Simulator Enhancements: Bellwether and Tipping Point Frequencies Added
August 1, 2020
We've added bellwether and tipping point frequencies to the 2020 presidential election simulator. This information has also been added to the simulator daily trends page, where we show the results by state for the most recent day's run of 25,000 simulations (scroll toward bottom of the page).
Bellwether: Percentage of simulations where the nominee winning a state also wins the election.
Tipping Point: This is the state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering the states won from largest to smallest margin of victory.
The top 5 states in each category for July 31 are below.
Headlines
The Road to 270: Texas
With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground
Polling Map with No Toss-ups
This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin
Delaware Wraps up the 2020 Primary Season: Overview and Live Results
The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection
The Road to 270: Wisconsin
50 days from the presidential election, we look at this Midwestern battleground that, prior to Trump's win, had not voted Republican for president since 1984
New Hampshire and Rhode Island Primaries: Overview and Live Results
A few interesting contests, although the incumbent party is favored in November in all these races
