March 18, 2015
A new poll from CNN-ORC shows Hillary Clinton with a double-digit lead over her prospective Republican challengers for 2016. These large leads, however, are generally a few points less than when CNN-ORC last surveyed the race in December, 2014.
Republican Primary: Jeb Bush has a small lead over Scott Walker and Rand Paul, with Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson next. No Republican received more than mid teens preference. Scott Walker and Jeb Bush are virtually tied in our 270toWin national average.
Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton received 62% of those responding, with Joe Biden at 15% and Elizabeth Warren at 10%. Hillary is polling almost 60% in the 270toWin average, with Biden and Warren battling it out for a distant 2nd.
General Election: Clinton leads by 11-16% over every prospective Republican opponent surveyed, with Rand Paul performing best. Clinton consistently came in at about 55%, each Republican within a couple points of 40%. This seems to indicate a pretty rigid adherence to party preference at this point. Whether and how much that changes as the Republicans become more well-known will go a long way to determining how competitive 2016 will be.