2022 House Battle for Control

House simulator results

Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results, along with some trends over time. This lets us see the full range of plausible 2022 House election outcomes.

Election Winner

Percentage of time each party wins control

Sep 24
Republicans 70.5%
Democrats 29.5%

Average Total Seats

The average outcome

Sep 24
Republicans 224.5
Democrats 210.5

Results Distribution

All outcomes and frequency of occurrence

Sep 24
Republicans
Democrats

Each bar displays the number of seats for the selected party, colored by the party in control at that number.

50 Most Competitive Districts - September 24

Based on closeness of split in winning percentage
District Democrats Republicans Difference
Pennsylvania-17 50.1% 49.9% 0.2%
New York-19 49.2% 50.8% 1.6%
Ohio-1 52.6% 47.4% 5.2%
California-27 46.0% 54.0% 8.0%
Colorado-8 45.9% 54.1% 8.2%
Oregon-5 54.7% 45.3% 9.4%
California-22 55.1% 44.9% 10.2%
Kansas-3 55.7% 44.3% 11.4%
Pennsylvania-8 56.6% 43.4% 13.2%
Ohio-13 42.8% 57.2% 14.4%
Illinois-17 57.3% 42.7% 14.6%
Pennsylvania-7 42.4% 57.6% 15.2%
New Mexico-2 41.6% 58.4% 16.8%
Ohio-9 58.6% 41.4% 17.2%
Virginia-2 58.7% 41.3% 17.4%
Iowa-3 41.2% 58.8% 17.6%
New York-22 59.8% 40.2% 19.6%
North Carolina-13 38.9% 61.1% 22.2%
Minnesota-2 63.1% 36.9% 26.2%
Maine-2 63.8% 36.2% 27.6%
New York-3 65.2% 34.8% 30.4%
Washington-8 67.2% 32.8% 34.4%
New York-18 67.6% 32.4% 35.2%
New Jersey-7 29.8% 70.2% 40.4%
Michigan-8 70.7% 29.3% 41.4%
Michigan-3 70.8% 29.2% 41.6%
New Hampshire-1 71.4% 28.6% 42.8%
New York-1 27.7% 72.3% 44.6%
Nevada-3 73.4% 26.6% 46.8%
California-13 74.3% 25.7% 48.6%
North Carolina-1 74.4% 25.6% 48.8%
California-45 24.8% 75.2% 50.4%
Nebraska-2 23.7% 76.3% 52.6%
Arizona-6 23.6% 76.4% 52.8%
Arizona-1 23.4% 76.6% 53.2%
Oregon-6 76.7% 23.3% 53.4%
Michigan-7 76.9% 23.1% 53.8%
Texas-15 22.2% 77.8% 55.6%
California-49 77.9% 22.1% 55.8%
Texas-28 79.0% 21.0% 58.0%
Arizona-2 20.4% 79.6% 59.2%
Rhode Island-2 80.0% 20.0% 60.0%
Nevada-4 80.7% 19.3% 61.4%
Michigan-10 16.9% 83.1% 66.2%
Virginia-7 83.6% 16.4% 67.2%
Maryland-6 83.6% 16.4% 67.2%
Oregon-4 84.8% 15.2% 69.6%
Illinois-13 85.2% 14.8% 70.4%
Nevada-1 86.2% 13.8% 72.4%
California-47 87.6% 12.4% 75.2%