Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Trump Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Trump outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Legislative Special Elections in Virginia and New Hampshire
A state senate election in Virginia and state house primaries in New Hampshire. Both seats are solidly Democratic
Live Results: Louisiana House District 93 Special Election
An unusual Saturday special election sees two Democrats vying for this vacant New Orleans seat
Live Results: Jacksonville Mayor, Georgia State House Special Election
Voters in the largest city with a Republican mayor select a replacement for the term-limited incumbent.
Live Results: Oklahoma Marijuana Legalization
A yes vote in this special election would make Oklahoma the 22nd state to legalize recreational marijuana
Live Florida Election Results: Tampa Mayor, House District 24 Special GOP Primary
Tampa Mayor Jane Castor should cruise to a 2nd term; five Republicans compete for an Ocala-area House vacancy
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