Clinton, others still see them as toss-ups. 

You can review the forecasts, and associated maps on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

 

Aggregating the forecasts, and then placing them in categories, we end up with this consensus map.  Note that these aren't averages. For example, only states called 'safe' by 14 or 15 pundits are shown in the darkest color below.

 

In the final map here, we show all the toss-ups assigned to the candidate ahead when all the forecasts are aggregated. The pundits have a slight preference for Clinton to win all three of Florida, New Hampshire and North Carolina, with Trump seen as prevailing in Ohio. The closest to a coin flip is Maine's 2nd Congressional District; Trump will eke that out if the consensus is correct.



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Final Crystal Ball: Clinton Wins with 322 Electoral Votes; Tied Senate Gives Democrats Control

November 7, 2016

The final projection from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is a Clinton victory with 322 electoral votes vs. 216 for Donald Trump. This is an increase of 29 over their prior forecast - as Florida moved to lean Clinton from toss-up. At the same time, however, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire were moved to the lean category from likely. As a result, Clinton's favored total (safe + likely) has dropped below 270. Texas was returned to safe Republican.

 

The accompanying Senate forecast projects a 50-50 tie in that body. If the prediction for a Clinton presidency is correct, that would give Democrats control of the Senate in January. In the House, Democrats are projected to gain 13 seats, well short of the 30 the party would need to gain control.


Final NBC Battleground Map Projects Clinton at 274 Electoral Votes

November 7, 2016

The NBC Political Unit's final battleground map projects Hillary Clinton at 274 electoral votes, four more than the 270 required to be elected president. Their forecast is little changed from the prior week. Utah was moved from toss-up to lean Trump and Georgia from lean Trump back to toss-up. Recent polling supports these changes. McMullin's momentum seems to have slowed in Utah, while the latest Georgia poll conducted for NBC showed just a one-point Trump lead.


Poll Closing Times Updated for 2016

November 4, 2016

We've updated our poll closing times page for 2016. This is not meant to be a guide for when any specific polling place is open, but rather to indicate the expected latest closing times for each state. This is important in that it should be the earliest time that the AP and/or broadcast networks will announce the winner of that state's electoral votes.  Other statewide contests, such as Senator and governor, if applicable, should also hold to these timeframes.  We'll be updating an electoral map on Tuesday night. In addition, we'll have Congressional pages, that include a map and a table that will let you track who is going to control the House and Senate in the 115th Congress. Links to follow on these.

 


Electoral College Ratings as of November 3rd

November 3, 2016

Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has continued to decrease since our last review of electoral forecasts on October 31st. One theme in recent days is forecasters moving some states that had previously been considered toss-ups into the leaning Trump category. Most notable are Ohio and Iowa, states that voted twice for Barack Obama.

Hillary Clinton now averages 288 electoral votes, down about five from the 31st. Donald Trump is at 193, a gain of ten. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters. 


Electoral College Projections as of October 31st

October 31, 2016

Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has eroded somewhat since our last review of electoral forecasts on October 26th. Much of the change has been around forecasters moving states to toss-up that they had previously characterized as leaning toward Clinton.

Several forecasters followed this reclassification with Florida as it has tightened considerably in the polls. Trump has led in two of the last four polls there and only trailing by one in the other two. With its 29 electoral votes, the Sunshine State is pretty close to a must-win for the Republican nominee.

Hillary Clinton now averages 293 electoral votes, down 13 from last Wednesday. Donald Trump is at 183, a gain of four. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Weekend Polling Update

October 30, 2016

Poll releases are generally less frequent on the weekend. Not the case on this, the 2nd to final weekend before the 2016 presidential election. The graphic below shows what we've seen this Sunday morning as of about 9:45 Eastern Time. Click it for all the most recent polling (both president and Senate). Click a row to see all the polling for that state.

 

In terms of the polling electoral map, there has been little change in where states fall (toss-up, leaning etc.)  However, Trump has regained a very small lead in Arizona, moving it to red in our 'no-tossups' polling map (below). This map shows which candidate is ahead in the polling average, regardless of how large or small that lead is.

 


Latest Associated Press Electoral Map

October 29, 2016

In their electoral map update on October 28th, the Associated Press moved Iowa from leaning Trump to toss-up, with Nevada going from toss-up to leaning Clinton. Both states have 6 electoral votes, bringing Clinton's total to 278 (213 strong), Trump to 173 (106 strong). 

No corresponding analysis from AP is available yet (that we could locate), but the new AP ratings for Iowa and Nevada match those on the consensus pundit map. Click the below for an interactive version of the AP map.

 

It will likely be several days before we know if or how Friday's FBI October Surprise will change electoral map estimates for an election that is now just 10 days away.


Electoral College Projections as of October 26th

October 27, 2016

We gathered up the projections of 14 organizations again Wednesday. While several forecasts have been updated since our last look on October 21st, not much has changed overall. Hillary Clinton now averages 306 electoral votes, Donald Trump 179. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

It is worth noting that there is a significant difference between the forecasts that have not been updated in the past five days vs. those that have. The more recent forecasts put Clinton at 324 electoral votes (vs. 281 in the older projections). Trump's number is little changed, but we've seen about 20 of his electoral votes move out of the 'favored' category.  

Will the older forecasts 'catch up' when they are updated? Perhaps, but there has been some tightening in the state polls this week. Trump had a small lead in a Florida poll out yesterday and he has regained the lead in Ohio. New Hampshire has also trended closer. That's 51 competitive electoral votes in those three states. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Trump Leads in Two New Texas Polls

October 27, 2016

Donald Trump leads by 3 points in a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, while the lead is 7 in a poll released by Crosswind/American Statesman

While limited, polling in the Lone Star State has been pretty similar over the past several weeks, with most surveys showing a small, but consistent lead of about 3 points for Trump. This spread was seen again in today's U. Texas poll.

Trump now leads by 3.6% on average. While that spread keeps Texas a toss-up in the electoral map based on polls, the consistency of the polling - not to mention the state's voting history - would point to him having the advantage with just over 10 days to go until Election Day.



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