Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Trump Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Trump outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Map :
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Headlines
Overview and Live Results: Illinois and Ohio Primaries
The marquee race is the Republican primary for Senate in Ohio. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is seeking his 4th term.
Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus
The territory holds the first GOP contest since Donald Trump clinched the nomination
Biden and Trump Poised to Clinch Party Nominations: Live Results for March 12 Primaries
The cancellation of Florida's Democratic primary puts Biden on track to reach the delegate threshold a week earlier than expected
Live Results: American Samoa Republican Caucus
The South Pacific territory holds the first GOP contest since Nikki Haley ended her campaign.
Overview and Live Results: Hawaii Democratic Caucus
One day after Super Tuesday, Democrats in the 50th state will make their presidential preference known.
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