Sabato's Crystal Ball: Final Election Forecast

This is the final 2020 election forecast from Sabato's Crystal Ball.  As is their custom, races with a toss-up rating are projected as leaning toward a party. The only exceptions this year are for the two Georgia U.S. Senate races - the forecaster sees those both as likely headed for a runoff.

November 2 updates and analysis

Maps of the final Crystal Ball projections follow. Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.


President

November 2: All toss-ups are removed. Florida, Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move to Leans Republican; Georgia and North Carolina to Leans Democratic.


Senate

November 2: Iowa moves from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican; North Carolina from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Texas from Likely to Leans Republican.

 
<

House

November 2: 18 Toss-ups moved: 11 to Leans Democratic, 7 to Leans Republican.  NV-3 moves from Likely to Leans Democratic; NC-9 Safe to Likely Republican; NC-11, WA-3 Likely to Leans Republican.

 

Governor

November 2: Montana moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican.


comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Polling Map for Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Polls are still limited for the nascent general election match-up, but will become more plentiful in the weeks ahead

Updating the 270toWin Website After Biden's Withdrawal

The site will be updated with tools to reflect an expected contest with Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee

Update on U.S. House Vacancies

The death of Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee created a third open seat; Republicans hold a 220-212 partisan edge

Live Results: New Jersey 10th Congressional District Special Primary

The winner of the September 18 special election will complete the term of the late Donald Payne Jr.

Introducing the 2024 Presidential Election Simulator

Run a simulated Biden - Trump election or view the results of 25,000 daily simulations