April 16, 2015
A new poll from Marquette Law School shows Hillary Clinton well in front of five prospective Republican 2016 opponents, including a 12% lead over that state's governor, Scott Walker.
Republican Primary: Governor Walker is dominant here, preferred by 40% of Republicans (and those leaning Republican) polled. Rand Paul was second with 10% and Jeb Bush third with 8%
Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton received 58% of the Democratic (and leaning Democratic) vote, with Elizabeth Warren at 14% and Joe Biden at 12%.
General Election: Clinton's lead ranges from 8% over Rand Paul to 16% over Ted Cruz. Her lead is 11% over Jeb Bush and 12% over Marco Rubio and Walker. Interestingly, Walker received exactly 40% support in both the primary and general election surveys. The initial NBC 2016 Electoral Map* (from late 2014) shows Wisconsin as a possible battleground state, although this poll and one taken last month don't support that idea. Wisconsin last voted Republican in the 1984 Reagan landslide; Obama won the state by 7% in 2012.
*For those of you visiting from a mobile device, you will now be able to see and use 270toWin interactive maps. We have launched a map that doesn't use Flash for those visiting from smartphones and tablets.
April 14, 2015
Those of you visiting 270toWin from a tablet or smartphone will now be able to create an interactive electoral map and view the maps and forecasts created by others. This will probably be a bit more useful than the mostly blank screen previously 'visible' on devices unable to display Flash objects in the browser.
Home Page: On a mobile device, you'll see the new map, initially set to the results of the 2012 election. Tap states to create your own forecast. If cookies are enabled, your map should be as you left it when you return to 270toWin
Shared Forecasts: You can view maps created on the Flash version and shared by others. These will be displayed using the new map. For example, the NBC Battleground 2016 map.
Polling Maps: We've created a series of electoral maps that show how different Republicans are performing against Hillary Clinton, purely based on early polling. These will now be visible on your device.
In the weeks ahead, we'll be upgrading the new map, adding many of the other features of the Flash map.
If you have any feedback or run into any issues, please add a comment to let us know.
April 13, 2015
Florida Senator Marco Rubio became the third Republican Senator to join the 2016 presidential race on Monday, joining Kentucky's Rand Paul and Ted Cruz of Texas. Rubio held a call with donors Monday morning to let them know he was running. A public announcement will come this evening at downtown Miami's Freedom Tower.
Rubio has averaged about 7% in recent Republican preference polling putting him in the middle of the pack, trailing his political mentor Jeb Bush who is polling in the mid-teens in a crowded field of prospective nominees. Bush has not yet declared his candidacy for 2016.
There hasn't been a great deal of early polling for a general election match-up between Rubio and Hillary Clinton; that link will let you track the race and also links to an interactive map that looks at polling + 2012 results in unpolled states.
April 12, 2015
Hillary Clinton will announce her entry into the 2016 presidential race today, Sunday April 12, the New York Times reports. Clinton is expected to begin her campaign with a video message on social media, followed by visits to early primary states in the days ahead.
Clinton has dominated the Democratic field in early polling for the 2016 nomination, usually earning over 60% support and leading her prospective rivals by an average of almost 50% in the last 5 national polls, 270toWin has calculated.
While Clinton enters the 2016 race as a prohibitive favorite, it is worth noting that she was the presumed front-runner at this same time in 2007, polling about 35-40%, about 10% ahead of a not-yet-well-known Senator from Illinois. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani was seeing twice as much support as John McCain.
Looking ahead to November, 2016, there has been some polling on Clinton vs. a number of prospective Republican nominees. We're tracking those with a series of electoral maps*.
*We are creating a non-Flash version of our interactive electoral maps to provide a much better experience for the growing percentage of 270toWin visitors viewing the site from a mobile device. You should start seeing this map in the next few weeks.
April 7, 2015
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul will announce his candidacy for the 2016 Republican nomination today in Louisville. The first-term Senator will join Ted Cruz as official candidates for the presidiency. There are approximately 580 days until the 2016 presidential election.
It is expected that numerous other Republicans will follow in the weeks ahead.
Paul and Cruz have both been averaging about 10% in Republican primary polls, trailing but competitive with early polling frontrunners Scott Walker and Jeb Bush. Looking to the general election, should it be Paul vs. Hillary Clinton, early polling has Clinton with the advantage. However, when considering polled states + 2012 results for unpolled ones, this is the only match-up that doesn't currently show Clinton ahead in states totaling 270 electoral votes.
April 2, 2015
An April 2 Quinnipiac poll for the general election battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania show that the Republican nomination remains wide open. Preference for home-state political figures (or perhaps it is just name recongition) was a significant influence in the results. For example, former Governor Jeb Bush sees almost 25% preference in Florida, but can't crack double-digits in the other two states.
Florida: Former governor Jeb Bush leads with 24% of the vote with Senator Marco Rubio in 3rd at 12%. Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is in-between, with 15%. These results are similar to those seen in last week's Public Policy poll. Rubio is scheduled to announce his 2016 plans on April 13.
Ohio: Senator John Kasich garnered 20% of the vote; the only candidate to crack double-digits. Kasich has gotten little support in other polling, but his popularity in this critical general election battleground could become important. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio.
Pennsylvania: Walker was the only prospective candidate with double-digit support here, and the only one to finish in the top three in all three states polled. Former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second at 9%. Santorum has gotten little support elsewhere.
Quinnipiac also polled the Democratic field in these three states. Hillary Clinton's support ranged from 48% in Pennsylvania, to 54% in Ohio, to 65% in Florida. While Clinton is clearly ahead, this wide variation in support for the presumptive (if she runs) nominee might be something to monitor.
March 31, 2015
A March 31 Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll shows Hillary Clinton's lead shrinking (even disappearing in a couple cases) in 2016 match-ups against prospective Republican nominees. Polls were conducted in the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
A few highlights
- Jeb Bush leads Clinton by 45% to 42% in Florida. While within the margin of error, this is one of the stronger Republican showings vs. Clinton seen in 2016 competitive state polling thus far
- Rand Paul leads Clinton by 45% to 44% in Pennsylvania
- Scott Walker's recent strong performance in Republican primary polling is not yet carrying over to the general electorate. Walker trails Clinton by 5% to 11% across the three states
- Clinton is polling strongest overall in Ohio, leading by an average of 8.6% (vs. 4% to 5% in the other two states). A Republican has never won the presidency without carrying Ohio.
We've made a few updates to our polling-based HRC vs. GOP electoral maps.
March 25, 2015
A new poll from Public Policy shows Hillary Clinton with leads of varying sizes over prospective 2016 opponents while Jeb Bush leads the crowded Republican primary field.
Republican Primary: Former governor Jeb Bush leads with 25% of the vote with home state Senator Marco Rubio in 3rd at 15%. Scott Walker is in-between, with 17%. This is one of the stronger poll showings we've seen from Rubio thus far.
Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton received 58% of those responding, with Joe Biden at 14% and Elizabeth Warren at 10%. The email issue doesn't seem to be affecting Clinton much in her own party.
General Election: Clinton leads all Republicans in head-head match-ups, with Florida's Rubio and Bush coming closest, within the margin of error. Walker, who is performing well in Republican primary field surveys is not seeing that carry over yet; he trails by 8%. Democrats have won states totaling 242 electoral votes in the last 6 consecutive presidential elections. If that 'blue wall' should persist in 2016, Florida is a must-win state for the Republicans as its 29 electoral votes would put the Democratic nominee over the 270 threshold.
image from 270toWin iPad App
March 24, 2015
Republican Indiana Senator Dan Coats announced today that he is not running for reelection in 2016. Coats won the seat in 2010 after former Senator Evan Bayh retired. This was Coats' 2nd Senate stint. He was appointed to the Senate in 1989 to succeed Dan Quayle, who had resigned to become Vice President under George H.W. Bush.
Prior to this announcement, the seat was favored to remain in Republican hands. It may become more competitive now and could be an additional hurdle to Republican retention of the Senate in 2016, as the party must defend 24 of the 34 seats up next year.
March 24, 2015
Version 1.5 of the 270toWin iPad app is now available in the App Store. In this update:
- My Maps: Added more user options for map interaction including a color rotation similar to that on the 270toWin website
- The States: Electoral vote count now changes as user scrolls through history. Also added electoral votes for 2020 (same as today) and an early projection for 2024
- The Library: A 2016 Projections directory is now available. It will be populated with pundit and other projections
For those that haven't looked at the app since the last election, here are some changes from the prior update, version 1.4, that launched last year:
- Technical: App rebuilt for iOS 7 including updated Retina graphics
- My Maps: Create candidate-specific 2016 match-ups; save maps to camera roll via Share button
- The States: Updated narrative, voting history and popular votes for 2012 election results
- The Library: Added 2012 Related directory for maps based on 2012 results
- The History: Added 2012 to the timeline