Election News

State House vacancies in Iowa and Minnesota will be filled Tuesday. There is also a special State Senate primary in Alabama.

Minnesota State House District 40B

The evenly-divided Minnesota State House has 67 Republicans and 66 Democrats. The District 40B vacancy will be filled Tuesday. Members serve two-year terms; the next regular elections are in 2026.

Located within Ramsey County on the northern side of the Minneapolis - Saint Paul area, District 40B was last represented by Democrat Jamie Becker-Finn. She won the seat by a 68% to 32% margin in 2022.

Becker-Finn retired in 2024. Democrat Curtis Johnson was elected by a similarly wide 65% to 35% margin over Republican Paul Wikstrom. However, Johnson was subsequently ruled ineligible to serve as he did not meet residency requirements.

Inside Elections released its initial House ratings this past Friday. The forecaster sees another closely-contested battle for control on the horizon. 

This article from Roll Call summarizes the projections.

Both parties start with a similar number of Safe seats: 180 for Republicans, 176 for Democrats. Adding in those rated Likely brings the total to 192 to 183 in favor of the GOP.

Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner (TX-18) has died at age 70. Turner was just two months into his first term in Congress. He won the seat long-held by fellow Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee, who died in July, 2024.^{1 1}Turner did not run in the special election held concurrently with the regular November election. That was won by Jackson Lee's daughter, Erica Lee Carter. She served until Turner was seated as part of the new Congress on January 3.Turner previously served two terms as mayor of Houston, winning that office in 2015.

A special election date will be set by Gov. Greg Abbott (R).

The current composition of the U.S. House is now 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats. There are three vacancies. The other two open seats are both in safe GOP districts in Florida. These will be filled via special election on April 1.

The first scheduled election we're following in 2025 is Tuesday's St. Louis mayoral primary. There is also a special primary for a vacant State Senate seat in Oklahoma.

Polls close for both at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

St. Louis Mayor (Primary)

St. Louis is the 76th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 280,000. That is for the city itself, not the metropolitan area. Mayors serve four-year terms.

Democrat Tishaura Jones is seeking a second term in office. She has three challengers in this nonpartisan primary, where the top two finishers will advance to the April 8 general election. 

This primary uses a system called 'approval voting'. Voters can mark their ballot for any candidates of which they approve. That can be as many as all of the candidates on the ballot. The two candidates receiving the most approval votes will advance to the April 8 general election.

Rep. Byron Donalds (FL-19) has entered the 2026 race for governor of Florida. He will look to succeed fellow Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is ineligible to run due to term limit laws. 

Donalds revealed his plans during an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox Tuesday night.

Three states are holding legislative special elections or primaries Tuesday. Results are ordered by poll closing times.

Connecticut

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern.

State Senate District 21 

Democrats hold 25 of 36 seats in the Connecticut State Senate. There are 10 Republicans, and a vacancy to be filled Tuesday. Members serve two year terms; the next regular elections are in 2026.

Sen. Mitch McConnell used the occasion of his 83rd birthday to announce he will not seek an 8th term in 2026. While the timing of this announcement was unknown, his decision to retire had been expected. McConnell stepped down as Republican leader at the end of 2024, and has had several health episodes in recent years. 

As the AP reports, "McConnell's looming departure reflects the changing dynamics of the Trump-led GOP." A "diehard adherent to Ronald Reagan's brand of traditional conservatism and muscular foreign policy, increasingly found himself out of step with a GOP shifting toward the fiery, often isolationist populism espoused by Trump."

There are two vacancies each in the Delaware and Louisiana State Senate. All were created after the incumbent was elected to another position. Special elections Saturday will fill at least three of them. 

Delaware State Senate

Democrats hold a 13-6 partisan advantage in the Delaware State Senate. The two vacant seats will be among ten next up for a four-year term in November, 2026.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. Here's an overview of the five candidates running across the two races.

District 1

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith announced Thursday that she won't seek a second full term next year. She is the second Democrat to retire this cycle; Sen. Gary Peters announced his departure late last month.

While Republicans haven't won a statewide seat in Minnesota since 2006, races have often been competitive. Kamala Harris won by 4.2% here this past November. It was her second narrowest margin of victory (after New Hampshire). Smith won by about 5% in 2020 over Republican Jason Lewis. Initial Likely Democrat 2026 ratings by Cook Political and Sabato's Crystal Ball were shifted to Lean Democrat after Smith's decision.

Smith was the Lieutenant Governor when Governor Mark Dayton (D) appointed her to the Senate in December, 2017. She was seated in January, 2018, replacing Al Franken (D), who had resigned. Smith won a special election that November, and a full term in 2020.

The Cook Political Report has issued its first set of ratings for the 2026 midterm U.S. House elections. Not surprisingly, they show another closely-contested battle for control.

Read the Analysis ($)>>

There are 203 Safe or Likely Republican seats vs. 193 for Democrats. After adding in districts leaning toward one party, the count slightly narrows to 212-205. There are 18 toss-ups.