Simulator Enhancements: Bellwether and Tipping Point Frequencies Added
By 270toWin Staff
August 1, 2020
We've added bellwether and tipping point frequencies to the 2020 presidential election simulator. This information has also been added to the simulator daily trends page, where we show the results by state for the most recent day's run of 25,000 simulations (scroll toward bottom of the page).
Bellwether: Percentage of simulations where the nominee winning a state also wins the election.
Tipping Point: This is the state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering the states won from largest to smallest margin of victory.
The top 5 states in each category for July 31 are below.
Headlines
Reps. Evans and Johnson to Leave House; Now 16 Retirements in 2026 Cycle
Both represent safe seats for the incumbent party; Johnson is running for South Dakota governor
Live Results: New York City Ranked Choice Tabulation
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Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year
He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation
Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
A formal announcement will come Monday; Bacon was seen as among the more endangered Republicans next year
Overview and Live Results: New York City Mayoral Primary
Several other city offices are on the ballot
