2022 Senate Election Forecasts
These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast.
Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called.
A consensus outlook for the 2022 Senate elections based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least six of them are shown in the darkest shade.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast.
November 7: Arizona moves from Tilts to Leans Democratic; Pennsylvania Tilts Democratic to Tilts Republican
This is an interactive Senate map derived from the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 35 Senate elections in 2022.
Use this map to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast.
November 7: Florida and Iowa move from Likely to Safe Republican; Iowa Safe to Likely Republican; Nevada Toss-up to Leans Democratic; New Hampshire Likely to Leans Democratic; Pennsylvania Leans Democratic to Leans Republican.