August 23, 2016
The Clinton campaign is opening a field office in Salt Lake City, the USA Today reports. Although no Democrat has won the state since 1964 and Mitt Romney won by almost 50 points in 2012, the campaign sees an opportunity in the high unfavorable ratings for Donald Trump.
A new poll out today, however, shows it will be a steep climb. Public Policy finds Trump ahead by 20 points in a head-head match-up vs. Clinton. When third parties are included, Trump's lead drops to 15 points, with Gary Johnson receiving 12%. Independent Evan McMullin, who entered the race on August 10th, is at 9%. (McMullin, a member of the Mormon church, would be expected to see his best numbers in the state, where he is already on the ballot.)
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.