Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Biden Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Biden outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Overview and Live Results: New Jersey Primary
Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is termed-out; there are contested primaries in both parties.
Live Results: June 10 Legislative Special Elections
Seven elections will fill vacancies across three states
Live Results: San Antonio and Garland Texas Mayoral Runoffs
San Antonio hasn't elected a GOP mayor in 30 years, but this race looks competitive
Election Recap June 3, 2025: Dems Hold State House Seat in South Carolina
On a related note, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has scheduled the special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly
Live Results: South Carolina State House District 50 Special Election
This will fill the one vacancy in the Republican-dominated chamber
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