Kalshi 2024 Presidential Election Markets
Current as of Map Timestamp
This is an electoral map based on the Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election.
The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Toss-up (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+).
The final update for this map on 270toWin will be the evening prior to Election Day.
For real-time market pricing, which will change frequently as results come in, see this map at the Kalshi website.
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Headlines
Reps. Evans and Johnson to Leave House; Now 16 Retirements in 2026 Cycle
Both represent safe seats for the incumbent party; Johnson is running for South Dakota governor
Live Results: New York City Ranked Choice Tabulation
Zohran Mamdani is expected to move one step closer to being certified as the Democratic nominee for mayor
Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year
He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation
Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
A formal announcement will come Monday; Bacon was seen as among the more endangered Republicans next year
Overview and Live Results: New York City Mayoral Primary
Several other city offices are on the ballot
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