Crystal Ball 2020 House Ratings

Last Updated: February 6, 2020
The current 2020 House forecast from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House forecast. You can also view this forecast as a table.

February 6: 16 ratings changes.
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no 2020 election
no 2020 election
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Map Updated: Feb. 6, 2020 at 11:59 UTC (6:59 AM EST)

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Tossup
         
       

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As of Mar. 27, 2020 Details >>

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House Elections 2020
Current 232 196 1 6*
Pro 223 192 0 20
Forecast

Pro: 2020 Consensus Forecast
Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Pro Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Don Young
1973 24th
6.5% 15.2%
AR-2 French Hill
2015 3rd
6.3% 10.7%
AZ-1 Tom O'Halleran
2017 2nd
7.6% 1.1%
AZ-2 Ann Kirkpatrick
2019 1st
9.4% 4.9%
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 5th
10.3% 10.0%
CA-4 Tom McClintock
2009 6th
8.3% 14.7%
CA-7 Ami Bera
2013 4th
10.0% 11.4%
CA-10 Josh Harder
2019 1st
4.4% 3.0%
CA-21 TJ Cox
2019 1st
0.5% 15.5%
CA-22 Devin Nunes
2003 9th
5.5% 9.5%
CA-25 OPEN
8.7% 6.7%
CA-39 Gil Cisneros
2019 1st
3.1% 8.6%
CA-45 Katie Porter
2019 1st
4.1% 5.4%
CA-48 Harley Rouda
2019 1st
7.1% 1.7%
CA-50 OPEN
3.5% 15.0%
CO-3 Scott Tipton
2011 5th
7.9% 12.0%
CO-6 Jason Crow
2019 1st
11.2% 8.9%
FL-13 Charlie Crist
2017 2nd
15.2% 3.2%
FL-15 Ross Spano
2019 1st
6.0% 10.0%
FL-16 Vern Buchanan
2007 7th
9.1% 10.7%
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
2019 1st
1.7% 16.3%
FL-27 Donna Shalala
2019 1st
5.9% 19.6%
GA-6 Lucy McBath
2019 1st
1.0% 1.5%
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 5th
0.1% 6.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
IA-1 Abby Finkenauer
2019 1st
5.0% 3.5%
IA-2 David Loebsack
2007 7th
12.1% 4.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
IA-3 Cindy Axne
2019 1st
2.1% 3.5%
IA-4 Steve King
2003 9th
3.3% 27.4%
IL-6 Sean Casten
2019 1st
7.1% 7.0%
IL-13 Rodney Davis
2013 4th
1.1% 5.5%
IL-14 Lauren Underwood
2019 1st
4.9% 3.9%
IL-17 Cheri Bustos
2013 4th
23.5% 0.6%
IN-5 Susan Brooks
2013 4th
13.5% 11.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
KS-2 Steve Watkins
2019 1st
0.8% 18.4%
KS-3 Sharice Davids
2019 1st
9.6% 1.2%
KY-6 Andy Barr
2013 4th
3.2% 15.3%
MD-7 OPEN
55.1% 55.6%
ME-2 Jared Golden
2019 1st
1.0% 10.3%
MI-3 Justin Amash
2011 5th
11.2% 9.4%
MI-6 Fred Upton
1987 17th
4.5% 8.4%
MI-8 Elissa Slotkin
2019 1st
3.8% 6.7%
MI-11 Haley Stevens
2019 1st
6.6% 4.4%
MN-1 Jim Hagedorn
2019 1st
0.4% 14.9%
MN-2 Angela Craig
2019 1st
5.5% 1.2%
MN-3 Dean Phillips
2019 1st
11.4% 9.4%
MN-7 Collin Peterson
1991 15th
4.2% 30.8%
MN-8 Pete Stauber
2019 1st
5.5% 15.6%
MO-2 Ann Wagner
2013 4th
3.9% 10.3%
MT-AL Greg Gianforte
2017 2nd
4.6% 20.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-2 George Holding
2013 4th
N/A 24.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-6 Mark Walker
2015 3rd
N/A 21.5%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-8 Richard Hudson
2013 4th
N/A 9.1%
NC-9 Dan Bishop
2019 1st
N/A 10.4%
NC-11 OPEN
N/A 17.3%
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 2nd
1.9% 2.2%
NH-1 Chris Pappas
2019 1st
8.5% 1.6%
NH-2 Ann Kuster
2013 4th
12.7% 2.4%
NJ-2 Jeff Van Drew
2019 1st
7.6% 4.6%
NJ-3 Andy Kim
2019 1st
1.2% 6.2%
NJ-5 Josh Gottheimer
2017 2nd
16.9% 1.0%
NJ-7 Tom Malinowski
2019 1st
5.0% 1.1%
NJ-11 Mikie Sherrill
2019 1st
14.6% 0.8%
NM-2 Xochitl Torres Small
2019 1st
1.8% 10.2%
NV-3 Susie Lee
2019 1st
9.0% 1.0%
NV-4 Steven Horsford
2019 1st
8.1% 4.9%
NY-1 Lee Zeldin
2015 3rd
6.0% 12.3%
NY-2 Peter King
1993 14th
6.7% 9.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NY-11 Max Rose
2019 1st
5.9% 9.8%
NY-18 Sean P. Maloney
2013 4th
10.1% 1.9%
NY-19 Antonio Delgado
2019 1st
2.8% 6.8%
NY-22 Anthony Brindisi
2019 1st
1.2% 15.5%
NY-24 John Katko
2015 3rd
6.2% 3.6%
NY-27 OPEN
0.5% 24.5%
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 5th
4.2% 6.6%
OH-12 Troy Balderson
2018 2nd
4.1% 11.3%
OK-5 Kendra Horn
2019 1st
1.3% 13.4%
OR-4 Peter DeFazio
1987 17th
15.0% 0.1%
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
2017 2nd
2.5% 2.0%
PA-7 Susan Wild
2018 2nd
10.0% 1.1%
PA-8 Matthew Cartwright
2013 4th
9.2% 9.5%
PA-10 Scott Perry
2013 4th
2.6% 8.9%
PA-17 Conor Lamb
2018 2nd
12.5% 2.5%
SC-1 Joe Cunningham
2019 1st
1.3% 13.1%
TX-2 Daniel Crenshaw
2019 1st
7.2% 9.3%
TX-7 Lizzie Fletcher
2019 1st
5.0% 1.4%
TX-10 Michael McCaul
2005 8th
3.9% 9.0%
TX-21 Chip Roy
2019 1st
2.8% 10.0%
TX-22 Pete Olson
2009 6th
4.9% 7.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-23 Will Hurd
2015 3rd
0.4% 3.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-24 Kenny Marchant
2005 8th
3.2% 6.2%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-31 John Carter
2003 9th
2.9% 12.7%
TX-32 Colin Allred
2019 1st
6.3% 1.9%
UT-4 Ben McAdams
2019 1st
0.2% 6.7%
VA-2 Elaine Luria
2019 1st
2.2% 3.4%
VA-5 Denver Riggleman
2019 1st
6.5% 11.1%
VA-7 Abigail Spanberger
2019 1st
1.9% 6.5%
VA-10 Jennifer Wexton
2019 1st
12.3% 10.0%
WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler
2011 5th
5.3% 7.4%
WA-8 Kim Schrier
2019 1st
4.8% 3.0%
WI-3 Ron Kind
1997 12th
19.3% 4.5%
WI-7 OPEN
21.6% 20.5%
AL-1 Bradley Byrne
2014 4th
26.3% 29.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
AL-2 Martha Roby
2011 5th
22.9% 31.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
AL-3 Mike Rogers
2003 9th
27.4% 33.0%
AL-4 Robert Aderholt
1997 12th
59.6% 63.0%
AL-5 Mo Brooks
2011 5th
22.1% 33.4%
AL-6 Gary Palmer
2015 3rd
38.4% 44.7%
AL-7 Terri Sewell
2011 5th
* 41.2%
AR-1 Rick Crawford
2011 5th
40.1% 34.8%
AR-3 Steve Womack
2011 5th
32.1% 31.4%
AR-4 Bruce Westerman
2015 3rd
35.5% 32.9%
AZ-3 Raul Grijalva
2003 9th
27.7% 29.9%
AZ-4 Paul Gosar
2011 5th
37.6% 40.2%
AZ-5 Andy Biggs
2017 2nd
18.8% 21.1%
AZ-7 Ruben Gallego
2015 3rd
85.8% 49.2%
AZ-8 Debbie Lesko
2018 2nd
10.9% 21.1%
AZ-9 Greg Stanton
2019 1st
22.1% 16.3%
CA-1 Doug LaMalfa
2013 4th
9.7% 19.7%
CA-2 Jared Huffman
2013 4th
53.4% 45.7%
CA-3 John Garamendi
2009 6th
16.0% 12.6%
CA-5 Mike Thompson
1999 11th
78.3% 44.9%
CA-6 Doris Matsui
2005 8th
61.2% ^ 44.8%
CA-8 Paul Cook
2013 4th
20.2% ^ 15.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
CA-9 Jerry McNerney
2007 7th
12.8% 18.6%
CA-11 Mark DeSaulnier
2015 3rd
48.2% 48.8%
CA-12 Nancy Pelosi
1987 17th
73.6% 77.5%
CA-13 Barbara Lee
1998 12th
88.3% 80.6%
CA-14 Jackie Speier
2008 7th
58.4% 58.7%
CA-15 Eric Swalwell
2013 4th
45.9% 45.7%
CA-16 Jim Costa
2013 4th
14.9% 21.6%
CA-17 Ro Khanna
2017 2nd
50.6% 53.4%
CA-18 Anna Eshoo
1993 14th
48.9% 53.2%
CA-19 Zoe Lofgren
1995 13th
47.4% 51.4%
CA-20 Jimmy Panetta
2017 2nd
81.2% 47.2%
CA-23 Kevin McCarthy
2007 7th
27.5% 22.0%
CA-24 Salud Carbajal
2017 2nd
16.1% 20.2%
CA-26 Julia Brownley
2013 4th
23.5% 21.9%
CA-27 Judy Chu
2009 6th
58.6% ^ 37.6%
CA-28 Adam Schiff
2001 10th
56.7% 49.8%
CA-29 Tony Cardenas
2013 4th
61.2% 60.9%
CA-30 Brad Sherman
1997 12th
46.8% 43.4%
CA-31 Pete Aguilar
2015 3rd
17.2% 21.1%
CA-32 Grace Napolitano
1999 11th
37.5% 38.9%
CA-33 Ted Lieu
2015 3rd
40.0% 41.3%
CA-34 Jimmy Gomez
2017 2nd
72.5% 72.9%
CA-35 Norma Torres
2015 3rd
38.7% 40.8%
CA-36 Raul Ruiz
2013 4th
17.1% 8.8%
CA-37 Karen Bass
2011 5th
78.1% 76.1%
CA-38 Linda Sanchez
2003 9th
37.7% 39.6%
CA-40 Lucille Roybal-Allard
1993 14th
77.3% 69.4%
CA-41 Mark Takano
2013 4th
28.6% 27.9%
CA-42 Ken Calvert
1993 14th
13.8% 12.0%
CA-43 Maxine Waters
1991 15th
55.3% 61.7%
CA-44 Nanette Barragan
2017 2nd
37.0% ^ 70.7%
CA-46 Lou Correa
2017 2nd
38.2% 38.4%
CA-47 Alan Lowenthal
2013 4th
29.7% 31.6%
CA-49 Mike Levin
2019 1st
12.7% 7.5%
CA-51 Juan Vargas
2013 4th
42.1% 49.0%
CA-52 Scott Peters
2013 4th
27.6% 22.5%
CA-53 Susan Davis
2001 10th
37.9% 34.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
CO-1 Diana DeGette
1997 12th
50.7% 45.8%
CO-2 Joe Neguse
2019 1st
26.6% 21.3%
CO-4 Ken Buck
2015 3rd
21.2% 23.1%
CO-5 Doug Lamborn
2007 7th
17.7% 24.0%
CO-7 Ed Perlmutter
2007 7th
25.0% 12.0%
CT-1 John Larson
1999 11th
28.8% 23.1%
CT-2 Joe Courtney
2007 7th
26.7% 2.9%
CT-3 Rosa DeLauro
1991 15th
29.1% 15.5%
CT-4 James Himes
2009 6th
22.4% 23.0%
CT-5 Jahana Hayes
2019 1st
11.7% 4.1%
DE-AL Lisa Rochester
2017 2nd
28.9% 11.5%
FL-1 Matt Gaetz
2017 2nd
34.1% 39.3%
FL-2 Neal Dunn
2017 2nd
34.8% 35.6%
FL-3 Ted Yoho
2013 4th
15.2% 16.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
FL-4 John Rutherford
2017 2nd
32.8% 28.0%
FL-5 Al Lawson
2017 2nd
33.5% 25.4%
FL-6 Michael Waltz
2019 1st
12.6% 17.0%
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy
2017 2nd
15.3% 7.3%
FL-8 Bill Posey
2009 6th
20.9% 20.7%