Updated 'Crystal Ball' Electoral Map Looks Promising for Clinton in a Match-up WIth Trump

April 1, 2016

The electoral map for a Clinton vs. Trump match-up in November points to a relatively easy victory for the likely Democratic nominee, according to an updated forecast by the team at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. This is their first attempt at projecting the 2016 election based on a match-up of current frontrunners. 

The prior generic forecast looked a lot like the electoral map we've grown accustomed to in the last several presidential elections, favoring a Democrat by 247-206, with 85 electoral votes in toss-up states. The Clinton-Trump map eliminates all toss-ups, moving them to the Clinton column as 'Leans Democratic'. The ratings of seven other states, plus NE-2, were shifted in Clinton's direction.

The article also discusses a possible Clinton-Cruz match-up. While this would likely be somewhat closer, Clinton would seem to be favored here as well. In either case, the polarized nature of the country makes a Democratic landslide, like in the 1964 Johnson-Goldwater election, unlikely.

An interactive version of the forecast map follows. Use it to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast. 


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Delaware and New Jersey Primaries: Overview and Live Results

Both states hold their rescheduled presidential primaries; New Jersey also offers some interesting congressional contests

Unanimous Supreme Court Says States Can Punish or Replace Faithless Electors

Settles various court cases emerging from the 2016 election that saw 10 electors attempt to be faithless to their pledged candidate

The Road to 270: South Carolina

Bordered by two competitive 2020 states (NC and GA), the state seems safe for Trump. It remains to be seen if his coattails help reelect Graham and/or regain SC-1

Rep. Scott Tipton Ousted in CO-3 GOP Primary

Becomes 5th incumbent to lose this year

Overview and Live Results for June 30 Primaries in Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah

A handful of interesting races to watch, including Dem. Senate primary in Colorado and a very tight GOP gubernatorial race in Utah.