FiveThirtyEight Now-Cast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the now-cast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "who would win the election if it were held today." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Fundraising Is Priority for Trump’s Veep

“Fundraising ability will be a key factor in former President Trump’s...

Trump’s Get-Out-The-Vote Plan is Bonkers

Washington Monthly: “The Trump campaign is tasking the far-right Turning Point network...

Biden’s Campaign Theme Is Trump Is Worse Now

Washington Post: “The notion that the former president changed — becoming more self-obsessed,...

Networks Will Simulcast CNN’s Debate Feed

“Broadcast and cable networks, including Fox News and ABC, are falling in line to...

Biden Begins Debate Prep

Playbook: “Joe Biden has fled Washington for Camp David to prepare for next week’s...

Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Oklahoma and Virginia Primaries; Georgia Runoffs

June 18, 2024

Having alienated much of the GOP, Rep. Bob Good (VA-05) is at risk of becoming one of the first incumbents to lose a primary this year

Live Results: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina Primaries

June 10, 2024

There is also a special election for a congressional vacancy in Ohio

Guam and U.S. Virgin Islands Democratic Caucuses

June 7, 2024

The final nominating contests for 2024 take place in two U.S. territories

Live Results: Primaries in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota

June 4, 2024

Several down-ballot races of note, along with the final state-run presidential primaries of this cycle.

Overview and Live Results: Texas Primary Runoff Elections

May 28, 2024

30 runoffs for U.S. House and State Legislative seats where no candidate received a majority in the March 5 primary