Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Trump Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Trump outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
You are viewing:
VT |
|
NH |
|
MA |
|
RI |
|
CT |
|
NJ |
|
DE |
|
MD |
|
DC |
Map :
Headlines
Election Recap June 3, 2025: Dems Hold State House Seat in South Carolina
On a related note, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has scheduled the special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly
Live Results: South Carolina State House District 50 Special Election
This will fill the one vacancy in the Republican-dominated chamber
Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville Announces Gubernatorial Campaign
He'll be the favorite to succeed termed-out Gov. Kay Ivey in this deep red state
Election Recap May 20, 2025: Pittsburgh Mayor Ousted in Primary
Mayor Ed Gainey was defeated by a more centrist Democrat.
Overview and Live Results: Pennsylvania Primaries
Pittsburgh's Mayor and the Philly DA will need to prevail against credible challengers to win renomination
Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map: Select 'Share Map' button above. Share or Embed your Map: