Election News

From the New York Times, "President Biden on Sunday abruptly abandoned his campaign for a second term under intense pressure from fellow Democrats and threw his support to Vice President Kamala Harris to lead their party in a dramatic last-minute bid to stop former President Donald J. Trump from returning to the White House."

The article goes on to say "The president’s decision upended the race and set the stage for a raucous and unpredictable campaign unlike any in modern times, leaving Ms. Harris just 107 days to consolidate support from Democrats, establish herself as a credible national leader and prosecute the case against Mr. Trump."

As a result of this late change to the Democratic ticket, look for the following changes to 270toWin in the days ahead:

The passing of long-time Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (TX-18) on Friday created a new vacancy in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans now hold a 220-212 partisan advantage.

Jackson Lee was renominated for a 16th term in the state's March primary. Replacing her on the November ballot will fall to the Harris County Democratic Party's executive committee, who has until August 26 to nominate someone. It is up to Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to decide whether there is a special election to complete the current term. 

The death of Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr. in April created a vacancy in New Jersey's 10th congressional district. Party nominees will be chosen Tuesday, with a special general election on September 18.

The winner of the special election will serve through the end of the year.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern.

The 2024 Presidential Election Simulator and related statistics are now available on 270toWin. You can conduct individual simulated elections on your own or review the results of 25,000 simulations conducted each morning. 

The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts.

The model encompasses both fundamentals and polling. It also accounts for uncertainty, which will decrease as the election draws closer. Since we are still over 100 days from the election, that uncertainty means that any single simulation might produce a result that seems unrealistic.

Compare the expert consensus forecast with a map based exclusively on polling.  

The major difference is that the expert forecast is forward looking (i.e., the election is in November), while the polling map is more of a look at "if the election was today." 

As the election draws near, the two maps should converge. State-level polling will become more frequent, and will also get greater weighting in the expert forecasts.

This holiday week brings us just one election.

Wisconsin State Senate District 4 (Primary)

Republicans hold a large 22-10 margin in the Wisconsin State Senate. Members serve four-year, staggered terms. The even-numbered districts are up for election this year.

Rep. Michael Rulli (R) was sworn in Tuesday as the newest member of Congress. Rulli won his seat in a special election earlier this month. He will complete the term of fellow Republican Bill Johnson, who resigned earlier this year.

Republicans now hold a 219-213 partisan edge in the U.S. House. 

Colorado, New York, and Utah hold statewide primaries Tuesday. There are also runoffs from the South Carolina primary earlier this month. These are the final down-ballot primaries until late July.

There is also a special election to fill a vacancy in the U.S. House. As it coincides with the regular primary, see 'Colorado District 4' in the U.S. House section below.

Use the links below for full results, which will be available after the last poll closings shown (Eastern Time).

The Republican primary in Virginia's 5th congressional district remains uncalled as of Friday morning. 

Counting wrapped up on Tuesday's primary night with John McGuire holding a 327 vote margin over Rep. Bob Good. This total included the preliminary vote count from all precincts, but some mail-in and provisional ballots remained outstanding. Valid mailed ballots that arrive as late as noon Friday will be counted. 

McGuire claimed victory, but media outlets have said the race remains too close to call.

Oklahoma and Virginia hold statewide primaries Tuesday. There are also runoffs from Georgia's May primary. 

Use the links below for full results, which will be available after the last poll closings shown (Eastern Time).

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There are also a few state legislative special primaries in Oklahoma and Alabama. Results >>

Most of the primaries worth watching this week are for U.S. House. We discuss those below, along with one Senate contest.

U.S. Senate

Virginia

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine is seeking a third term; he faces no primary opposition.

Five Republicans are seeking the nomination. The frontrunners appear to be Navy Veteran Hung Cao and former Club for Growth VP Scott Parkinson.