Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Trump Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Trump outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Map :
DeSantis Pledges to ‘Supersede’ Obamacare
DeSantis Says He’ll Win Iowa
DeSantis Visits All 99 Iowa Counties
Trump Tries to Spin Authoritarian Criticism
More Turmoil at DeSantis Super PAC
Headlines
George Santos Expelled from House of Representatives
311 members voted to remove the New York Republican from office
Celeste Maloy Sworn In; U.S. House Back at Full Strength
The Utah Republican won a special election earlier this month to fill the vacancy created when Chris Stewart resigned
California Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo to Retire Next Year
First elected in 1992, she will complete her 16th term in 2024
Overview and Live Results: Utah 2nd Congressional District Special Election
The lone vacancy in the U.S. House will be filled by the winner, who will complete the term of Chris Stewart (R), who resigned in September
California Democratic Rep. Tony Cárdenas Not Seeking Reelection
He represents a deep blue district in the Los Angeles area
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