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Election News

First GOP Debate Looms; Dubious Criteria Used for Inclusion

July 27, 2015

The first Republican debate is scheduled for August 6 in Cleveland. Host Fox News is limiting the field to those ten Republicans placing highest in an average of five nationally-recognized polls. While we don't know which polls Fox will use, Ohio governor John Kasich has displaced former Texas governor Rick Perry for the final spot based on the 270toWin five-poll average. Businessman Donald Trump has won all five of these polls.

The ten-candidate cutoff has received a lot of criticism, and rightly so. Assuming a poll of 500 people, the difference between Chris Christie in 9th place averaging 3.2% and Bobby Jindal in 14th place at 1.2% is just 10 people. That is before factoring in the statistical errors inherent in polling: Some of these polls have sample sizes small enough that almost everyone outside the top 3 is within the margin of error. Yet another issue is that the polling is national, while the choice of a nominee will be done via the primary and caucus system at the state level. Some of those not expected to make the cut are polling well in one or more states, based on their regional strength.

In sum, Fox is choosing ten debate participants based on insignificant differences in polls for an election that doesn't exist.

 


Clinton Lagging in Three Swing States, Poll Finds

July 22, 2015

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is trailing in several 2016 match-ups against leading Republicans, a new Quinnipiac poll finds. The firm surveyed, Clinton against Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker in the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia.

Clinton trails all three Republicans in Colorado and Iowa, while Virginia results are within the margin of error. 

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden also trail this same set of Republicans. However, Sanders is actually outperforming Clinton in some cases, the first time we have seen that.

Results of the Quinnipiac poll are below. Check our polling page for all the 2016 presidential polls.

 


John Kasich Joins Republican 2016 Field

July 21, 2015

Ohio governor John Kasich, who easily won re-election to a 2nd term in 2014, today becomes the 16th -- and perhaps final -- major Republican candidate in the 2016 race, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Currently polling outside the top 10 to qualify for the initial GOP debate in August, Kasich may be hoping that a post-announcement bump in upcoming polls will be enough to help him make the cut. (In related news, Fox has made some changes to the forum where those not making the top 10 will be relegated).

No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. Should Kasich not be the nominee, his popularity at home could make him an attractive VP choice for the 2016 ticket.

Half the Republican field is or has been a governor. Kasich joins Jeb Bush (Florida), Chris Christie (New Jersey), Mike Huckabee (Arkansas), Bobby Jindal (Louisiana), George Pataki (New York), Rick Perry (Texas), and Scott Walker (Wisconsin). Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore may also join the race in August.


Republican Primary Polling by State

July 15, 2015

Most recent national Republican polling has shown Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Donald Trump leading the crowded field. However, much like the general election next November, the nomination will be decided more locally, with primary or caucus battles in most states.

That in mind, it is worth keeping an eye on who is leading the Republican polls in each state. The table below shows the current leaders in the four early states, those scheduled to have their primary or caucus events in February. The link above will take you to a page showing who is leading in each state where polling has been conducted, with links to details about the polls and primary/caucus in each state.


Republican Field Update: Candidates, Maps, Polls, Debates

July 8, 2015

There are 14 formally declared Republican candidates for 2016. Scott Walker and John Kasich are expected to join the field later this month, with former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore saying earlier this week that he will run for president, with a formal announcement early in August.

None of the 17 announced or prospective candidates has broken out; polling remains quite competitive, with many of the so-called long shots leading in one or more states. The dates in the table below reflect the likely date for the 2016 Republican primary or caucus in that state. Those states not shown have not been polled.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Names in bold are in the top 10 of the 270toWin polling average. Fox and CNN, hosts of the first two debates, have announced that qualification will be based on top 10 standings in the polls, based on the respective networks' calculations prior to the debate. CNN will include a separate forum for those that don't make the top 10.

Announced

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Chris Christie June 30 Governor, New Jersey MAP 
Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  
John Kasich July 21 Governor, Ohio  
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

Launch Pending

John Kasich July 21 Governor, Ohio  
Scott Walker July 13  Governor, Wisconsin MAP  
Jim Gilmore Early Aug. Former Governor, Virginia  

 


2016 Primary and Caucus Calendar Update

July 6, 2015

The 2016 presidential election calendar is starting to take shape. The upcoming 'season' will be much shorter than in 2012. No events will occur in January, and both parties will have a nominee by the end of July. In 2012, the Iowa caucuses took place in early January, and the conventions took place in late August and early September.

Republican rules for 2016 prohibit primaries and caucuses in January, with only 4 states allowed to hold February contests. March events that take place prior to the 15th must award delegates proportionately, while those thereafter can allocate as they see fit, although many are expected to use a winner-take-all approach. The net effect is that going early provides a state more visibility, but if the field remains crowded, it may be the states that wait that have the greatest impact in deciding the 2016 nominee.

Democratic rules require proportional allocation of delegates. In a less-competitive nominating race, as 2016 appears to be, this provides some delegate visibility for secondary candidates. 

A few highlights on the calendar follow. Some of these dates are subject to change. A number of debates are scheduled prior to the first contests. 

February: Iowans will caucus on February 1, followed by the New Hampshire primary on the 9th. A Nevada source has told us that their caucuses will be on the 20th, with the South Carolina primary on the 27th, although we have seen some other dates mentioned. 

Early March: A southern regional primary is taking shape for March 1 with participating states expected to include Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. North Carolina may also join in, although they are a bit more tentative at this point. This structure may benefit more conservative hopefuls like Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee, while Texas could be critical to Senator Ted Cruz. About 10 other states will also hold contests during the first two weeks of the month.

March 15: The first date where winner-take-all delegate allocation will be allowed on the Republican side is expected to see contests in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. Depending on how the early states shake out, Florida may prove pivotal to the future aspirations of home-state candidates Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. The prospects of Ohio governor John Kasich (expected to join the race July 21), may hinge on whether he can keep his campaign going through the generally more conservative earlier states.

Follow the Republican and Democratic primaries on 270toWin. Current info includes national polls, with links to state-specific polling where it is available. As more information becomes available, we'll add a full calendar with delegate information and, as the events take place, results.

The 2016 presidential election will take place on November 8, 2016.

 


Walker Continues to Lead Iowa Caucus Polling

July 1, 2015

Scott Walker, governor of neighboring Wisconsin, continues to lead in polling for the 2016 Iowa Republican Caucus. The latest poll, out today from Quinnipiac gives Mr. Walker 18%, ahead of Ben Carson and Donald Trump with 10%. Another 13 prospective nominees polled split the remaining 60% or so.

Interestingly, while Mr. Walker leads, he is one of only two Republicans polled that has not yet officially joined the race. Both he and Ohio Governor John Kasich are expected to declare their intentions to run later in July. 

Businessman Donald Trump continues to see a sizeable bump from his mid-June campaign launch, tying for 2nd in the Iowa poll. He has placed in the top 3 in recent polls from MichiganKentucky and New Hampshire, as well as nationally. If this trend continues, it may be one of the more interesting stories as we head toward the first Republican debate in August.


As June Ends, Chris Christie Joins 2016 Republican Field

June 29, 2015

New Jersey governor Chris Christie will join a crowded 2016 Republican field as he announces his candidacy for president tomorrow in Livingston, NJ. His campaign website is already live

Christie will be the 14th Republican to formally announce. He is averaging about 4% in the 270toWin polling average, well back of the leaders, but within the top 10 that would qualify for the first Republican debate in August.

Ohio governor John Kasich is expected to join the field on July 21. No formal date has been announced for Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, but a July 13 date has been rumored. Once these two join the campaign, the field of major Republican contenders may be set at 16.. That number will likely decrease quickly after the first primaries and caucuses next winter.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Names in bold are in the top 10 of the 270toWin polling average. (Fox and CNN, hosts of the first two debates, have announced that qualification will be based on top 10 standings in the polls, based on the respective networks' calculations prior to the debate. CNN will include a separate forum for those that don't make the top 10.

Announced

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Chris Christie June 30 Governor, New Jersey MAP 
Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  
John Kasich July 21 Governor, Ohio  
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

Pending Decision (Almost definitely running)

Scott Walker July 13 (tentative) Governor, Wisconsin MAP  

No Announcement Date Set 

Other possible (although unlikely) entrants include former Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, and Rep. Peter King of New York.   


Bobby Jindal to Join 2016 Race; Christie May be Next

June 24, 2015

Despite polling under 1%, Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal will become the 13th Republican to officially launch a 2016 campaign for the party's presidential nomination. The announcement will take place late this afternoon at the Pontchartrain Center in Kenner.

Chris Christie may announce his candidacy as early as next week. The New Jersey governor has been polling about 5%, currently good enough to include him in the top 10 for the first debate in August, but well off the mid-teens support seen by Jeb Bush and Scott Walker.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Names in bold are in the top 10 of the 270toWin polling average

Announced

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

Pending Decision (All likely to run)

Chris Christie Early July Governor, New Jersey  MAP 
John Kasich Early July Governor, Ohio  
Scott Walker July 13 (tentative) Governor, Wisconsin MAP

No Announcement Date Set 

Other possible (although unlikely) entrants include former Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, and Rep. Peter King of New York.   


With a Caveat, Bush Leads Republican Field in Latest Poll

June 22, 2015

Jeb Bush receives 22% support, more than any of the 15 other Republicans included in the latest NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll. Scott Walker received 17% and Marco Rubio 14%, while Ben Carson saw 11%. Other candidates receiving 5% or more included Mike Huckabee (9%), Rand Paul (7%) and Rick Perry (5%). 

However: This is the first time Bush has exceeded 20% since early May when the last NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll gave him a similar 23%. In 9 intervening polls, conducted by a variety of organizations, Bush did not receive more than 15%. It is also worth noting that both of these polls have a very small sample size of about 250 Republicans, yielding a margin of error greater +/- 6%.

Who is right - NBC/WSJ or everyone else? We'll never really know since nobody is actually voting until early 2016 (and there is no national primary). 270toWin has a page that includes an average of the most recent Republican primary polls, and this shows Bush in a virtual tie with Walker, with Carson & Rubio tied for 3rd.


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