270toWin Redesign

Lone Star State in Play? Trump Leads by Just 4 in New Poll

October 14, 2016

SurveyUSA finds a fairly close race in Texas, with Donald Trump having a four point edge on Hillary Clinton. From the pollster: "No Republican has carried Texas by fewer than 13 points since Bob Dole defeated Bill Clinton by 5 points 20 years ago, when Texan Ross Perot siphoned 7% of the vote. Today, Trump leads by 33 points among white Texans, but Clinton leads by 64 points among African Americans and by 23 points among Latinos."

 

Trump still leads by about 6 points in the state polling average, and he has led every poll (aside from a tied online survey) conducted this year. While the state will almost certainly yield a closer result in 2016 than in recent elections, Trump should prevail here barring a Clinton landslide. Texas last voted Democratic for Jimmy Carter in 1976.

The state still rates as leaning Trump in the electoral map based on polls.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Rep. Ted Yoho of Florida Won't Run in 2020

Will honor pledge to only serve four terms in Congress

Andrew Yang Qualifies for Final Presidential Debate of 2019

He's the seventh candidate to make the December 19 debate stage

The Road to 270: Oklahoma

The fourth in a weekly series that will cover each state's political landscape leading up to the 2020 presidential election

Introducing the 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator

The road to 1,990 pledged delegates begins in Iowa on February 3. See how the candidates are doing based on polling.

Rep. George Holding to Retire; First Casualty of Redrawn Congressional Maps

Redistricting has made the North Carolina 2nd district a safely Democratic seat