Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Biden Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Biden outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
New and Updated Features on the 270toWin Website
The electoral map is changing for 2024. This update includes the projected changes as well as Senate and governor maps for 2022
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The 6th term Republican is the longest serving Senator in the state's history
Update: 2020 Election if All States Allocated Electoral Votes Like Maine and Nebraska
Biden would have won a narrower 277-261 using this congressional district method, one which is heavily influenced by the number of gerrymandered districts around the country
Sabato's Crystal Ball Initial Ratings for 2022 Senate Election
Another tight battle for control appears on tap in the 2022 midterms
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