Updated Electoral Map Based on Polls has Clinton Ahead 249-164

August 9, 2016

The latest version of the Electoral Map based on polling gives Hillary Clinton a 249-164 lead over Donald Trump. 125 electoral votes, from nine states and Maine's 2nd District are currently seen as toss-ups. For purposes of the polling map, a toss-up state is where the average difference between Clinton and Trump is five points are less.  Leaning states are 5-10 points, with the darkest blue or red reserved for states where the 2016 presidential polls show a spread of greater than ten points.

The map shows that the battlegrounds of recent elections remain competitive, with Georgia and Arizona also looking to be in play. It is also worth noting that if the above map plays out, Florida becomes a must win for the Trump campaign, as a loss there puts Clinton over 270 electoral votes. 

State-level polling should begin to pick up in earnest in the weeks ahead, so the map will undoubtedly shift as that happens, and as the campaigns decide the level of resources to commit in each state.

Note that we've slightly modified the methodology with this update. For states with no current polling (nothing after April), we are basing the categorization on a combination of what polling is available and the 2012 actual margin of victory. If no polling at all, then it is exclusively based on 2012. This moved a few states that were not particularly competitive in 2012, but that were shown as toss-up based on a single, outdated poll, into the leaning category.  These include Alaska, Minnesota, Mississippi and South Carolina.

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