FiveThirtyEight House Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated every four hours, this is an interactive House map derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 House Election Forecast

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House election forecast.

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up

Note: This color is used for Libertarian (MI-3)

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House Elections 2020

Current 233 197 1 4*
Consensus Forecast 232 182 0 21
Forecast

Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Don Young
1973 24th
6.5% 15.2%
Alyse Galvin
Don Young*
AR-2 French Hill
2015 3rd
6.3% 10.7%
Joyce Elliott
French Hill*
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 5th
10.3% 10.0%
Hiral Tipirneni
David Schweikert*
CA-21 TJ Cox
2019 1st
0.5% 15.5%
TJ Cox*
David Valadao
CA-25 Mike Garcia
2020 1st
8.7% 6.7%
Christy Smith
Mike Garcia*
CA-39 Gil Cisneros
2019 1st
3.1% 8.6%
Gil Cisneros*
Young Kim
CA-48 Harley Rouda
2019 1st
7.1% 1.7%
Harley Rouda*
Michelle Steel
CO-3 Scott Tipton
2011 5th
7.9% 12.0%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
Diane Bush
Lauren Boebert
FL-15 Ross Spano
2019 1st
6.0% 10.0%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
Alan Cohn
Scott Franklin
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
2019 1st
1.7% 16.3%
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell*
Carlos Gimenez
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 5th
0.1% 6.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Carolyn Bourdeaux
Rich McCormick
IA-1 Abby Finkenauer
2019 1st
5.0% 3.5%
Abby Finkenauer*
Ashley Hinson
IA-2 David Loebsack
2007 7th
12.1% 4.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Rita Hart
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
IA-3 Cindy Axne
2019 1st
2.1% 3.5%
Cindy Axne*
David Young
IL-13 Rodney Davis
2013 4th
1.1% 5.5%
Betsy Londrigan
Rodney Davis*
IN-5 Susan Brooks
2013 4th
13.5% 11.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Christina Hale
Victoria Spartz
MI-3 Justin Amash
2011 5th
11.2% 9.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Hillary Scholten
Peter Meijer
MI-6 Fred Upton
1987 17th
4.5% 8.4%
Jon Hoadley
Fred Upton*
MN-1 Jim Hagedorn
2019 1st
0.4% 14.9%
Dan Feehan
Jim Hagedorn*
MN-7 Collin Peterson
1991 15th
4.2% 30.8%
Collin Peterson*
Michelle Fischbach
MO-2 Ann Wagner
2013 4th
3.9% 10.3%
Jill Schupp
Ann Wagner*
MT-AL Greg Gianforte
2017 2nd
4.6% 20.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Kathleen Williams
Matt Rosendale
NC-2 George Holding
2013 4th
N/A 24.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Deborah Ross
Alan Swain
NC-6 Mark Walker
2015 3rd
N/A 21.5%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Kathy Manning
Lee Haywood
NC-8 Richard Hudson
2013 4th
N/A 9.1%
Patricia Timmons-Goodson
Richard Hudson*
NC-11 OPEN
N/A 17.3%
Moe Davis
Madison Cawthorn
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 2nd
1.9% 2.2%
Kara Eastman
Don Bacon*
NJ-2 Jeff Van Drew
2019 1st
7.6% 4.6%
Amy Kennedy
Jeff Van Drew*
NJ-7 Tom Malinowski
2019 1st
5.0% 1.1%
Tom Malinowski*
Thomas Kean, Jr
NM-2 Xochitl Torres Small
2019 1st
1.8% 10.2%
Xochitl Torres Small*
Yvette Herrell
NV-3 Susie Lee
2019 1st
9.0% 1.0%
Susie Lee*
Daniel Rodimer
NY-1 Lee Zeldin
2015 3rd
6.0% 12.3%
Nancy Goroff
Lee M. Zeldin*
NY-2 Peter King
1993 14th
6.7% 9.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Jackie Gordon
Andrew Garbarino
NY-11 Max Rose
2019 1st
5.9% 9.8%
Max Rose*
Nicole Malliotakis
NY-22 Anthony Brindisi
2019 1st
1.2% 15.5%
Anthony Brindisi*
Claudia Tenney
NY-24 John Katko
2015 3rd
6.2% 3.6%
Dana Balter
John M Katko*
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 5th
4.2% 6.6%
Kate Schroder
Steve Chabot*
OK-5 Kendra Horn
2019 1st
1.3% 13.4%
Kendra Horn*
Stephanie Bice
OR-4 Peter DeFazio
1987 17th
15.0% 0.1%
Peter DeFazio*
Alek Skarlatos
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
2017 2nd
2.5% 2.0%
Christina Finello
Brian Fitzpatrick*
PA-10 Scott Perry
2013 4th
2.6% 8.9%
Eugenio DePasquale
Scott Perry*
SC-1 Joe Cunningham
2019 1st
1.3% 13.1%
Joe Cunningham*
Nancy Mace
TX-3 Van Taylor
2019 1st
10.0% 14.2%
Lulu Seikaly
Van Taylor*
TX-10 Michael McCaul
2005 8th
3.9% 9.0%
Mike Siegel
Michael McCaul*
TX-21 Chip Roy
2019 1st
2.8% 10.0%
Wendy Davis
Chip Roy*
TX-22 Pete Olson
2009 6th
4.9% 7.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Sri Preston Kulkarni
Troy Nehls
TX-23 Will Hurd
2015 3rd
0.4% 3.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Gina Jones
Tony Gonzales
TX-24 Kenny Marchant
2005 8th
3.2% 6.2%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Candace Valenzuela
Beth Duyne
UT-4 Ben McAdams
2019 1st
0.2% 6.7%
Ben McAdams*
Burgess Owens
VA-2 Elaine Luria
2019 1st
2.2% 3.4%
Elaine Luria*
Scott Taylor
VA-5 Denver Riggleman
2019 1st
6.5% 11.1%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
Cameron Webb
Bob Good
VA-7 Abigail Spanberger
2019 1st
1.9% 6.5%
Abigail Spanberger*
Nick Freitas
WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler
2011 5th
5.3% 7.4%
Carolyn Long
Jaime Herrera Beutler*

(a)Source: Daily Kos, 270toWin research. The margin is the percentage difference between the top two vote-getters in 2018.
More recent results (i.e., special elections held in 2019-20 for vacancies) are not displayed.
* Race was uncontested | ^Top two vote-getters were from the same party

(b)Source: Daily Kos. The margin is the percentage difference between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.