August 1, 2020
We've added bellwether and tipping point frequencies to the 2020 presidential election simulator. This information has also been added to the simulator daily trends page, where we show the results by state for the most recent day's run of 25,000 simulations (scroll toward bottom of the page).
Bellwether: Percentage of simulations where the nominee winning a state also wins the election.
Tipping Point: This is the state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering the states won from largest to smallest margin of victory.
The top 5 states in each category for July 31 are below.
Partisan breakdown by state now and projected. Assign toss-up districts to see national results - useful in the case of an electoral college tie.
Connecticut holds the final presidential primary of 2020 while a member of 'The Squad' faces a primary challenge in Minnesota.
No state has had a longer period of voting Democratic in presidential elections. Donald Trump made it close in 2016, but the streak is likely to continue in 2020
Four Democrats are competing to replace the retiring Tulsi Gabbard. Both districts are safely Democratic in November.
The forecaster made 29 changes Friday, moving 27 of them in the direction of Democrats