Two Days Out: Updated Senate Rankings and Poll Averages

November 4, 2018

There hasn't been all that much movement in the Senate races since we first published this chart last Sunday.  Small changes in the polling averages (choose a state) and FiveThirtyEight Classic Model probabilities; no changes at all in the consensus forecaster rating

A few notes:

  • All the 'safe' seats still seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability. 
  • The momentum of Michigan GOP nominee John James seems to have stalled. Sen. Debbie Stabenow has led by 9% or more in the three most recent polls. James did have one of the more amusing tweets this past week, however. 
  • As a result, Michigan joins the other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) as looking pretty safe for the incumbents.  All are now in that FiveThirtyEight category, with a Democratic probability above 95%.
  • The biggest discrepancy between FiveThirtyEight and the consensus seems to be in Montana, where FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Jon Tester an 87.6% chance of being re-elected.
  • In Nevada, Jacky Rosen has led in the three most recent polls, putting her just slightly ahead of Sen Dean Heller in the average.
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