A consensus outlook for the 2018 gubernatorial elections based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all three of these forecasters are shown in the darkest shade.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2018 forecast for this year's 36 races for governor.
The states shown in tan are those likely to be the most closely-contested among the 36 gubernatorial elections held in 2018. This map may change over time as the dynamics of each race (e.g., party nominees and the overall political environment) warrant.
This is a governor forecast map derived from the probabilities associated with the FiveThirtyEight Governor Forecast (Classic Version).
The toss-up tan color is used when neither party has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Color gradients are used to show higher Democratic and Republican probabilities, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). The map reflects the model output as of the timestamp below it.
Use this map to create and share your own forecast for this year's 36 races for governor.
Final 2018 gubernatorial race analysis and forecast from Louis Jacobson who has handicapped elections since 2006, most recently for Governing magazine, where he writes a twice-monthly column on state politics. Jacobson is also a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2018.
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