Election News

Former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas ended his presidential campaign Monday, throwing support behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced Monday that he will run as an independent candidate for president in 2024. The environmental lawyer and vaccine skeptic will abandon his long-shot challenge for the Democratic nomination.

Join Me For A Historic Announcement https://t.co/O8a3TDaPus

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) October 9, 2023

Kennedy had been averaging just under 14% support in recent national Democratic polls. It is unclear how much of that reflected actual interest in his candidacy among Democratic primary voters vs. a lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden.

Other polls have shown him even more popular with Republicans. We should start seeing more general election polling of a Biden-Trump-Kennedy ballot in the weeks ahead, providing  a better gauge of Kennedy's current overall support.

And there may be other challenges to the major party frontrunners. Last week, progressive academic Cornel West also said he would run as an independent, after previously seeking the Green Party's nomination. The group No Labels has also raised millions, and has gained ballot access in at least 10 states, to possibly run a candidate next year.  

Residents of Memphis, Tennessee will elect a new mayor on Thursday.  Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Mayoral Election 

Memphis

*_{Population rank is based on the July 1, 2022 Census Bureau estimates. It is based on the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.}

Democratic Mayor Jim Strickland is ineligible to run for a third term.  There are 17 candidates running to replace him in what is officially a nonpartisan election.

Thursday's first place finisher will be elected, despite the fact that they are likely to have nowhere near majority support. As Bolts magazine reports, "Memphis is by far the most populous city in the nation to elect its mayor this way, in a one-round, first-past-the-post election. There is no primary, no runoff, no ranked-choice voting to cull the herd, encourage consolidation, or help clarify the stakes. All other U.S. cities with at least half a million residents have some such mechanism to ensure that the field narrows, or that the winner gets broader support."

According to NCSL, 19 states plus the District of Columbia permit the recall of state legislators. Their research shows that there have been 39 such actual recall elections in U.S. History, with the recall successful about 55% of the time. The last such recall election was in 2018, when California State Sen. Josh Newman (D) was removed from office.^{1 1}Newman successfully won the seat back in the 2020 election. He has since advocated for a constitutional amendment to modify the recall process in that state.

Tuesday will bring the 40th such recall election. It will be the 4th to take place in Oregon. The most recent there was in 1988.

Oregon State House District 8

Wasting little time given the narrow Democratic majority, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has appointed Laphonza Butler as the state's newest U.S. Senator. She will succeed Dianne Feinstein, who died late last week.

I'm proud to announce California's new United States Senator -- Laphonza Butler.

As we mourn the enormous loss of Sen. Feinstein, the very freedoms she fought for -- reproductive freedom, equal protection, and safety from gun violence -- have never been under greater assault.… pic.twitter.com/SOnbfVPmXj

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) October 2, 2023

Butler is the president of EMILY's List, which works to elect Democratic pro-choice women to office. Prior to that, she was an advisor to Kamala Harris's 2020 presidential campaign.

2024 California Senate Elections

Feinstein had served in the Senate since 1992. Earlier this year, she announced she would not seek reelection in 2024. This set in motion what is likely to be the most expensive congressional race in 2024, despite the seat being safely Democratic.

This Tuesday, there are special primaries in two State House districts in Alabama. Republicans dominate that chamber, holding 75 seats, to just 27 for Democrats. There are three vacancies. Members serve four-year terms; the next regular elections are in 2026.

In these primaries, if no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will meet in an October 24 runoff. The special general elections are scheduled for January 9, 2024.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Rep. Andy Kim (NJ-03) said Saturday that he is running for the New Jersey U.S. Senate seat currently held by fellow Democrat, Sen. Bob Menendez. He becomes the first notable challenger to the long-time Senator, who was indicted Friday for conspiracy to commit bribery and two other related charges.

Menendez has served in the Senate since early 2006, appointed to the role by the prior officeholder, Jon Corzine (D). Corzine had resigned after being elected governor in November, 2005. Menendez was elected to his first full term in November of that year. He has since been reelected twice more.

In addition to multiple terms in the Senate, Menendez now has the distinction of being indicted more than once. That prior indictment, in 2015, ended in a mistrial in 2017. 

There are four state legislative districts with special elections or primaries Tuesday. The most high-profile race is in Pennsylvania, where the State House is evenly split. A Republican win is unlikely, but should it come to pass the party will take control of the chamber. 

New Hampshire State House (2 elections)

With 400 members at full strength, the New Hampshire House of Representatives is the largest legislative body in the United States. The narrowly-divided chamber currently has 199 Republicans, 196 Democrats. Members serve two year terms; the next regular elections are in 2024.

Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton of Virginia said Monday that she won't seek a fourth term in 2024. She had been diagnosed with Parkinson's earlier this year, and is now facing a more severe version of the disease.

An update on my health and my plans for serving #VA10 in Congress. pic.twitter.com/815hxhtRBv

— Rep. Jennifer Wexton (@RepWexton) September 18, 2023

Wexton represents Virginia's 10th congressional district, located in the northern part of the state. It includes parts of suburban Washington D.C., and extends into some less-populated areas.

She was first elected in 2018, ousting incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock. Her winning margin in 2018 and 2020 was in the low teens. In 2022, she won her third term by about 6.5% over Republican Hung Cao. The district had been made slightly more competitive in redistricting following the 2020 Census.

On Thursday we're following two elections in Tennessee. Voters in Nashville will elect their next mayor in a runoff, while a special election is held in a State House district that includes parts of that city.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

State Legislative Special Election

Tennessee State House District 51

Republicans hold a dominant 75-24 margin over Democrats in the Tennessee House of Representatives. There are no vacancies, as open seats are generally filled on an interim basis until a special election can be held. 

That is the case with the Nashville-area District 51. Democrat Anthony Davis was appointed by the Metro Council after the death of Bill Beck (D).