Election News

Trump Leads 55-27, As Expected, After First 10 States Vote

December 19, 2016

Arkansas' 6 electors have voted for Donald Trump.

Mississippi's 6 electors have voted for Donald Trump 

Oklahoma's 7 electors have voted for Donald Trump.

Illinois' 20 electors have voted for Hillary Clinton

South Carolina's 9 electors have voted for Donald Trump

Thus far, all electors have voted as pledged. Noon hour sees about a dozen more states, including GA, PA, OH and NC. 

 



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Tennessee, New Hampshire, Vermont Vote as Expected; Trump Leads 27-7 After Five States

December 19, 2016

Tennessee's 11 electors have voted for Donald Trump.

New Hampshire's 4 electors have voted for Hillary Clinton.

Vermont's 3 electors have voted for Hillary Clinton.

That completes the 10AM states

 


Indiana and West Virginia Electors Vote for Trump

December 19, 2016

From WISH-TV's Nick Natario, Indiana's 11 electors have voted for Donald Trump.

Likewise, West Virginia's 5 electors have voted for Trump.

See the updated map.


Electors Meet Monday: Updated Schedule, Results Map

December 16, 2016

Here's the updated schedule of what time (EST) the Electors of each state will convene on Monday, December 19th. During these meetings, in accordance with individual state rules, the Electors will cast their votes for president and vice-president. The meetings are usually held in a state's capital city. 

 

The table now include the electoral votes for each state, colored red (Trump) or blue (Clinton) to reflect the popular vote winner. Italicized are those states that have laws that attempt to bind electors to vote as pledged. Interestingly, the total electoral votes in states with those laws is 151 for both Trump and Clinton. 

Results Map

 

 

 

 

 

Our plan is to update this map as results become available. 

 

 


What Time do the Electors Meet on December 19th?

December 13, 2016

For those interested, we've compiled a schedule of what time (EST) the Electors of each state will convene on Monday, December 19th. During this meeting, in accordance with individual state rules, the Electors will cast their actual votes for president and vice-president. 

Most of this information was compiled from the National Association of Secretaries of State. Where a state's code does not specify a meeting time, we've looked for press releases or media accounts. A few states remain TBA; we'll try and update in the days ahead.

The meetings are usually held in a state's capital city. 


GOP Wins Louisiana Senate Seat in Runoff; Party has 52-48 Margin in 115th Congress

December 11, 2016

As expected, Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy won the Louisiana Senate runoff Saturday, defeating Democrat Foster Campbell by over 20 points.

 

Democrats gained two seats in the 2016 elections, but the party was unable to wrest control of the body from the Republicans. It was a missed opportunity for 'Team Blue', as 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016 were held by Republicans. The situation is reversed in 2018, with 25 of the 33 races that year held by the Democrats. Playing that much defense, it will be very difficult for the party to make gains.

The new Senate will be comprised of 52 Republicans, 48 Democrats. Republicans have both seats in 20 states, Democrats in 18 states. There is a split in 12 states. Mike Pence will become president of the Senate on January 20th, giving Republicans the advantage in any tie votes.

 

There will be 7 new Senators sworn in this January:

California:  Kamala Harris (D) won seat held by retiring Barbara Boxer (D)

Illinois:      Tammy Duckworth (D) defeated incumbent Mark Kirk (R)  Dem. Gain

Indiana:     Todd Young (R) won seat held by retiring Dan Coats (R)

Louisiana:  John Kennedy (R) won seat held by retiring David Vitter (R)

Maryland:  Chris Van Hollen (D) won seat held by retiring Barbara Mikulski (D)

Nevada:    Catherine Cortez Masto (D) won seat held by retiring Harry Reid (D) 

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R)  Dem. Gain

One final note: Donald Trump has nominated Jeff Sessions (R) of Alabama to be Attorney General, with North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp (D) a lead contender for Secretary of Agriculture. If confirmed, those Senators would be replaced. Heitkamp would bring a Democratic voice into the Trump administration, but her replacement would likely be a Republican, adding one to the GOP majority. 


A Map for Those That Want to Track Possible Faithless Electors

December 5, 2016

The 538 electors will cast their votes for president on Monday, December 19th. We've had some requests for an interactive map that lets people game out the possibility of one or more 'faithless' electors in that vote. To that end, we've modified our historical interactive map code to create a preliminary 2016 version. This map lets you split any state, thus allowing for the introduction of faithless electors in one or more states. 

 

A faithless elector is one who casts their vote contrary to the candidate for whom they have pledged to vote, or one who abstains from voting. For example, Trump won Texas and thus the Republican slate of 38 electors will vote on December 19th. If one of those voted for someone other than Trump - which now seems likely - they would be considered a faithless elector. Likewise, a Washington state elector has previously indicated that he cannot support Hillary Clinton.

There have been very few faithless presidential electors, fewer than 10 since 1900 and none since 2004. (There were some additional faithless VP electors in 1912). In modern times, most electors are party loyalists, with little incentive to 'go rogue'.

Despite the long-shot odds, there is a campaign to flip 37 or more Republican electors away from Donald Trump, which would bring him below the 270 needed to win and send the election to the House of Representatives. This effort is being spearheaded mainly by a group of Democratic electors, who would support the effort by voting for a Republican alternative to Trump, thus being faithless to Hillary Clinton in the process. Those leading this process are attempting to agree on a person who, with 37+ Republican electoral votes plus some number of Democratic electoral votes, would be positioned as an acceptable alternative for consideration by the Republican-controlled House.


Pat McCrory Concedes Governor's Race in North Carolina

December 5, 2016

After weeks of uncertainty, North Carolina governor Pat McCrory has conceded the race to his Democratic opponent Roy Cooper. This was the last of the 12 gubernatorial races to be decided, and the only Democratic pick-up. Republicans swung 3 state houses, taking Missouri, New Hampshire and Vermont. 

This leaves Republicans with control of 33 state houses, to 16 for Democrats. Alaska's governor is an independent. According to Wikipedia, the last time Republicans controlled this many governorships was 1922.

 

Only two governorships are up in 2017. Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia are both term-limited, thus unable to run again.


Finalizing the Congress: Louisiana Runoffs this Saturday

December 5, 2016

Unique among the 50 states, Louisiana's Election Day for Congressional races consists of a non-partisan primary (sometimes called a 'jungle primary'), where all candidates, from all parties, appear on the ballot. Unless one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two vote getters advance to a runoff. 

One Senate and two House seats will be contested in this year's Louisiana runoff, set for this Saturday, December 10th. All three seats are expected to remain in Republican hands.

While these races will 'complete' the faces of the new Congress, some of President-elect Donald Trump's nominations may result in open seats in 2017.

U.S. Senate:  Republican state treasurer John Kennedy faces off against Foster Campbell, a member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission. The latest polling has Kennedy ahead by double-digits. A win by Kennedy will give Republicans 52 seats in the new Senate, with Democrats gaining two seats overall in the 2016 election.

U.S. House: Districts 3 and 4 are moving to a runoff. Both seats are currently held by Republican incumbents that retired to make (unsuccessful) bids to win the above-referenced Senate seat. In the 3rd District, both participants in the runoff this Saturday are Republican, guaranteeing a party hold of that seat. While a Democratic vs. Republican runoff exists in the 4th District, the race is rated 'Safe Republican' by most pundits. Republican wins in these two races will give them 241 seats in the new Congress, down six from today's 247. 

Impact of Trump Nominations on Congress: Several of Donald Trump's cabinet and other picks currently serve as Republican members of Congress. If confirmed, these seats would open up, to be filled by appointment and/or special election (laws vary by state, we haven't looked into the specfics). These include Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama (nominated for Attorney General), Rep. Tom Price of Georgia (Health & Human Services), Rep. Mike Pompeo of Kansas (CIA). Other current Members appear to be in contention for positions where Mr. Trump has not made a selection as of yet.


Trump Wins Michigan

November 28, 2016

Donald Trump was formally declared the winner of Michigan by that state's Board of Canvassers Monday afternoon. This action allows us to complete the 2016 electoral map, pending the actual vote of each state's Electors on December 19th.

The 10,704 vote win, out of 4.8 million votes cast, marks the closest presidential race in the state in more than 75 years*.

Click the map for an interactive version.

As we noted the other day, but will repeat here, the win in Michigan gives Trump 306 electoral votes, marking a 100 vote swing from Mitt Romney in 2012: 

Trump flipped six states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, each of which last voted Republican in the 1980s. He also won Florida, Ohio and Iowa, each of which voted twice for President Obama. Trump also won an electoral vote in Maine, the first time that state has split its vote.  
 
* Earlier reports said this was Michigan's closest race ever, but the latest information indicates 75 years.  In either case, it was the closest race, in percentage terms, of any state in the 2016 presidential election.


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