February 18, 2015
Hillary Clinton has a significant lead in Iowa against all five prospective Republican nominees tested in a new Quinnipiac swing state poll released today (February 18). Quinnipiac also surveyed Virginia where the results were much tighter. There was quite a bit more variability in Colorado, where the results varied significantly based on match-up.
Quinnipiac polled over 1,000 voters in each of the three states, testing Clinton against Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Scott Walker. The margin of error for each poll was +/- 3%.
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Clinton holds a 10% lead over Christie, Bush and Walker, slightly smaller leads over Huckabee and Paul. There were more undecideds in Iowa than in the other two states while Clinton's total was essentially the same across the board. Obama won Iowa by 6% in 2012.
Paul and Walker performed best here, both within the margin of error. Christie and Bush performed relatively poorly here. As in the other states surveyed, Clinton's total was fairly consistent regardless of candidate making these polls somewhat a proxy of the current popularity of each Republican in that state. Obama won Colorado by about 5.5% in 2012.
Bush polled even with Clinton here, the best Republican result in all three states. All five match-ups were within 5%, indicating a very competitive race. In 2012, Obama won the state by 4%.
Kansas Republicans opted for nominees with better general election prospects, while a dynastic Missouri Democratic congressman was defeated
After a two week break, August 4 brings us primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington
Biden is likely to prevail here, but a competitive electoral vote available in the state's 2nd congressional district - won by Trump in 2016 - will draw considerable attention.
See how often a state votes with the election winner and also which states most frequently put the winner across the 270 electoral vote threshold.
Reliably Republican at the presidential level through most of the 20th century, it has voted Democratic since 2008 and looks fairly safe for Joe Biden in 2020