2022 House Battle for Control

House simulator results

Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results, along with some trends over time. This lets us see the full range of plausible 2022 House election outcomes.

Election Winner

Percentage of time each party wins control

Nov 7
Republicans 92.3%
Democrats 7.7%

Average Total Seats

The average outcome

Nov 7
Republicans 230.4
Democrats 204.6

Results Distribution

All outcomes and frequency of occurrence

Nov 7
Republicans
Democrats

Each bar displays the number of seats for the selected party, colored by the party in control at that number.

50 Most Competitive Districts - November 7

Based on closeness of split in winning percentage
District Democrats Republicans Difference
Minnesota-2 50.5% 49.5% 1.0%
New Hampshire-1 49.5% 50.5% 1.0%
Washington-8 49.2% 50.8% 1.6%
Nevada-3 49.0% 51.0% 2.0%
Illinois-17 51.1% 48.9% 2.2%
Ohio-13 48.6% 51.4% 2.8%
Pennsylvania-8 53.6% 46.4% 7.2%
New York-19 55.1% 44.9% 10.2%
Michigan-7 55.5% 44.5% 11.0%
Oregon-5 43.7% 56.3% 12.6%
New York-18 56.7% 43.3% 13.4%
Ohio-9 56.8% 43.2% 13.6%
New York-22 57.6% 42.4% 15.2%
New York-3 57.8% 42.2% 15.6%
Rhode Island-2 42.1% 57.9% 15.8%
Virginia-2 42.1% 57.9% 15.8%
Maine-2 59.2% 40.8% 18.4%
Iowa-3 39.7% 60.3% 20.6%
North Carolina-13 38.7% 61.3% 22.6%
Ohio-1 38.5% 61.5% 23.0%
Pennsylvania-17 37.6% 62.4% 24.8%
Oregon-6 63.4% 36.6% 26.8%
Michigan-3 64.2% 35.8% 28.4%
Nevada-1 35.4% 64.6% 29.2%
Pennsylvania-7 35.4% 64.6% 29.2%
California-22 34.1% 65.9% 31.8%
Oregon-4 67.0% 33.0% 34.0%
Connecticut-5 67.3% 32.7% 34.6%
California-27 31.4% 68.6% 37.2%
Virginia-7 69.3% 30.7% 38.6%
Michigan-8 70.3% 29.7% 40.6%
California-13 71.2% 28.8% 42.4%
Colorado-8 28.5% 71.5% 43.0%
New Mexico-2 28.4% 71.6% 43.2%
North Carolina-1 73.3% 26.7% 46.6%
California-49 79.5% 20.5% 59.0%
Nevada-4 80.1% 19.9% 60.2%
Kansas-3 83.6% 16.4% 67.2%
Texas-28 83.9% 16.1% 67.8%
California-47 84.1% 15.9% 68.2%
New Jersey-7 14.8% 85.2% 70.4%
Arizona-4 85.3% 14.7% 70.6%
Colorado-7 85.8% 14.2% 71.6%
Illinois-13 86.0% 14.0% 72.0%
Maryland-6 86.9% 13.1% 73.8%
New Hampshire-2 87.0% 13.0% 74.0%
Florida-13 12.3% 87.7% 75.4%
Illinois-6 88.7% 11.3% 77.4%
New York-1 11.3% 88.7% 77.4%
Nebraska-2 9.6% 90.4% 80.8%