Princeton Election Consortium

Map if Biden Outperforms Polls by 3%

Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Biden outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.

You can view the full series of three maps here.

A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases:  Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.


The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
no 2020 election
no 2020 election

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
1 2 3

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Rubio Says If Biden Exits He Should Resign

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) said that if President Biden withdraws from the 2024 race...

Pelosi Is in No Mood to Lose With Biden

“Nancy Pelosi is all about winning. Regarded by many as her party’s most ruthless...

Jaime Raskin Urged Biden to Reconsider Run

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) sent a letter to President Biden on July 6 where he very...

Al Shapton Calls on Biden to End Run

The Rev. Al Sharpton said  that he had told President Biden it was time for...

Bonus Quote of the Day

“This is an absolute debacle. Only amateurs see a path. The red is mushrooming all...


Live Results: New Jersey 10th Congressional District Special Primary

July 16, 2024

The winner of the September 18 special election will complete the term of the late Donald Payne Jr.

Introducing the 2024 Presidential Election Simulator

July 13, 2024

Run a simulated Biden - Trump election or view the results of 25,000 daily simulations

Electoral Maps: Compare the Consensus Forecast to Polling

July 6, 2024

A side-by-side look at how the experts see the November, 2024 presidential election and what the polls currently show.

Live Results: Wisconsin State Senate Special Primary

July 2, 2024

Begins the process of filling the vacancy in this Milwaukee area seat

Republican Michael Rulli, Winner of Ohio Special Election, Sworn in to Congress

June 26, 2024

The GOP partisan advantage expanded to 219-213 with Tuesday's ceremony; the party also won a special election in Colorado