December 5, 2016
Unique among the 50 states, Louisiana's Election Day for Congressional races consists of a non-partisan primary (sometimes called a 'jungle primary'), where all candidates, from all parties, appear on the ballot. Unless one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two vote getters advance to a runoff.
One Senate and two House seats will be contested in this year's Louisiana runoff, set for this Saturday, December 10th. All three seats are expected to remain in Republican hands.
While these races will 'complete' the faces of the new Congress, some of President-elect Donald Trump's nominations may result in open seats in 2017.
U.S. Senate: Republican state treasurer John Kennedy faces off against Foster Campbell, a member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission. The latest polling has Kennedy ahead by double-digits. A win by Kennedy will give Republicans 52 seats in the new Senate, with Democrats gaining two seats overall in the 2016 election.
U.S. House: Districts 3 and 4 are moving to a runoff. Both seats are currently held by Republican incumbents that retired to make (unsuccessful) bids to win the above-referenced Senate seat. In the 3rd District, both participants in the runoff this Saturday are Republican, guaranteeing a party hold of that seat. While a Democratic vs. Republican runoff exists in the 4th District, the race is rated 'Safe Republican' by most pundits. Republican wins in these two races will give them 241 seats in the new Congress, down six from today's 247.
Impact of Trump Nominations on Congress: Several of Donald Trump's cabinet and other picks currently serve as Republican members of Congress. If confirmed, these seats would open up, to be filled by appointment and/or special election (laws vary by state, we haven't looked into the specfics). These include Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama (nominated for Attorney General), Rep. Tom Price of Georgia (Health & Human Services), Rep. Mike Pompeo of Kansas (CIA). Other current Members appear to be in contention for positions where Mr. Trump has not made a selection as of yet.
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November 28, 2016
Donald Trump was formally declared the winner of Michigan by that state's Board of Canvassers Monday afternoon. This action allows us to complete the 2016 electoral map, pending the actual vote of each state's Electors on December 19th.
The 10,704 vote win, out of 4.8 million votes cast, marks the closest presidential race in the state in more than 75 years*.
Click the map for an interactive version.
As we noted the other day, but will repeat here, the win in Michigan gives Trump 306 electoral votes, marking a 100 vote swing from Mitt Romney in 2012:
Trump flipped six states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, each of which last voted Republican in the 1980s. He also won Florida, Ohio and Iowa, each of which voted twice for President Obama. Trump also won an electoral vote in Maine, the first time that state has split its vote.
* Earlier reports said this was Michigan's closest race ever, but the latest information indicates 75 years. In either case, it was the closest race, in percentage terms, of any state in the 2016 presidential election.
November 25, 2016
Michigan will certify the results of its 2016 presidential election on Monday, November 28th. Donald Trump is all but certain to win the state, completing a remake of the electoral map that includes several states that haven't voted Republican in over 25 years.
Trump is expected to win the state by 10,704 votes, following the certification of results by each of the state's 83 county clerks. The state's Board of Canvassers will officially certify the results on Monday. We expect Associated Press to call the race at that time, and we'll finally be able to complete the 2016 electoral map, pending the official vote of Electors on December 19th.
It is the closest race for president in Michigan history.
Once Michigan is official, Trump will have 306 electoral votes, marking a 100 vote swing from Mitt Romney in 2012.
Trump swung six states from 2012, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, each of which last voted Republican in the 1980s. He also won Florida, Ohio and Iowa, each of which voted twice for President Obama. Trump also won an electoral vote in Maine, the first time that state has split its vote.
November 24, 2016
Based on preliminary popular vote totals, the 2016 presidential election saw a significantly larger number of states decided by a margin of 5% or less than in 2012, when only four states met that criteria. Four of these states were within 1%, including Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The four states meeting the criteria in 2012 were Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. While the latter two were again within 5% in 2016, Ohio and Virginia were decided by between 5 and 10%.
Click the map for an interactive version.
November 17, 2016
Donald Trump remains on track to win Michigan's 16 electoral votes, but the state won't officially certify the result until the end of November. At present, Trump leads by 0.3% or about 11,600 votes out of about 4.8 million votes counted.
The Detroit News reports: While there is a possibility Clinton could narrow the gap as county clerks and canvassing boards double check their results and report them to the Board of State Canvassers, the process is unlikely to change the outcome.
“In every election, small vote shifts occur during the canvassing process but nothing to the degree of having a 13,000-vote margin overturned,” said Secretary of State Office spokesman Fred Woodhams.
We'll continue to show Michigan in a lighter red on our 2016 electoral map, until the results are certified.
November 14, 2016
The Associated Press has declared Hillary Clinton the winner in New Hampshire, bringing her total to 232 electoral votes. President-elect Donald Trump has 290 electoral votes, with Michigan still not called.
As of late Monday, Trump led Michigan by 0.3%. That's about 12,000 votes out of 4.8 million cast in the state. We believe the AP is waiting to declare a winner in Michigan pending the possibility of a recount.
Trump is likely to win the state, which would bring his final total to 306, pending the official vote of Electors on December 19th. To that end, we show Michigan in a lighter red in our election results map:
November 9, 2016
Thank you for visiting 270toWin this election week. We had some intermittent site performance issues overnight Tuesday as a result of unprecedented levels of traffic. While we planned for the spike, there were still some impacts on both the user experience and our ability to keep the site updated on election night. We apologize for any inconvenience.
Defying almost all predictions, Donald J. Trump was elected president of the United States on Tuesday. Trump, who has never held political office, expanded the electoral map into states Republicans have not won for a generation or more.
Trump won large electoral prizes in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, neither of which has voted Republican since the 1980s. He took Ohio, which again proved an election bellwether. Trump also won an electoral vote in Maine, the first time that state has split its four votes.
The current map:
As of Wednesday morning, four states were uncalled. Clinton won Minnesota; that state has not voted for a Republican since 1972. As of Wednesday afternoon, Arizona looked likely to go to Trump, while Michigan and New Hampshire were virtually tied. In Michigan, Trump leads by about 0.3%, in New Hampshire it is Clinton by 0.2%. If those hold, the final map would show Trump 306, Clinton 232.
Thursday Night: Trump is declared the winner in Arizona, bringing him to 290 electoral votes. New Hampshire and Michigan remain too close to call. Only 0.3% separates Trump and Clinton in those two states. Clinton leads by that amount in New Hampshire, while Trump is ahead in Michigan.
Late Saturday: Preliminary final vote counts would indicate a Trump win in Michigan, with Clinton winning New Hampshire. However, those states have not yet been called by the Associated Press. The margins are very close, leaving open the possibility of a recount. For now, we've updated the map to award the states, but using a lighter red/blue shade to reflect this uncertainty.
Republicans Retain Control of Congress
Donald Trump will enjoy a majority in both houses of Congress. At this point, Republicans will have at least 51 seats in the new Senate. The race in New Hampshire remains too close to call. The election in Louisiana will go to a run-off on December 10th.
In the House, the current tally is 238 Republicans, 193 Democrats, with two California races uncalled, including one involving 8-term incumbent Darrell Issa. The California Republican has a small lead, while his Democratic colleague in District 7 also has a small lead. The other two races, in Louisiana, will go to run-off in December; both are expected to remain in GOP hands.
Originally posted 11/9/2016 in the morning; latest update 11/12 7:30AM.
November 9, 2016
Donald Trump won Pennsylvania early Wednesday morning, bringing his total to 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the 270 needed to win the presidential election.
November 9, 2016
Here's the electoral map as of about 1:00AM Eastern Time
Quite a few states that haven't gone red in a generation remain, enough to put Hillary Clinton over 270 electoral votes. At this point, however, she looks to be the underdog.
November 8, 2016
If you'd like a summary of what to watch for tonight, see this excellent hour-by-hour election guide.
Here's where we'll be updating results on 270toWin tonight:
President: As states are called, they'll appear in the table in the bottom half of the page. The electoral vote count will change, along with an updated probability of victory for Clinton and Trump and other stats. The electoral map on the top half of the page will also fill in.
We'll also be updating a map in the iPad App. Go to The Library > 2016 Projections. The first map there is the Election Night Map. Tap the Refresh button to see the latest state results.
Senate: Democrats need to gain 4 (if Clinton wins) or 5 to take control. The map will fill in as states are called; use the Forecast button to see expectations for the uncalled races. The table to the right will summarize the results, making it easier to see who is on track to control the Senate. Any party gains will be displayed in the table under the map.
House: Same concept as the Senate map; Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take control. The table below the map shows the most competitive races; click any state to see all the results for that state.
Governor: Only 12 gubernatorial elections this year; we'll fill in the map as those results are known.
The home page interactive electoral map will not be updated tonight. It remains available for you to create and share your own forecasts. For those looking for the Road to 270 combinations calculator, it is now available as a standalone version. There's also a related calculator for tie combinations.
Finally, here's a list of poll closing times. This is a guide for when results will begin to be reported by the media, not when your particular polling place may be open.