Six Seats May Decide the Battle for Senate Control

Depending on how the presidential race shakes out over the next four weeks, the biggest battle on Election Day may be for control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans currently control with 54 seats, Democrats (including two independents) have 46. Since the Vice-President breaks any ties, Democrats will need to gain four seats if Clinton wins, five if Trump prevails.

Of the 34 seats up this year, 24 are currently held by Republicans. Looking at the Senate ratings from three pundits (Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg & Gonzales), 18 seats seem to be safe for the incumbent party. Of the remaining 16, five are rated safe by two of the three pundits, so are not likely to change hands. That leaves 11 competitive seats, only one of which - Nevada - is currently in Democratic hands.

 

Looking at those 11 seats, Illinois and Wisconsin seem to be the Republican seats most likely to flip, although the Wisconsin polling has been quite a bit closer lately. The incumbent Republicans in three states (Arizona, Florida, Ohio) are leading in the polls. If those five seats fall that way, we'll have 47 Democrats and 47 Republicans, meaning control of the Senate would depend on the remaining six toss-up races:


Click or tap the map to create and share your own 2016 Senate forecast. 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Rep. Louie Gohmert Running for Texas Attorney General Next Year

He's leaving a safe seat in an attempt to unseat incumbent Republican Ken Paxton

Live Results: Mississippi State Senate Special Election Runoff

No candidate received a majority of the vote on November 2; this runoff will fill a vacancy

Vermont Rep. Peter Welch Running to Replace Retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy

He has been the state's at-large House representative since being elected in 2006.

Texas Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson to Retire

Now in her 15th term, she represents a safely Democratic Dallas-area district

North Carolina Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield to Retire in 2022

His district became somewhat less favorable in the redistricting maps recently approved by the state legislature