UPCOMING

FiveThirtyEight House Forecast

Final Ratings: November 6, 2018
This is a House forecast map derived from the probabilities associated with the FiveThirtyEight House Forecast (Classic Version).

The toss-up tan color is used when neither party has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Color gradients are used to show higher Democratic and Republican probabilities, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). The map reflects the model output as of the timestamp below it.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2018 House forecast. You can also view this forecast as a table.
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House Elections 2018
Current 197 236 0 2*
Pro 210 197 0 28
Forecast

Pro: 2018 Consensus Forecast
Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Pro Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Don Young
1973 23rd
14.3% 15.2%
AR-2 French Hill
2015 2nd
21.5% 10.7%
AZ-1 Tom O'Halleran
2017 1st
7.3% 1.1%
AZ-2 Martha McSally
2015 2nd
13.9% 4.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 4th
24.3% 10.0%
AZ-8 Debbie Lesko
2018 1st
37.1% 21.1%
CA-1 Doug LaMalfa
2013 3rd
18.1% 19.7%
CA-4 Tom McClintock
2009 5th
25.4% 14.7%
CA-7 Ami Bera
2013 3rd
2.3% 11.4%
CA-10 Jeff Denham
2011 4th
3.4% 3.0%
CA-16 Jim Costa
2013 3rd
16.1% 21.6%
CA-21 David Valadao
2013 3rd
13.5% 15.5%
CA-22 Devin Nunes
2003 8th
35.1% 9.5%
CA-24 Salud Carbajal
2017 1st
6.8% 20.2%
CA-25 Steve Knight
2015 2nd
6.3% 6.7%
CA-39 Edward Royce
1993 13th
14.5% 8.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-45 Mimi Walters
2015 2nd
17.1% 5.4%
CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher
1989 15th
16.6% 1.7%
CA-49 Darrell Issa
2001 9th
0.5% 7.5%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-50 Duncan Hunter
2009 5th
26.9% 15.0%
CO-3 Scott Tipton
2011 4th
14.3% 12.0%
CO-6 Mike Coffman
2009 5th
8.3% 8.9%
FL-6 OPEN
17.1% 17.0%
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy
2017 1st
3.0% 7.3%
FL-15 Dennis Ross
2011 4th
14.9% 10.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
FL-16 Vern Buchanan
2007 6th
19.5% 10.7%
FL-18 Brian Mast
2017 1st
10.5% 9.2%
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart
2003 8th
24.7% 1.8%
FL-26 Carlos Curbelo
2015 2nd
11.8% 16.3%
FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
1989 15th
9.8% 19.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
GA-6 Karen Handel
2017 1st
23.4% 1.5%
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 4th
20.8% 6.3%
IA-1 Rod Blum
2015 2nd
7.7% 3.5%
IA-3 David Young
2015 2nd
13.7% 3.5%
IA-4 Steve King
2003 8th
22.6% 27.4%
IL-6 Peter Roskam
2007 6th
18.4% 7.0%
IL-12 Mike Bost
2015 2nd
14.6% 14.8%
IL-13 Rodney Davis
2013 3rd
19.3% 5.5%
IL-14 Randy Hultgren
2011 4th
18.6% 3.9%
IN-2 Jackie Walorski
2013 3rd
22.3% 23.2%
IN-9 Trey Hollingsworth
2017 1st
13.7% 26.9%
KS-2 Lynn Jenkins
2009 5th
28.4% 18.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
KS-3 Kevin Yoder
2011 4th
10.7% 1.2%
KY-6 Andy Barr
2013 3rd
22.2% 15.3%
ME-2 Bruce Poliquin
2015 2nd
9.6% 10.3%
MI-1 Jack Bergman
2017 1st
14.8% 21.3%
MI-2 Bill Huizenga
2011 4th
30.1% 17.6%
MI-3 Justin Amash
2011 4th
21.9% 9.4%
MI-6 Fred Upton
1987 16th
22.2% 8.4%
MI-7 Tim Walberg
2011 4th
15.0% 17.0%
MI-8 Mike Bishop
2015 2nd
16.9% 6.7%
MI-11 Dave Trott
2015 2nd
12.8% 4.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MN-1 Timothy Walz
2007 6th
0.8% 14.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MN-2 Jason Lewis
2017 1st
1.8% 1.2%
MN-3 Erik Paulsen
2009 5th
13.7% 9.4%
MN-7 Collin Peterson
1991 14th
5.0% 30.8%
MN-8 Rick Nolan
2013 3rd
0.6% 15.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MO-2 Ann Wagner
2013 3rd
20.9% 10.3%
MT-AL Greg Gianforte
2017 1st
15.6% 20.6%
NC-2 George Holding
2013 3rd
13.4% 9.6%
NC-8 Richard Hudson
2013 3rd
17.5% 15.0%
NC-9 Robert Pittenger
2013 3rd
16.4% 11.6%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2018 election.
NC-13 Ted Budd
2017 1st
12.2% 9.4%
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 1st
1.2% 2.2%
NH-1 Carol-Shea Porter
2017 1st
1.3% 1.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NJ-2 Frank LoBiondo
1995 12th
22.0% 4.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NJ-3 Tom MacArthur
2015 2nd
20.4% 6.2%
NJ-5 Josh Gottheimer
2017 1st
4.4% 1.0%
NJ-7 Leonard Lance
2009 5th
11.0% 1.1%
NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen
1995 12th
19.1% 0.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NM-2 Steve Pearce
2011 4th
25.5% 10.2%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NV-3 Jacky Rosen
2017 1st
1.3% 1.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NV-4 Ruben Kihuen
2017 1st
4.0% 4.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NY-1 Lee Zeldin
2015 2nd
17.9% 12.3%
NY-2 Peter King
1993 13th
24.9% 9.1%
NY-11 Daniel Donovan
2015 2nd
24.9% 9.8%
NY-18 Sean P. Maloney
2013 3rd
11.2% 1.9%
NY-19 John Faso
2017 1st
8.6% 6.8%
NY-21 Elise Stefanik
2015 2nd
35.1% 13.9%
NY-22 Claudia Tenney
2017 1st
5.5% 15.5%
NY-23 Tom Reed
2010 5th
15.2% 14.8%
NY-24 John Katko
2015 2nd
21.1% 3.6%
NY-27 Chris Collins
2013 3rd
34.4% 24.5%
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 4th
18.4% 6.6%
OH-7 Bob Gibbs
2011 4th
35.1% 29.7%
OH-10 Michael Turner
2003 8th
31.4% 7.3%
OH-12 Troy Balderson
2018 1st
36.7% 11.3%
OH-14 David Joyce
2013 3rd
25.2% 11.5%
OH-15 Steve Stivers
2011 4th
32.3% 15.4%
OK-5 Steve Russell
2015 2nd
20.3% 13.4%
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
2017 1st
N/A 2.0%
Redrawn PA-1 is mostly current PA-8 (Fitzpatrick)
PA-5 Mary Gay Scanlon
2018 1st
N/A 28.2%
Redrawn PA-5 is about 50% current PA-7, vacated by Meehan. Scanlon won special election in PA-7
PA-6 Ryan Costello
2015 2nd
N/A 9.3%
Redrawn PA-6 is about 50% current PA-6 (Costello, retiring)
PA-7 Susan Wild
2018 1st
N/A 1.1%
Redrawn PA-7 is mostly current PA-15 vacated by Dent. Wild won special election in PA-15
PA-8 Matthew Cartwright
2013 3rd
N/A 9.5%
Redrawn PA-8 is about 50% current PA-17 (Cartwright)
PA-10 Scott Perry
2013 3rd
N/A 8.9%
Redrawn PA-10 is about 60% current PA-4 (Perry), 30% current PA-11 (Barletta, running for Senate)
PA-14 Conor Lamb
2018 1st
N/A 29.0%
Redrawn PA-14 is majority current PA-18. Lamb running for re-election in PA-17
PA-16 Mike Kelly
2011 4th
N/A 19.9%
Redrawn PA-16 is mostly current PA-3 (Kelly)
PA-17 Keith Rothfus
2013 3rd
N/A 2.5%
Redrawn PA-17 is majority current PA-12 (Rothfus); Conor Lamb (current PA-18) running vs. Rothfus
SC-1 Mark Sanford
2013 3rd
21.7% 13.1%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2018 election.
TX-2 Ted Poe
2005 7th
24.6% 9.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-6 Joe Barton
1985 17th
19.3% 12.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-7 John Culberson
2001 9th
12.3% 1.4%
TX-10 Michael McCaul
2005 7th
18.9% 9.0%
TX-21 Lamar Smith
1987 16th
20.6% 10.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-22 Pete Olson
2009 5th
19.0% 7.9%
TX-23 Will Hurd
2015 2nd
1.3% 3.4%
TX-24 Kenny Marchant
2005 7th
16.9% 6.2%
TX-31 John Carter
2003 8th
21.9% 12.7%
TX-32 Pete Sessions
1997 11th
52.1% 1.9%
UT-4 Mia Love
2015 2nd
12.5% 6.7%
VA-2 Scott Taylor
2017 1st
22.9% 3.4%
VA-5 Tom Garrett
2017 1st
16.7% 11.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
VA-7 Dave Brat
2014 3rd
15.3% 6.5%
VA-10 Barbara Comstock
2015 2nd
5.8% 10.0%
WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler
2011 4th
23.5% 7.4%
WA-5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers
2005 7th
19.3% 13.1%
WA-8 Dave Reichert
2005 7th
20.4% 3.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
WI-1 Paul Ryan
1999 10th
34.8% 10.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
WI-6 Glenn Grothman
2015 2nd
19.9% 16.9%
WV-2 Alex Mooney
2015 2nd
16.4% 36.4%
WV-3 OPEN
43.9% 49.2%
AL-1 Bradley Byrne
2014 3rd
* 29.4%
AL-2 Martha Roby
2011 4th
8.2% 31.9%
AL-3 Mike Rogers
2003 8th
34.0% 33.0%
AL-4 Robert Aderholt
1997 11th
* 63.0%
AL-5 Mo Brooks
2011 4th
33.5% 33.4%
AL-6 Gary Palmer
2015 2nd
49.1% 44.7%
AL-7 Terri Sewell
2011 4th
* 41.2%
AR-1 Rick Crawford
2011 4th
52.6% 34.8%
AR-3 Steve Womack
2011 4th
54.6% 31.4%
AR-4 Bruce Westerman
2015 2nd
49.8% 32.9%
AZ-3 Raul Grijalva
2003 8th
* 29.9%
AZ-4 Paul Gosar
2011 4th
42.9% 40.2%
AZ-5 Andy Biggs
2017 1st
28.2% 21.1%
AZ-7 Ruben Gallego
2015 2nd
50.5% 49.2%
AZ-9 Kyrsten Sinema
2013 3rd
21.9% 16.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-2 Jared Huffman
2013 3rd
53.7% 45.7%
CA-3 John Garamendi
2009 5th
18.7% 12.6%
CA-5 Mike Thompson
1999 10th
53.7% 44.9%
CA-6 Doris Matsui
2005 7th
50.9% 44.8%
CA-8 Paul Cook
2013 3rd
24.5% 15.1%
CA-9 Jerry McNerney
2007 6th
14.7% 18.6%
CA-11 Mark DeSaulnier
2015 2nd
44.1% 48.8%
CA-12 Nancy Pelosi
1987 16th
61.7% 77.5%
CA-13 Barbara Lee
1998 11th
81.6% 80.6%
CA-14 Jackie Speier
2008 6th
61.7% 58.7%
CA-15 Eric Swalwell
2013 3rd
47.5% 45.7%
CA-17 Ro Khanna
2017 1st
22.0% ^ 53.4%
CA-18 Anna Eshoo
1993 13th
42.3% 53.2%
CA-19 Zoe Lofgren
1995 12th
47.9% 51.4%
CA-20 Jimmy Panetta
2017 1st
41.5% 47.2%
CA-23 Kevin McCarthy
2007 6th
38.4% 22.0%
CA-26 Julia Brownley
2013 3rd
20.8% 21.9%
CA-27 Judy Chu
2009 5th
34.8% 37.6%
CA-28 Adam Schiff
2001 9th
56.0% 49.8%
CA-29 Tony Cardenas
2013 3rd
49.5% ^ 60.9%
CA-30 Brad Sherman
1997 11th
45.3% 43.4%
CA-31 Pete Aguilar
2015 2nd
12.1% 21.1%
CA-32 Grace Napolitano
1999 10th<