2016 Election: Clinton vs. Trump

This isn’t a popularity contest™
The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election as a Trump vs. Clinton forecast. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below.

This is the final pre-election polling map. See the State Winners Map for who actually won each state. This map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2016 presidential election primarily based on recent polling. You can see how the map has changed over time. For more information and individual poll results, see the polling averages page. 

Close states (poll difference between Clinton and Trump averaging 5 points or less) are shown as toss up (tan). Leaning states (5-10 points) are a lighter blue/red. Darker blue/red states are averaging a spread of greater than 10 points.

no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Headlines

Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

September 22, 2020

Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight

The Road to 270: Texas

September 21, 2020

With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground

Polling Map with No Toss-ups

September 16, 2020

This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin

Delaware Wraps up the 2020 Primary Season: Overview and Live Results

September 15, 2020

The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection

The Road to 270: Wisconsin

September 14, 2020

50 days from the presidential election, we look at this Midwestern battleground that, prior to Trump's win, had not voted Republican for president since 1984

Rating Changes: Maine Senate Moves to Leans Democratic

Dear Readers: On Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern, we’ll...

The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasts of the 2020 Presidential Election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Trial-Heat...

The Dreaded 269-269 Scenario: An Update

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for...

The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part Two: The Electoral College

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden is better...