FiveThirtyEight Now-Cast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the now-cast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "who would win the election if it were held today." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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ME
NE

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Headlines

Legislative Special Elections in Virginia and New Hampshire

March 28, 2023

A state senate election in Virginia and state house primaries in New Hampshire. Both seats are solidly Democratic

Live Results: Louisiana House District 93 Special Election

March 25, 2023

An unusual Saturday special election sees two Democrats vying for this vacant New Orleans seat

Live Results: Jacksonville Mayor, Georgia State House Special Election

March 21, 2023

Voters in the largest city with a Republican mayor select a replacement for the term-limited incumbent.

Live Results: Oklahoma Marijuana Legalization

March 7, 2023

A yes vote in this special election would make Oklahoma the 22nd state to legalize recreational marijuana

Live Florida Election Results: Tampa Mayor, House District 24 Special GOP Primary

March 7, 2023

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor should cruise to a 2nd term; five Republicans compete for an Ocala-area House vacancy

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