Election News

District of Columbia Republicans are holding a three-day presidential primary. The event began Friday, and will wrap up at 7:00 PM Eastern Time Sunday. The party will release results at some point after that.

Only registered Republicans are eligible to participate. Those are few and far between here, comprising about 5% of the City's electorate. However, the demographics of the group present Nikki Haley with perhaps her best opportunity to defeat Donald Trump in a contest, given the current trajectory of the race.

Republicans in three states will caucus on Saturday.

Heading into these events, Donald Trump has won 122 delegates, while Nikki Haley has earned 24. There could be up to an additional 125 delegates awarded Saturday: 54 in Missouri, 39 in Michigan, and 32 in Idaho. 

You can see the breakdown by state at our Republican Delegate Count Map. 1,215 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

Tuesday is the Michigan primary. Voters do not register by party and are thus free to vote in either primary.

While the outcome - large wins for Joe Biden and Donald Trump - doesn't seem in doubt, there is a bit of drama associated with each party's contest.

Background

Overview

The South Carolina Republican primary is Saturday. Since 1980, with the exception of 2012, the winner of the Republican primary here has gone on to be the party's nominee. That year, Newt Gingrich finished ahead of Mitt Romney.

This is an open primary. Any registered voter that did not vote in the Democratic primary three weeks ago is eligible to participate.

It's a quiet Tuesday on the election front; we're following one contest.

Mayoral Primary

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

*_{Population rank is based on the July 1, 2022 Census Bureau estimates. It is based on the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.}

Mayor Cavalier Johnson won a special election in 2022, following the resignation of Tom Barrett.  He is now seeking a full four-year term.

Johnson is being challenged on the nonpartisan ballot by community activist Ieshuh Griffin and Pastor David King.

In a closely-watched election that could break either way, voters in New York's 3rd Congressional District will select a replacement for Republican George Santos who was expelled from the House on December 1. 

There are also several state legislative special elections.

U.S. House Special Election

New York Congressional District 3

Republicans hold a narrow 219-212 advantage over Democrats in the U.S. House. Of the four vacancies, this is the only competitive one in terms of party control. As a result, the election has taken on national importance with almost $20 million in spending.

District 3 encompasses portions of the North Shore of Long Island in Nassau County, with a small portion extending into the New York City borough of Queens. It is the wealthiest district in New York and ranked fourth in that category nationwide. Santos won by a 54% to 46% margin in 2022.

Days after receiving blowback for voting against the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Rep. Mike Gallagher (WI-08) announced his retirement. He will leave Congress at the end of this term.

— Rep. Gallagher Press Office (@RepGallagher) February 10, 2024

In his 4th term, Gallagher chairs the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.

Wisconsin's 8th congressional district is located in the northeast part of the state, and includes Green Bay. Gallagher faced no Democratic opposition in 2022, receiving 72% of the vote against a Libertarian and an independent candidate.

On Friday, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R, MT-02) made official what has long been expected by filing for the U.S. Senate race in Montana. 

Separately, in a surprise announcement, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat held by Democrat Ben Cardin, who is retiring.

Neither has an easy path, although the obstacles facing each are somewhat different. 

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), who chairs the House Energy Committee announced Thursday that she will not seek reelection this year. 

After much prayer and reflection, I’ve decided the time has come to serve the people of Eastern Washington in new ways. I will not be running for re-election to the People’s House.

My full statement: pic.twitter.com/rGeLnJoT6L

— CathyMcMorrisRodgers (@cathymcmorris) February 8, 2024

McMorris Rodgers is in her 10th term representing Washington's 5th district, which includes Spokane and encompasses Eastern Washington from the Canadian border to Oregon. One of two Republicans in the ten-member House delegation, she won her final term by a 19% margin in 2022. 

At least 41 current members - 23 Democrats and 18 Republicans - will be leaving at the end of this term.

Republicans in Nevada and the U.S. Virgin Islands will caucus on Thursday. There are 30 total delegates up for grabs, 26 of them in Nevada.

Bookmark our aggregate delegate count map to keep track through the primary and caucus season as candidates accumulate delegates toward the 1,215 needed to win the Republican nomination.

Nevada

Overview

Donald Trump could not have asked for a better outcome from Tuesday's primary. Nikki Haley, his lone remaining major challenger, lost decisively to "None of These Candidates", a ballot option unique to Nevada.

Tuesday's contest carried no weight toward the nomination, as the Nevada GOP decided to continue its tradition of using a caucus to allocate delegates. For more background, refer to our Nevada primary overview.