Election News

Florida Primary Results

August 27, 2014

 The Florida nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on August 26.   Results for races expected to be competitive in November are summarized below.

Governor:  As expected incumbent Rick Scott and former governor Charlie Crist easily dispatched their primary opponents, setting the stage for one of the most expensive election battles ever seen. Reports are that the Scott campaign (and supporters) will spend upwards of $100 million to get the governor re-elected.  Polling shows the race to be a toss-up.  

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Of Florida's 27 congressional districts, only three are seen as competitive this November.   Thank you, gerrymandering!

FL-02: Second term incumbent Republican Steve Southerland will face Gwen Graham in November; both ran unopposed in the primary. The district encompasses the eastern half of the Florida panhandle, including Tallahassee. The race is seen as a toss-up.

FL-18:  First term incumbent Democratic Patrick Murphy ran unopposed.  He will meet Carl Domino, who emerged victorious from a six-way primary.  This district is located in the southeastern part of the state, from south of Vero Beach to the northern part of the Palm Beach area.   Congressman Murphy is slightly favored to win re-election.

FL-26: This District, new after the 2010 Census reapportionment includes extreme South Florida, including southwestern parts of Miami area and the Florida Keys   Incumbent Democrat Joe Garcia ran unopposed and will meet Carlos Curbelo who beat four opponents in the Republican primary.

All other incumbents were renominated and are expected to prevail in November.

To see the current roster of Florida elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.



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Arizona Primary Results

August 27, 2014

 

The Arizona nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on August 26.   Results for races expected to be competitive in November are summarized below.

Governor:  The six-way Republican primary was won by State Treasurer Doug Ducey.  He will face Democrat Fred DuVal, who ran unopposed.  Incumbent Jan Brewer is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits.  Ducey is favored by the pundits, although polling to-date has been very close.   

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Of Arizona's 9 congressional districts,  three are seen as competitive this November:

AZ-01: Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick (D) ran unopposed.  She will meet either Andy Tobin or Gary Kiehne in November.  As of this morning, the race was too close to call, with Tobin leading by about 300 votes.   The race is seen as a toss-up.  The District encompasses most of the eastern half of the state, and is the 10th largest in geographic area in the United States.

AZ-02:  As in District 1, an incumbent Democrat is in a tight race for re-election.   Ron Barber ran unopposed and will meet retired Air Force Colonel Martha McSally in November.  McSally bested two opponents in the Republican primary.    This district includes the parts of eastern Arizona not covered by the 1st district, as well as much of the Tucson area.

AZ-09: This District, new after the 2010 Census reapportionment includes portions of the Phoenix metro area.   Incumbent Democrat Kyrsten Sinema ran unopposed.  She is a slight favorite against Republican challenger Wendy Rogers, who defeated Andrew Walter in the Republican primary.

The safely Democratic 7th District held a primary to nominate a replacement for 12 term incumbent Ed Pastor.   It was won by former State Representative Ruben Gallego.

To see the current roster of Arizona elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Minnesota Primary Results

August 13, 2014

The Minnesota nominating primaries for the November election were held on August 12.

US Senate:    Democratic incumbent Al Franken fought off nominal opposition and will face businessman Mike McFadden in November.   McFadden, the Republican party's preferred choice,  easily defeated Jim Abeler.  Franken is favored for re-election, although the race is somewhat competitive.

Governor:   As expected, incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton was easily renominated.   The Republican primary was quite competitive, with four candidates earning over 20% of the vote.  State Representative Jeff Johnson emerged victorious here.   Governor Dayton is favored for re-election, with most polls to this point giving him a 10% or greater advantage.  

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.    Minnesota's Congressional delegation is currently comprised of 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans.   All but Michele Bachmann (MN-06) are running for re-election, and all won renomination.   Two Democratic-held Districts (MN-07, MN-08) as well as one Republican District (MN-02) are expected to be competitive this November.    

To see the current roster of Minnesota elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Connecticut Primary Results

August 13, 2014

The Connecticut nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on Tuesday, August 12.   

Governor:   Incumbent Democratic Governor Dan Malloy ran uncontested and will face former Ambassador to Ireland Thomas Foley in November.   Foley defeated State Senator John McKinney to secure the Republican nomination.  While Connecticut is deep blue at the Federal level, this race is very competitive.   Polling shows the race to be tied and the professional pundits generally show the race to be a toss-up.

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.   There were no contested primaries; all incumbents will likely win re-election in November.  The only marginally competitive race this fall is in the 5th District, where incumbent Democrat Elizabeth Etsy is likely to defeat businesman Mark Greenberg.   

To see the current roster of Connecticut elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Wisconsin Primary Results

August 13, 2014

** UPDATE:  August 14 -   The AP has withdrawn its declaration of Glenn Grothman as winner in the 6th District.   Grothman leads by just 214 votes as of Thursday AM.   

The Wisconsin nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on Tuesday, August 12.   There were no major surprises in the gubernatorial or House primaries.

Governor:   Governor Scott Walker ran uncontested and will face businesswoman Mary Burke in November. Although Walker is seen as a potential contender for the 2016 Republican nomination, getting re-elected is not going to be a cakewalk.   Polling shows the race to be tied and the professional pundits generally show the race to be a toss-up.

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.   The only marginally competitive race is in the 6th District, where incumbent Republican Thomas Petri is retiring.   State Senator Glenn Grothman narrowly defeated fellow Senateor Joe Leibham for the nomination.   On the Democratic side, Winnebago County Excecutive Mark Harris ran unopposed.    The District will likely stay in Republican hands.  All other incumbents are expected to win re-election in November.

To see the current roster of Wisconsin elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Hawaii Primary Results

August 11, 2014

The Hawaii primary was held on Saturday August 9   

US Senate:    The battle between incumbent Brian Schatz and Representative Colleen Hanabusa remains undecided as of Monday morning, with Schatz holding a small lead of less than 2,000 votes.    The ultimate winner will be a heavy favorite against Republican Cam Cavasso in November.   The winner of that November election will complete the final two years of the term that began in 2010.   Incumbent Daniel Inouye died in late 2012 and Governor Abercromie appointed Schatz as interim Senator until this upcoming special election.   Abercrombie's appointment of Schatz was counter to a request by Inouye prior to his death.   In the gubernatorial result below, you can see how well that worked out for him.

Governor:   Incumbent Neil Abercrombie was obliterated 67% to 31% by State Senator David Ige in one of the worst showings by an incumbent in history.   Ige will take on Republican Duke Aiona, a former Lt. Governor, and Independent Mufi Hannemann, the former mayor of Honolulu.   This race is expected to be close in November, with Ige slightly favored at this point.

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.   Both of Hawaii's Congressional Districts are safely Democratic.

To see the current roster of Hawaii elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Tennessee Primary Results

August 8, 2014

The Tennessee primary was held on Thursday August 7.   

US Senate:    Second term incumbent Lamar Alexander held off tea party challenger Joe Carr and several other candidates.  On the Democratic side, Attorney Gordon Ball narrowly edged attorney Terry Adams to win the nomination.   Senator Alexander is heavily favored to win re-election in November.  

Governor:   As expected, incumbent Bill Haslam (R) cruised to a primary victory, while Charles Brown held off three challengers on the Democratic side.   Haslam is a prohibitive favorite to be re-elected.

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.   The composition of Tennessee's congressional House delegation is not expected to change in November.  All 9 seats (7 Republicans and 2 Democrats) are rated as safe for the incumbent party.    As of this writing, TN-04 incumbent Scott DesJarlais holds an exceptionally narrow 33 vote lead over State Senator Jim Tracy for the Republican nomination.   No winner has been declared as of yet.


Senate Simulator Launched

August 5, 2014

The new 270toWin Senate election simulator assesses the likelihood of Senate control based on the probabilities in each race.    As guidance for users, we start with the average of the probabilities calculated by the respective New York Times and Washington Post Senate forecast models.    

The real value-add here is that users can adjust those probabilities as they see fit, with each adjustment recalculating the overall probability.     There is also an option to run single simulations, similar to a popular presidential feature we have on the site.

Like other 270toWin features, the goal here is to actively engage users by providing tools to enable them to make their own election forecasts.   


Follow the 2014 Mid Term Election Polls

August 3, 2014

We've recently added poll pages for SenateHouse & Governor 2014 elections.


Fun Facts About Adjacent Congressional Districts

February 8, 2014

Mike Bostock of the New York Times has created an interactive map that allows one to visualize all the Congressional Districts adjacent to the one selected. We decided to dig into the data behind this map to see what interesting nuggets of information there might be.   Those are presented below.   The next time any of our readers appears on Jeopardy, and the category Adjacent Congressional Districts is used, he or she will be well prepared...

  • Four Congressional Districts in the Continental US are adjacent to every other District in their state, but none outside the state.   These are:  AR-02, CT-03, NM-01 and OR-05. Considering all 50 states, both Hawaii Districts qualify as well.

adj_full_state_lg

  • An additional 190 Districts are adjacent to one or more, but not all Districts in their state and none outside the state.
  • No Districts, excluding the seven states with one At-Large District, are only adjacent to districts outside their state.   (Alaska's District is not adjacent to any others).
  • The remaining 232 Districts are adjacent to Districts both inside and outside their state.

Districts adjacent to the fewest Districts:

  • In the continental US, the only District adjacent to a single other District is NY-26.   This District, which includes Buffalo, is surrounded by NY-27 and Canada.

  • 18 Districts are linked to two others:  FL-13, FL-16, FL-19, FL-21, FL-26, LA-02, ME-01, NE-02, NM-01, NV-01, NY-20, NY-25, OH-03, PA-14, SC-01, TX-16, TX-34 and UT-04.
    • Of these, all are linked to two districts in the same state except for ME-01, NE-02 and TX-16, which are each linked to one in-state and one in an adjacent state.

Districts adjacent to the most Districts and states:

  • Four Districts are adjacent to 11 others:
    • AZ-04:          Five Districts in AZ, three in CA, two in NV and one in UT.
    • CA-04:          Ten in CA and one in NV.  (Note that CA-08, with the green dot, is adjacent to both AZ-04 and CA-04).
    • MO-06:         Three in MO , two in IA, two in IL, two in KS and two in NE.
    • OH-06:         Five in OH, three in WV, two in PA and one in KY. large_district_adj
    • Eight districts are adjacent to ten others:   AZ-01, CA-08, CO-04, FL-17, IL-16, KY-04, MD-01 and TX-04.
    • NE-03 is the only District adjacent to Districts in seven states (CO, IA, KS, MO, NE, SD and WY).
    • CO-04, SD-AL and WY-AL are adjacent to those in six states.

 Love thy Neighbor?

  • 23 Democratic seats are surrounded by only Republican-held Districts, led by AL-7 with seven.
  • Only two Republicans are surrounded by all Democrats, both in New York.   NY-11 has eight adjacent Democrats, while NY-02 has three.
  • 45 Democrats are surrounded by blue, led by MA-02 with nine.
  • 48 Republicans are surrounded by red, led by TX-04 with ten.


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