FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-only forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls alone tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
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ME
NE

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Headlines

Louisiana Presidential Primary Results

July 11, 2020

Twice rescheduled due to the coronavirus, Pelican State residents will have their chance to weigh in on the race Saturday.

Eight Senate Ratings Changes from Inside Elections

July 10, 2020

All changes favor Democrats in seats being defended by GOP incumbents

Delaware and New Jersey Primaries: Overview and Live Results

July 7, 2020

Both states hold their rescheduled presidential primaries; New Jersey also offers some interesting congressional contests

Unanimous Supreme Court Says States Can Punish or Replace Faithless Electors

July 6, 2020

Settles various court cases emerging from the 2016 election that saw 10 electors attempt to be faithless to their pledged candidate

The Road to 270: South Carolina

July 6, 2020

Bordered by two competitive 2020 states (NC and GA), the state seems safe for Trump. It remains to be seen if his coattails help reelect Graham and/or regain SC-1

States of Play: Georgia

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States...

The Clock’s Ticking for Kanye

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The House: Democratic Murmurings in the Texas Suburbs – and Elsewhere

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The Rise of Ranked-Choice Voting

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