Republican Polling Update for Tuesday's East Coast Primaries

April 23, 2016

Voters in five Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states head to the polls on April 26th as the primary schedule remains on the East Coast after this past Tuesday's New York primary. As in that state, the demographics and polls point toward another good day for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. 

Trump currently leads the Republican field with 845 delegates, nearly 300 ahead of Ted Cruz. After New York, Trump is the only candidate with a plausible path to gathering the required 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination prior to the Republican Convention. 118 pledged delegates will be up for grabs on Tuesday, with another 54 unbound delegates being elected directly (in Pennsylvania). 

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure, as we understand it. The poll hours, all Eastern time, are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. (It does look like the polls close at 8PM in all five states). Click/tap a state name for more details.  

Pennsylvania The state will send 71 delegates to the Convention, although only 17 will be bound to the winner of Tuesday's statewide vote. The remaining 54 will be directly elected, three in each of the state's 18 congressional districts. These delegates are unbound, although they can make their leanings known in advance of the election. Polling points to a Trump win statewide: He's averaging in the mid 40s, with Cruz and Kasich in a tight battle for 2nd, some 20 points back. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Maryland 14 of 38 delgates will go to the statewide winner. The remaining 24 will be allocated, in groups of 3, to the winner of each of the state's eight congressional districts. Trump has led all recent polling, and is averaging 41%, 14 points ahead of Kasich, who is slightly ahead of Cruz. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 10 points over Cruz. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM.

Connecticut The state has 28 delegates. 13 of these will be based on the statewide result. If Trump exceeds 50% (he's just under that in limited polling), he'll earn those 13. Otherwise, they'll be allocated proportionately among any candidate reaching 20%. The state's five congressional districts are winner take all, 3 per district. It appears the polls are open from 6AM to 8PM. 

Rhode Island The state has 19 delegates to be allocated to those meeting a 10% threshold. There's been no recent polling; a new poll from Brown University is expected on Sunday. 13 delegates will be distributed proportionately based on the statewide vote. The other six will be based on the two congressional districts. Best as we can tell, each of the three candidates will end up with two of these. Polls close at 8PM; opening time appears to be 7AM in most of the state.

Delaware The 16 delegates go to the statewide winner. The only poll, released earlier in the week, showed Trump far ahead of the other candidates. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Taken together, it looks like Trump is positioned to pick up 90-100 of those 118 delegates on Tuesday. Use our interactive delegate calculator to see if you can get him to 1,237.

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