Election News

Electoral College Projections as of October 31st

October 31, 2016

Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has eroded somewhat since our last review of electoral forecasts on October 26th. Much of the change has been around forecasters moving states to toss-up that they had previously characterized as leaning toward Clinton.

Several forecasters followed this reclassification with Florida as it has tightened considerably in the polls. Trump has led in two of the last four polls there and only trailing by one in the other two. With its 29 electoral votes, the Sunshine State is pretty close to a must-win for the Republican nominee.

Hillary Clinton now averages 293 electoral votes, down 13 from last Wednesday. Donald Trump is at 183, a gain of four. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.



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Weekend Polling Update

October 30, 2016

Poll releases are generally less frequent on the weekend. Not the case on this, the 2nd to final weekend before the 2016 presidential election. The graphic below shows what we've seen this Sunday morning as of about 9:45 Eastern Time. Click it for all the most recent polling (both president and Senate). Click a row to see all the polling for that state.

 

In terms of the polling electoral map, there has been little change in where states fall (toss-up, leaning etc.)  However, Trump has regained a very small lead in Arizona, moving it to red in our 'no-tossups' polling map (below). This map shows which candidate is ahead in the polling average, regardless of how large or small that lead is.

 


Latest Associated Press Electoral Map

October 29, 2016

In their electoral map update on October 28th, the Associated Press moved Iowa from leaning Trump to toss-up, with Nevada going from toss-up to leaning Clinton. Both states have 6 electoral votes, bringing Clinton's total to 278 (213 strong), Trump to 173 (106 strong). 

No corresponding analysis from AP is available yet (that we could locate), but the new AP ratings for Iowa and Nevada match those on the consensus pundit map. Click the below for an interactive version of the AP map.

 

It will likely be several days before we know if or how Friday's FBI October Surprise will change electoral map estimates for an election that is now just 10 days away.


Electoral College Projections as of October 26th

October 27, 2016

We gathered up the projections of 14 organizations again Wednesday. While several forecasts have been updated since our last look on October 21st, not much has changed overall. Hillary Clinton now averages 306 electoral votes, Donald Trump 179. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

It is worth noting that there is a significant difference between the forecasts that have not been updated in the past five days vs. those that have. The more recent forecasts put Clinton at 324 electoral votes (vs. 281 in the older projections). Trump's number is little changed, but we've seen about 20 of his electoral votes move out of the 'favored' category.  

Will the older forecasts 'catch up' when they are updated? Perhaps, but there has been some tightening in the state polls this week. Trump had a small lead in a Florida poll out yesterday and he has regained the lead in Ohio. New Hampshire has also trended closer. That's 51 competitive electoral votes in those three states. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Trump Leads in Two New Texas Polls

October 27, 2016

Donald Trump leads by 3 points in a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, while the lead is 7 in a poll released by Crosswind/American Statesman

While limited, polling in the Lone Star State has been pretty similar over the past several weeks, with most surveys showing a small, but consistent lead of about 3 points for Trump. This spread was seen again in today's U. Texas poll.

Trump now leads by 3.6% on average. While that spread keeps Texas a toss-up in the electoral map based on polls, the consistency of the polling - not to mention the state's voting history - would point to him having the advantage with just over 10 days to go until Election Day.


State of the Race in 3 Maps

October 26, 2016

These are three of the more popular maps on 270toWin; here they are as of October 26th.

Click or tap any of the maps for more detail and an interactive version. 

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Consensus Pundit Map: This is the composite Election Day forecast of 15 organizations. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least 13 pundits are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.  

 

 
 
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Polling Map: The electoral map based purely on polling. More of an 'if the election were held today' look at things. For this map, states where the average margin is 5 points or less are shown as toss-up, while those where it is greater than 10 points are shown as safe.
 

 
 
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Polling Map, No-Tossups: This is who leads the polls in each state, regardless of how small that lead is.
 
 
 

Electoral College Projections as of October 21st

October 21, 2016

Several forecasters have updated their electoral college projections since our last review just two days ago. Those are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

Hillary Clinton's average lead has increased by 12 since Wednesday, with Clinton up four to 304, while Donald Trump dropped 8 to 179. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Electoral College Projections as of October 19th

October 19, 2016

As we head into the final presidential debate, and with just under three weeks to go until the 2016 presidential election, here's the state of the race from the viewpoint of 14 forecasters. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

Since our last update on October 13th, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's average total electoral votes are little changed. Clinton is at 300, Trump 187. Within Trump's average, however, we are beginning to see an erosion in states where the Republican nominee is favored vs. those that are leaning in his direction. For example, a couple forecasters have moved Texas from favored to leaning. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Clinton Leads by 8 Nationally After Two New Polls

October 16, 2016

Hillary Clinton is averaging an 8 point lead nationally over Donald Trump after the release of two new polls Sunday morning. An ABC News / Washington Post poll showed Clinton with a 4 point lead, while an NBC News / WSJ poll showed her with a 10 point advantage (11 when including third parties).

While these two polls offered significantly different results, and will likely be individually cited by partisans of the respective candidates, the average of the two is very close to the overall average of all recent national polls. This again highlights why it is better to look at the average of multiple polls vs. any single one.


Lone Star State in Play? Trump Leads by Just 4 in New Poll

October 14, 2016

SurveyUSA finds a fairly close race in Texas, with Donald Trump having a four point edge on Hillary Clinton. From the pollster: "No Republican has carried Texas by fewer than 13 points since Bob Dole defeated Bill Clinton by 5 points 20 years ago, when Texan Ross Perot siphoned 7% of the vote. Today, Trump leads by 33 points among white Texans, but Clinton leads by 64 points among African Americans and by 23 points among Latinos."

 

Trump still leads by about 6 points in the state polling average, and he has led every poll (aside from a tied online survey) conducted this year. While the state will almost certainly yield a closer result in 2016 than in recent elections, Trump should prevail here barring a Clinton landslide. Texas last voted Democratic for Jimmy Carter in 1976.

The state still rates as leaning Trump in the electoral map based on polls.



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