Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Trump Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Trump outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Sabato's Crystal Ball Initial 2025-26 Gubernatorial Ratings
38 seats will hold elections through 2026, including New Jersey and Virginia this year
Live Results: April 29 Iowa and Minnesota Legislative Special Elections
Vacancies will be filled in the Iowa State House and Minnesota State Senate
Rep. Andy Barr Running to Succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell
A closely-contested primary against former Attorney General Daniel Cameron is expected.
Live Results: April 22 Connecticut and Mississippi State House Special Elections
Three vacancies will be filled across these two states
Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens Running for U.S. Senate
She will look to succeed retiring fellow Democratic Sen. Gary Peters
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