Election News

With a Caveat, Bush Leads Republican Field in Latest Poll

June 22, 2015

Jeb Bush receives 22% support, more than any of the 15 other Republicans included in the latest NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll. Scott Walker received 17% and Marco Rubio 14%, while Ben Carson saw 11%. Other candidates receiving 5% or more included Mike Huckabee (9%), Rand Paul (7%) and Rick Perry (5%). 

However: This is the first time Bush has exceeded 20% since early May when the last NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll gave him a similar 23%. In 9 intervening polls, conducted by a variety of organizations, Bush did not receive more than 15%. It is also worth noting that both of these polls have a very small sample size of about 250 Republicans, yielding a margin of error greater +/- 6%.

Who is right - NBC/WSJ or everyone else? We'll never really know since nobody is actually voting until early 2016 (and there is no national primary). 270toWin has a page that includes an average of the most recent Republican primary polls, and this shows Bush in a virtual tie with Walker, with Carson & Rubio tied for 3rd.



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Fifth Time's the Charm: Donald Trump Running for President

June 16, 2015

Businessman Donald Trump is entering the 2016 presidential race, becoming the 12th Republican to vie for that party's nomination. He made the announcement late this morning at Trump Tower, part of his self-reported $9 billion net worth.

This is the fifth time Trump has considered running for president, but the first time he has launched a formal campaign. He previously floated the idea in 1988, 2000, 2004 and 2012.   

Trump has polled around 5% when included in 2016 Republican nomination surveys. That puts him in a group that includes New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Texas Governor Rick Perry. More importantly, if this ranking holds, it places him within the top 10 candidates that will qualify for the first Republican debate this August.

An update on the Republican field follows. On the Democratic side the four announced candidates are former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley. Unlike the tightly bunched Republican field, Mrs. Clinton has a commanding lead in Democratic nomination polling.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Announced

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

Pending Decision

Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  

No Announcement Date Set 

Chris Christie Governor, New Jersey MAP
John Kasich Governor, Ohio  
Scott Walker Governor, Wisconsin MAP

 

 


Jeb Bush Officially Launches 2016 Campaign

June 15, 2015

Jeb Bush became the 15th person to formally launch a 2016 presidential campaign today, with an announcement at Miami Dade College. The former Florida governor is the 11th Republican in the race; with 4 so far on the Democratic side.

While Bush is polling relatively well, he has not broken out from the pack in a crowded Republican field. He trails likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if we look at the national polls or the electoral map based on polls.

In somewhat related news, Donald Trump is expected to make his 2016 plans known tomorrow.  


2016 Senate, House, Governor Interactive Maps Launched

June 10, 2015

270toWin has launched interactive maps for 2016 Congressional elections in the House and Senate, as well as 2015-16 elections for governor. The maps let you create your own forecasts and compare them to those from the political analytsts at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. 

As we get closer to 2016, we expect to bring in additional content, including more detailed information (candidates, polls) on each race that is forecast to be competitive.

Senate: Republicans currently control the Senate, with 54 of the 100 seats. 34 seats are up in 2016, of which 24 are held by Republicans. Democrats will need to gain four or five seats to take the majority. A four seat gain creates a 50-50 tie, with the tie-breaker going to the Vice-President. Since we don't know which party will win the 2016 presidential election, the map lets you make that projection to break the tie. 

House: Republicans also control the House, with a 246-188 advantage. One vacancy, in Illinois' 18th District, will be filled on September 10. That seat is likely to remain in Republican control. The table below the House map initially displays all races expected to be competitive. Click or tap a state to see/modify all the Districts for that state.

Governor: Three states will choose a governor in 2015, with another 12 going to the polls in 2016. Republicans currently control 31 governorships to 18 for the Democrats. Alaska governor Bill Walker is an independent.

 

 


Jeb Bush to Announce June 15; Update on Republican Field

June 4, 2015

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is expected to join the crowded 2016 Republican field on June 15, while former Texas Governor Rick Perry will announce today with a launch event scheduled for late morning outside Dallas. 

While polling thus far has not identified a breakout candidate, Bush has been running near the top, while Perry has seen support in the low single digits. There have been several national polls of the Republican field this week.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Announced

Ben Carson May 4 Former neurosurgeon  
Ted Cruz March 23 U.S. Senator, Texas MAP
Carly Fiorina May 4 Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard  
Lindsey Graham June 1 U.S. Senator, South Carolina  
Mike Huckabee May 5 Former Governor, Arkansas MAP
George Pataki May 28 Former Governor, New York  
Rand Paul April 7 U.S. Senator, Kentucky MAP
Rick Perry June 4 Former Governor, Texas  
Marco Rubio April 13 U.S. Senator, Florida MAP
Rick Santorum May 27 Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania  

Pending Decision

Jeb Bush June 15 Former Governor, Florida MAP
Bobby Jindal June 24 Governor, Louisiana  
Donald Trump June 16 Businessman  

No Announcement Date Set 

Chris Christie Governor, New Jersey MAP
John Kasich Governor, Ohio  
Scott Walker Governor, Wisconsin MAP

 

 


More Historical Interactive Maps Launched

June 2, 2015

If you are looking for the map with the drop-down historical elections, it is now available here

As of February, 2016: If you have cookies enabled on your device, any changes to one of the maps discussed below should retain its settings on future visits. Use the Reset Map button to return to historical actual.

====

270toWin continues to roll out a series of historical interactive presidential election maps. Modify results, winners and election participants to change the course of history. 

Interactive electoral maps for 46 out of 57 historical elections are now available, representing the period 1828-2012*.

2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992  
1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968  
1964 1960 1956 1952 1948 1944  
1940 1936 1932 1928 1924 1920  
1916 1912 1908 1904 1900 1896  
1892 1888 1884 1880 1876 1868  
1864 1860 1856 1852 1848 1844
1840 1836 1832 1828

*Excludes 1872. That maps as well as elections prior to 1828 should be available at a later date.


Poll Shows Five Way Tie in Republican Field

May 28, 2015

A new national poll from Quinnipiac shows a 5-way tie for the lead in a crowded Republican primary field.  Earning 10% support are Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. As of today, Bush and Walker are not declared candidates. Nine additional Republican hopefuls received at least 1% support. 

The five poll 270toWin average shows Bush with about 13.5% support, with Walker and Rubio each about 1% behind.  Carson and Paul round out the top five.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton received 57%, well ahead of Bernie Sanders who was 2nd at 15%.

Quinnipiac also surveyed general election match-ups between Clinton and eight Republicans.  The former Secretary of State leads all challengers, with Paul and Rubio closest. Each trails Clinton by 4%.  

 

 


Kasich Seems Likely to Run for President

May 27, 2015

Ohio Governor John Kasich is moving rapidly to assemble a team and the financial resources needed to launch a 2016 presidential campaign, the Washington Post reports. He is expected to join the race after June 30.

Kasich will join a crowded Republican field that will gain its 7th candidate today, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. That number may grow to 10 in the next week.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Announced

Ben Carson (Former neurosurgeon)
Ted Cruz (U.S. Senator, Texas)
Carly Fiorina (Former CEO, Hewlett-Packard)
Mike Huckabee (Former Governor, Arkansas)
Rand Paul (U.S. Senator, Kentucky)
Marco Rubio (U.S. Senator, Florida)
Rick Santorum (Former U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania)

Pending Decision (Date of Announcement)

All are expected to run

George Pataki May 28 (Former Governor, New York)
Lindsey Graham June 1 (U.S. Senator, South Carolina)
Rick Perry June 4 (Former Governor, Texas)

No Announcement Date Set

Bush & Walker all but certain to run; at or near the top of

many early polls

Jeb Bush (Former Governor, Florida)
Chris Christie (Governor, New Jersey)
Bobby Jindal (Governor, Louisiana
John Kasich (Governor, Ohio)
Donald Trump (Businessman)
Scott Walker (Governor, Wisconsin)

 

 


Fox News Caps First Republican Debate at 10 Candidates

May 20, 2015

Fox News, host of the first Republican debate of the 2016 presidential campaign, announced today a limit of 10 participants in that debate, the Washington Post reports

The debate is scheduled for August 6, in Cleveland, which is also the host city for the Republican Convention next July.

To qualify, candidates must have filed and declared their candidacy and place in the top ten of an average of the five most recent national polls as of early August. The specific qualifying polls will be determined by Fox News.

270toWin is following the Republican primary polls and, as it happens, we also have a polling average based on the five most recent polls. While the debate is obviously a ways off, the top ten currently are:

  1. Bush  
  2. Walker
  3. Rubio*
  4. Paul*
  5. Carson*
  6. Huckabee*
  7. Cruz*
  8. Christie
  9. Trump
  10. Kasich

Asterisked names have declared their candidacy. Trump and Kasich were not included in all five recent surveys. Perry just missed the cut-off, with Santorum, Jindal, Fiorina* and Graham also not currently in the top ten. 

 


Coming Soon: Historical Interactive Maps

May 18, 2015

Update:  The first three historical maps are available to try out. Let us know if you find any issues or have feedback.

1860 | 1968 | 2000

**Use the comments to let us know if you would find this feature useful and what year(s) you'd like to see first.**

One of the more popular feature requests we get is to have interactive maps for historical presidential elections. There are a lot of fans of alternate history scenarios as well as those that would like to change past electoral maps in a 'what if' kind of way.

Starting with the actual historical election result, you'll be able to modify the winner in each state and the distribution of electoral votes. You'll also be able to make some changes to the names in the race to create alternate scenarios (e.g., what if Robert Kennedy had lived and become the 1968 Democratic nominee)?

In the sample below, we have taken the 1960 election and set Illinois and Texas to undecided, putting Kennedy below the 269 electoral votes needed to win that year*. These two states' results were among many decided by 2% or less that year and were among the more controversial.

 

 

* There were 537 electoral votes in 1960, reflecting the addition of Alaska and Hawaii with 3 electoral votes each. These additions temporarily increased the size of The House from 435 to 437 Members (+100 Senators = 537). The Census reapportionment after 1960 reset the House to the required 435, while the 23rd Amendment gave Washington D.C. electoral representation with 3 electoral votes. As a result, there have been 538 electoral votes available since 1964 (435+100+3), with 270 required to win.



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