Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Biden Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Biden outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Map :
Colorado Republicans Choose Placeholder Candidate
Biden Mocks Trump for Playing Golf
Biden Raises Money with Obama and Clinton
Trump Is a Ringmaster of Multiple Sideshows
Biden Campaign Gathers Major Donors in New York
Headlines
Live Results: Alabama State House Special Election
Democrats will try and flip one of the few competitive legislative districts in the state
Joe Biden Wins Missouri Democratic Primary
The party-run primary this past Saturday adds over 60 delegates to the president's total
Live Results: Louisiana Presidential Primary
Presumptive nominees Trump and Biden expected to pad their insurmountable delegate leads
Overview and Live Results: Illinois and Ohio Primaries
The marquee race is the Republican primary for Senate in Ohio. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is seeking his 4th term.
Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus
The territory holds the first GOP contest since Donald Trump clinched the nomination
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