How Utah is Handled in the 2022 Senate Simulator

In lieu of a nominee, Democrats in Utah have endorsed independent Evan McMullin. He has said that he will not caucus with either party.

That may not be realistic. More likely, he caucuses with the party that can give him better visibility (i.e., the majority party).

Given today's evenly split Senate and the correlation across election outcomes, it is highly unlikely that McMullin defeats Lee AND Republicans win control of the Senate.

Therefore, for purposes of the simulator, McMullin wins will be counted in the Democratic column.

We will revisit this classification if the situation changes.