Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Biden Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Biden outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Overview and Live Results: Rhode Island State Senate Special Primary
The seat opened with the April death of long time state Sen. Dominick Ruggerio
Tennessee Republican Rep. Mark Green to Resign from Congress July 20
He previously announced his intention to take a job in the private sector
Reps. Evans and Johnson to Leave House; Now 16 Retirements in 2026 Cycle
Both represent safe seats for the incumbent party; Johnson is running for South Dakota governor
Live Results: New York City Ranked Choice Tabulation
Zohran Mamdani is expected to move one step closer to being certified as the Democratic nominee for mayor
Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year
He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation
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