2020 Election Competitive States

This isn’t a popularity contest™

This electoral map shows those states decided by 10% or less in popular vote in the 2020 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your 2024 presidential election forecast.

14 states, along with one district in each of Maine and Nebraska met this criteria. This is down from 17 states in 2016 as Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia exited the list. ME-2, decided by just over 10% in 2016, was added.

no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

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Headlines

New Orleans State Senate District 7 Special All Party Primary Election

June 12, 2021

The former incumbent, Democrat Troy Carter, resigned after being elected to Congress in an April special election.

GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler to Run for Open Missouri U.S. Senate Seat

June 10, 2021

She joins what will be a crowded field hoping to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Roy Blunt

Rep. Val Demings Announces 2022 Challenge to Sen. Marco Rubio

June 9, 2021

This move was widely expected and is now official. The Florida senate seat is one of 34 to be contested in 2022.

Recap of Virginia and New Jersey Primary Results

June 9, 2021

Virginia Democrats nominated Terry McAuliffe, while New Jersey Republicans chose Jack Ciattarelli. Democrats are favored in both states this November.

Overview and Live Results: Virginia Primary

June 8, 2021

Democrats will choose a nominee to succeed termed-out Ralph Northam; both parties will nominate for seats in the House of Delegates

Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot

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Virginia: McAuliffe’s Chance to Defy History Once Again

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Differential Privacy and the Upcoming Process of Redistricting

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The NM-1 Special: Democrats Hold Serve

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