FiveThirtyEight Now-Cast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the now-cast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "who would win the election if it were held today." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: North Dakota Republican Presidential Caucus

March 4, 2024

On the eve of Super Tuesday, 29 delegates will be up for grabs

Overview and Live Results: District of Columbia Republican Presidential Primary

March 3, 2024

The three day party-run primary ends Sunday; 19 delegates are available

Overview and Results: Republican Caucuses in Idaho, Michigan, and Missouri

March 2, 2024

Already unusual as the second half of a two-part nominating contest, Michigan's caucuses have turmoil surrounding competing party factions

Overview and Live Results: Michigan Presidential Primary

February 27, 2024

Democrats pushed the state to the front of the nominating calendar; Republicans will hold a split event to accommodate party rules

Overview and Live Results: South Carolina Republican Primary

February 24, 2024

The winner of this primary has been the GOP nominee in all but one cycle since 1980